December 15, 2024
Lon Horwedel/Imagn Images
The Eagles will be rooting for Josh Allen and the Bills against the Lions on Sunday.
Each week we'll lay out a rooting guide for non-Eagles games on the NFL schedule for those of you on the fence while watching the other action around the league. Ideal winners bolded.
First, a look at the updated NFC East standings:
| NFC East | Record | Div record | GB |
| Eagles | 11-2 | 3-0 | - |
| Commanders | 8-5 | 2-2 | 3 |
| Cowboys | 5-8 | 3-1 | 6 |
| Giants | 2-11 | 0-5 | 9 |
The Eagles' lead over the Commanders remains at 3 games after the Eagles beat the Panthers and the Commanders beat the Titans Week 14. The Eagles now have a 99 percent chance of winning the division (as well as at least the 2 seed), per Inpredictable. In other words, barring an epic collapse and a long Commanders winning streak, the Eagles are going to win the NFC East.
The reason to root against the Commanders isn't so much to secure the division. It's more about the Eagles' first-round opponent in the playoffs, which we'll get to momentarily.
• Ravens at Giants: If the Giants and Raiders both lose all the rest of their games, it'll be a tight finish for the No. 1 overall pick that'll be dependent on each teams' strength of schedule. The Giants' strength of schedule is 0.543; the Raiders' is 0.541. So obviously, it could go either way. Both teams need quarterbacks, so it would be ideal if the Giants won another game or two and didn't have their pick of the litter.
Of course, even if they do, it appears to be a weak quarterback prospect draft with no consensus top guy. A look at some draft analysts' top 25 big boards, and where the top quarterbacks fall on their lists:
| Quarterback | Brugler | Kiper | Yates | PFF |
| Shedeur Sanders, Colorado | 23 | 3 | 14 | 21 |
| Jalen Milroe, Alabama | 22 | NR | 24 | 12 |
| Cam Ward, Miami | 16 | 8 | 17 | 14 |
Things may change as the draft process plays out, but for the sake of comparison, here's where each of the above big boards had the top QBs on their final top 25 big boards last year:
| Quarterback | Brugler | Kiper | Yates | PFF |
| Caleb Williams | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| Jayden Daniels | 8 | 2 | 2 | 21 |
| Drake Maye | 4 | 6 | 5 | 3 |
| J.J. McCarthy | 21 | 15 | 17 | NR |
| Michael Penix | NR | 24 | NR | NR |
The 2024 draft was stronger at the top of the draft, and deeper. The Giants, who were sitting at pick No. 6, did not make much of an effort to move up for Drake Maye, a player that "Hard Knocks" revealed they liked, and they did not want to settle on guys like J.J. McCarthy, Michael Penix, or Bo Nix.
This year, they may have to pick a McCarthy-level prospect first overall. Oh, and it'll be funny when they let Joe Schoen and Brian Daboll pick the quarterback, then fire them both in a year and hire a new GM/HC duo who did not pick the quarterback.
(Side note: Lol at PFF for having Jayden Daniels as their 21st best prospect.)
• Cowboys at Panthers: The Cowboys are done. Any wins that ruin their draft position or increase odds that Mike McCarthy will remain the head coach are welcomed.
As usual, let's first look at the NFC seeding if the season ended today (it doesn't).
| Seed | Team | Record | Conf record |
| 1 | Lions | 12-1 | 8-1 |
| 2 | Eagles | 11-2 | 6-2 |
| 3 | Seahawks | 8-5 | 4-4 |
| 4 | Buccaneers | 7-6 | 6-3 |
| 5 | Vikings | 11-2 | 6-2 |
| 6 | Packers | 9-4 | 4-4 |
| 7 | Commanders | 8-5 | 5-3 |
| 8 | Rams | 8-6 | 5-5 |
| 9 | Falcons | 6-7 | 6-3 |
| 10 | Cardinals | 6-7 | 3-6 |
| 11 | 49ers ☠️ | 6-8 | 4-6 |
| 12 | Saints ☠️ | 5-8 | 4-5 |
| 13 | Cowboys ☠️ | 5-8 | 3-5 |
| 14 | Bears ☠️ | 4-9 | 2-6 |
| 15 | Panthers ☠️ | 3-10 | 2-6 |
| 16 | Giants ☠️ | 2-11 | 1-9 |
The Eagles cannot be the 4 seed, and there is a less than 1 percent chance that they can be the 3 seed. Again, there is a 99 percent chance that they will be either the 2 seed (81 percent) or the 1 seed (18 percent), per Inpredictable.
• Bills at Lions: We posted this last week as well, but won't assume you read everything we publish, so once again... our Eagles-Lions tiebreaker primer:
• First tiebreaker: Head-to-head matchup: Not applicable.
• Second tiebreaker: Better conference record: Both of the Eagles' losses were to NFC teams, so they cannot win this tiebreaker if they and the Lions both finish 15-2. They can win it if they both teams finish 14-3, AND the Eagles' final loss is to the Steelers, AND all three of the Lions' losses are to NFC teams.
• Third tiebreaker: Record against common opponents (minimum of four): The Eagles and Lions have five common opponent this year, shown below:
| Common Opponent | Eagles result | Lions result |
| Rams | Win | Win |
| Buccaneers | Loss | Loss |
| Jaguars | Win | Win |
| Cowboys | Win, ??? | Win |
| Packers | Win | Win, Win |
As you can see, the Lions are 5-1 against their common opponents. With their win over the Packers Week 14, they clinched at least a tie in common opponent records.
• Fourth tiebreaker: Strength of victory in all games: The combined record of the teams the Lions have beaten is way higher than the combined record of the teams the Eagles have beaten.) I'm not calculating it again this week — you're just going to have to trust me. The Lions are going to win this tiebreaker.
Basically, the Eagles need the Lions to lose two more games. Their remaining schedule:
• Week 15: Bills (10-3)
• Week 16: At Bears (4-9)
• Week 17: At 49ers (6-8)
• Week 18: Vikings (11-2)
It's certainly possible that the Lions can lose two of their four remaining games, and the Bills are probably the Eagles' best chance of a Lions loss.
• Bears at Vikings: The Eagles also have to worry about the Vikings for the 1 seed, even if the Lions falter. The Eagles-Vikings tiebreaker would be decided by strength of victory. As Deniz Selman mapped out, the Vikings' would be highly likely to win that tiebreaker:
If #Eagles & MIN both finish 15-2, it will go all the way to strength of victory, for which the running tally of uncommon victories currently looks favorable to MIN. 👇 (Eagles could theoretically catch up, but very unlikely.) https://t.co/vH8gwEY4AO pic.twitter.com/SfGWi60RKH
— Deniz Selman (@denizselman33) December 11, 2024
So it's just better if the Vikings lose another game.
• Bengals at Titans: A Bengals win would help the Eagles' strength of victory tiebreaker scenario with the Vikings.
• Packers at Seahawks: If you'll notice in the NFC standings above, the Packers are currently the 6 seed, while the Commanders are only one game behind in the 7 seed spot. The Commanders have a better conference record, so they would win a tiebreaker over the Packers. If the Eagles got the Packers as a 2 vs. 7 first-round matchup while whatever mid team that gets the 3 seed got to face the 6 seed Commanders, that would be an absolutely terrible draw for the Eagles. The Packers are going to be in the playoffs anyway, so it's best if they just win a bunch of games and secure at least the 6 seed and out of harm's way in the first round.
• Commanders at Saints: It's best if the Commanders lose so they don't catch the Packers for the 6 seed.
• Buccaneers at Chargers: If the Buccaneers don't win the NFC South over the Falcons, they can still get in the playoffs as a 7 seed, but that would be unlikely since the Commanders and Rams both have better records. It's best if the Falcons win the division.
• Falcons at Raiders: The Falcons suck and it's better if they get in the playoffs.
• Patriots at Cardinals: The Cardinals suck and it's better if they get in the playoffs.
MORE: 5 things to watch in Eagles-Steelers
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