Week 15 NFL picks

For the gambling degenerates, here are my Week 15 NFL picks. To note, the team logos indicate who I think will win the game, not cover the spread. At the end of the picks, I'll note a few teams that I like based on the spread.

Chargers at Raiders (-3): One team has a fraud head coach and is starting Easton Stick at quarterback. The other lost a 3-0 game last week. Both teams will almost certainly have new coaching staffs next season and are just kind of playing out the rest of the games on their schedules. I literally flipped a coin.

Vikings at Bengals (-2.5): This is a battle of backup quarterbacks. It'll be Jake Browning for the Bengals, and Nick Mullins for the Vikings.

This is a good Bengals roster and I like the way that they have played since Joe Burrow went down. Their offense has scored 34 points in each of the last two games under Browning, while the Vikings nearly played to a 0-0 tie last week. I've seen Mullins up close in Eagles training camp. I'll take (fill in almost any other quarterback here) over Mullins all day.

Steelers at Colts (-1.5): Shane Steichen has done an incredible job with this Colts team this season. Every time I look at that roster I wonder how they have as many wins as they do. At the same time, I have trouble picking any team starting Mitch Trubisky at quarterback, but I guess I just trust the Steelers' pass rush more than any other unit within this matchup? Give me the Steelers, I guess, with very little confidence.

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Broncos at Lions (-4): The Broncos have won six of seven, a stretch that included wins over five potential playoff teams in the Packers, Chiefs, Bills, Vikings, and Browns.

The Lions have hit a late-season funk, dropping two of three and nearly three of four while almost getting swept by the Bears. Maybe they're just not that good?

I like the Broncos in this matchup, but the fact that they are playing their third straight road game this late in the season makes me a little uneasy. How is that still happening, by the way?

Falcons (-3) at Panthers: The Falcons, Saints, and Buccaneers all get the benefit of playing this atrocious Panthers team twice per season, and yet there still isn't a team in the NFC South with a winning record. That's actually kind of remarkable.

Bears at Browns (-3): There are a lot of hard games to pick on the NFL slate this week, with so many quarterbacks around the league out of action. The Browns will be starting Joe Flacco, who has been reasonably competent in the two games he has played. 

But I kinda like the way the Bears have played of late. They have won three of four, and they actually have the No. 2 run defense in the NFL, which should come in handy against a Browns team that just wants to pound the run on offense and play good defense.

Texans at Titans (-2.5): C.J. Stroud is in the concussion protocol, and some of the Texans' other best players — Will Anderson, Laremy Tunsil, Blake Cashman, etc. — are banged up.

Chiefs (-7.5) at Patriots: Patrick Mahomes came off as very likable over his first half decade in the NFL, but over the last year or so he has become almost insufferable to watch because he complains to the officials on almost every negative play. Back in early November, I expressed this thought on Twitter, and as you might imagine Chiefs fans came to the defense of their guy. 

Mahomes is pretty hard to defend on the crybaby front after his childish tantrums on Sunday, in the wake of a Chiefs loss during which a correctly called offensive offsides penalty wiped out a touchdown.

Mahomes was already getting extreme "star treatment," as he was a major beneficiary of a borderline call that got him to the Super Bowl last year...

...and then another one that helped him win it, of course.

Anyway, I expect the Chiefs to pound the Patriots a week after a game they feel was taken from them (even though it wasn't).

Giants at Saints (-6): The Giants aren't the worst team in the NFL. Congrats to them! 🎉

The betting markets are undervaluing the Giants, and overvaluing the sucky-ass Saints. I'll take the Saints to win, but give me the Giants (+6).

Jets at Dolphins (-8.5): This is kind of a must-win game for the Dolphins, who close the season at home against Dallas Week 16, in Baltimore Week 17, and and at home against Buffalo Week 18. Their cushion in the AFC East is down to two games.

Buccaneers at Packers (-3): Just when you think the Packers stink, Jordan Love puts on a Superman cape and balls out. And then just when you start to think, "Ooh, this team could be a problem in the playoffs," they lose to teams like the Falcons, or the Raiders, or the Giants, etc. These inconsistent teams are NFL pickers' nightmare.

49ers (-12.5) at Cardinals: The 49ers have had their share of road blowout wins this season.

1. 30-7 in Pittsburgh
2. 34-3 in Jacksonville
3. 31-13 in Seattle
4. 42-19 in Philly

They have also outscored the Cardinals by a combined score of 111-39 in their last three matchups, which were all at least three-score wins.

I don't normally don't like to lay a lot of points, but this one looks good to me at just under 13.

Commanders at Rams (-6.5): The Commanders are coming off their bye after losing four straight. They allowed 150 points (37.5 per game) during that four-game slide.

The Rams won three straight before taking the Ravens to overtime in Baltimore.

There are some teams that have not yet quit on the season (like the Giants, for example), and there are some teams that look like they can't wait to book a trip to Cabo. The Commanders feel like the latter, and we already know that Josh Harris condones tanking. 

Cowboys at Bills (-2): Hot take alert 🚨🔥🚨: The Bills are the best team in the AFC. Or course, that probably has more to do with the AFC being barren of elite teams this season, but whatever. They may be 7-6, but they are obviously a far better team than their record would indicate.

In the NFC, there are two teams that are playing a really high level of football right now, and the Cowboys are one of them. I have my concerns about them playing on the road, but it's hard to bet against Dak Prescott at the moment. I won't be picking against the Cowboys or the 49ers until I see them falter.

Ravens (-3) at Jaguars: I trust Lamar Jackson to win big games... during the regular season.

Eagles (-3.5) at Seahawks: The Eagles' pass defense has been terrible the last two games against the 49ers and Cowboys, and they'll face a Seahawks team with a dangerous trio of wide receivers in DK Metcalf, Tyler Lockett, and rookie Jaxon Smith-Njigba. So, you know, that's troubling. 

However, the Seahawks' offense has been erratic this season, and they're banged up. Geno Smith did not play against the Niners Week 14, and the Seahawks' running backs, Kenneth Walker and Zach Charbonnet, were both listed as questionable. There are also a number of matchup advantages that are in the Eagles' favor this week:

1. I like Dallas Goedert's chances of having a productive day against safeties Jamal Adams and 5'9" Quandre Diggs.
2. The Seahawks have struggled stopping the run this season.
3. The Eagles' defensive line has been disappointing of late, but they should have matchup advantages across the board against a very young Seahawks offensive line.

This is a game that both of these teams desperately need to win. The Eagles have dropped two straight, and it feels like the sky is falling in Philly. Pressure is on to, uh, get rid of some of that pressure. The Seahawks, meanwhile, were at one time leading the NFC West, but they have lost four straight and are in danger of missing the playoffs entirely. Should that happen, I would imagine Pete Carroll's job would be in severe danger.

A season ago, the Seahawks fizzled down the stretch and then got blown out in the playoffs. The Eagles faced some adversity with an injury to Jalen Hurts, but they were able to right the ship and go on a playoff run to the Super Bowl.

The Eagles are the better team, they have more veteran leadership, and they're finally playing a game in which their opponent doesn't have a significant rest advantage.

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• Eagles picks (straight up): 10-3
• Eagles picks (ATS): 5-6-2

• Last 9 years, ATS: 378-325-18 (0.537)

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