December 12, 2024
Bill Streicher/Imagn Images
The Eagles may not ask Jalen Hurts to throw a lot on Sunday, as usual.
For the gambling degenerates, here are our Week 15 NFL picks. To note, the team logos indicate who I think will win the game, not cover the spread. At the end of the picks, I'll note a few teams that I like based on the spread.
Rams at 49ers (-3): The Niners have gotten hot in the second halves of seasons in recent years, and while it may be too little too late, they did smack the Bears around last week like it was 2023.
Commanders (-7.5) at Saints: The Commanders have three blowout wins this season:
Washington is certainly capable of putting a lot of points on the board against bad teams. Still, at first glance, a 7.5-point spread on the road feels like a big number even with Derek Carr likely out. But when you look at the Saints' three games with Spencer Rattler as the starter, you can see why:
If Carr can't play, it'll either be Rattler or Jake Haener. Either way, I'm just going to stay away.
Dolphins at Texans (-3): Both of these teams are frauds, but the Dolphins are playing better of late, having won 4 of 5. This game will also be in a dome where the soft Dolphins won't be affected by colder conditions.
Jets (-3.5) at Jaguars: Via Tankathon:
It must really suck to be a Jets fan, just generally speaking, but this year is particularly awful given the high expectations of the season, and the reward might be that they don't even get a top 8 pick if they win a meaningless game or two down the stretch.
Bengals (-4.5) at Titans: The Titans have lost eight games by at least a touchdown, and they have the third-worst point differential in the NFL. I don't like this Bengals team because their defense sucks, but if there's one thing they can do it's score points. I'll lay the 4.5.
Ravens (-14.5) at Giants: The Giants and Raiders are jockeying for the right to having first choice of what is looking like an underwhelming quarterback draft class.
Chiefs (-4) at Browns: The Chiefs keep pulling out lucky, narrow wins, hence this seemingly low 4-point spread against a team that is 3-10. But the Browns have also lost four of their last five games by at least two scores. I'll take the Chiefs to finally put together a more aesthetically pleasing win. It could be rainy, windy weather in Cleveland on Sunday, but the Chiefs are no strangers to bad weather games.
Cowboys at Panthers (-3): The Panthers have played pretty well during their current 3-game losing streak, as they have lost to the Chiefs, Bucs, and Eagles by a combined 12 points. Still, the Cowboys are just a more talented team, even with their injuries. I haven't picked the Panthers to win a game in a long time, and I can't get myself to do it here, either.
Steelers at Eagles (-5): The Steelers will likely be without George Pickens, by far their best weapon in the passing game. If indeed he can't go, that will be a big blow to Pittsburgh's passing attack, even if it's been much improved going from Justin Fields to Russell Wilson. The Eagles also happen to have the No. 2 pass defense in the NFL, allowing just 178.5 passing yards per game.
Meanwhile, the Eagles' passing attack has had its issues for most of the season, and particularly over the last month or so. Both teams' passing attacks are not what they could/should be in this matchup, for differing reasons.
The Eagles are Steelers are the two most run-heavy teams in the NFL.
| Team | Run percentage |
| Eagles | 56.5% |
| Steelers | 51.6% |
| Packers | 50.8% |
| Ravens | 50.5% |
| Lions | 50.3% |
But the Eagles do it better. Najee Harris is the Steelers' lead back, and he's a load at a listed height and weight of 6'1, 242. However, his numbers aren't super impressive. He has carried 223 times for 877 yards (3.9 YPC) and 5 TDs. By comparison, he has just 43 fewer carries than Saquon Barkley, but 746 fewer yards.
| RB | Rush | Yards | YPC | TD |
| Saquon Barkley | 266 | 1623 | 6.1 | 11 |
| Najee Harris | 223 | 877 | 3.9 | 5 |
The Eagles' defense held another big (and much more talented) back in the Ravens' Derrick Henry to 82 yards on 19 carries. They were also able to run it effectively against the Ravens' defense, which at the time was the No. 1 run defense in the NFL.
One other note: This Steelers team thrives on turnovers, as they lead the NFL with a +17 turnover differential. Say what you will about Jalen Hurts and the lack of punch in the passing game, but at least they aren't turning it over. I think this is yet another game where the Eagles simply outlast their opponent.
Bills at Lions (-2.5): This is the game of the week, and very well may be the two best teams in the NFL. I'll keep this short and sweet — I think the Bills are better.
Colts at Broncos (-3.5): The Broncos are 8-5 with a +71 point differential. The Colts are 6-7 with a -31 point differential. This 3.5-point spread favoring the home Broncos suggests that these teams are pretty close to evenly matched. They're not. The Broncos are very clearly the better team. I'll lay the 3.5.
Buccaneers at Chargers (-3): The Chargers beat the bad teams, lose to the good ones, as they have done throughout the entire Justin Herbert era. The Bucs are a good team, in my opinion, so, you know, I'll take them.
Patriots at Cardinals (-5.5): The Cardinals were favored to win the NFC West a few weeks ago, but after three straight losses they're now just 7 percent likely to make the playoffs, per Inpredictable. They should handle this bad Patriots team at home, though.
Packers (-2.5) at Seahawks: The Packers' four losses this season:
The aren't quite among the NFL's best teams, maybe just a tier below, but the Seahawks are the type of mid-level team that they can consistently beat
Bears at Vikings (-6.5): The Bears are awful and they didn't even get a "new head coach bump" last week. Their bags are packed for Cabo.
Falcons (-4) at Raiders: The Falcons stink but the Raiders are in contention for the No. 1 overall pick.
• Last 10 seasons, ATS: 437-370-21 (0.540)
MORE: Eagles power ranking roundup
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