December 22, 2022
For the gambling degenerates, here are my Week 16 NFL picks. To note, the team logos indicate who I think will win the game, not cover the spread. At the end of the picks, I'll note a few teams that I like based on the spread.
Also, I should note that I have an absolutely nasty flu, so I am not bringing the 🔥 analysis. My apologies.
Jaguars at Jets (-2): I don't love taking the Jags on the road as they are historically an atrocious road team, but if they win out, they will win the AFC South, and Trevor Lawrence is playing at a high level.
Bills (-8) at Bears: It is going to be frigid in Chicago this weekend (significantly worse than last weekend), so maybe that will create an equalizer for the Bears, in that it could be a low scoring game. But obviously, the Bills are a top 5 team and the Bears are a bottom 5 team.
Saints at Browns (-2.5): This is a huge game for the Saints pick owned by the Eagles, as it fell to ninth overall last weekend. The Saints' remaining opponents are the Browns, Eagles, and Panthers.
Texans at Titans (-3): The Texans put huge scares into the Cowboys and Chiefs the last two weeks, and the Titans are limping to the finish line.
Seahawks at Chiefs (-10): The Seahawks are who we thought they were.
Giants at Vikings (-4): The Giants don't have the defensive backs to match up with Justin Jefferson.
Bengals (-3) at Patri*ts: This line seems awfully low. The Bengals are rolling while the Patri*ts have been one of the worst coached teams in the NFL this season.
Lions (-2.5) at Panthers: The Lions have won six of seven. I'll keep riding them until they falter.
Falcons at Ravens (-7.5): The Ravens are going to be one-and-done in the playoffs again, aren't they?
Commanders at 49ers (-7): The Commanders blew it at home against the Giants last weekend, and their playoff hopes will be further compromised after they lose in San Francisco.Â
Eagles at Cowboys (-5): The Eagles are an objectively better football team than the Cowboys. They have arguably the best offensive line in the NFL, a top three group of receivers, an extremely deep and talented pass rush that leads the NFL in sacks, and they have both the best turnover differential and point differential in the NFL. They are sending eight players to the Pro Bowl, and the reality is that they probably could have sent 10 or 11. It is an absolutely loaded roster without any glaring holes.
The Cowboys' roster has star power (Micah Parsons, etc.), but it also has its share of concern areas, notably at offensive tackle, off-ball linebacker, cornerback, and wide receiver (CeeDee Lamb aside). There's little question that the Eagles' roster, quarterbacks aside, is better than the Cowboys' roster.
Of course, the Eagles are five-point underdogs in this matchup because they are very likely to start backup Gardner Minshew while Jalen Hurts' sprained shoulder heals up. One thing that Minshew has proven over his career is that he doesn't put the ball in harm's way. He has a career 41 TDs vs. 12 INTs, and he only has two career games in which he threw two INTs. Dak Prescott has thrown two INTs in four of his last six games.
I trust Minshew to make smart decisions and allow the elite roster around him to make enough plays to win this game.
Raiders at Steelers (-2): Who cares?
Packers at Dolphins (-3.5): The Dolphins have lost three straight, while the Packers have played better in recent weeks. I think the Packers are an interesting team to keep an eye on if they win this game. If they win out they'll be 9-8 and will have a decent shot of getting into the tourney.
Broncos (-2.5) at Rams: This is a huge game for draft order purposes. The Broncos pick (owned by Seattle) is currently third overall, while the Rams pick (owned by Detroit) is fourth.
Buccaneers (-7.5) at Cardinals: The Bucs close out their season against three bad opponents in the Cardinals, Panthers, and Falcons. It's the game against the Panthers that will matter most in deciding the NFC South.
Chargers (-4.5) at Colts: BDN gets the start.
• Last 8 years, ATS: 338-283-13 (0.543)
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