December 17, 2020
For the gambling enthusiasts, here are my Week 15 NFL picks. To note, the team logos indicate who I think will win the game, not cover the spread. At the end of the picks, I'll note a few teams that I like based on the spread. All the below spreads are courtesy of the consensus Week 15 odds at TheLines.com.
Chargers at Raiders (-3): The Raiders have been faders down the stretch. Boom. That rhymes, and you know it rhymes. Admit it. Their last three games:
They're now on the outside of the playoff picture, looking in. I don't exactly love the Chargers either, as their four wins this season have come against the Bengals, Jags, Jets, and Falcons. They're now mathematically eliminated from the playoffs. I guess I'll take the Raiders, who at least have something to play for.
Bills (-6) at Broncos: The Bills are the second-best team in the NFL. Is that a hot take? Anyway, they can clinch the AFC East with a win in Denver. They'll do that.
Panthers at Packers (-8): MVP candidate Aaron Rodgers should be able to handle a defense that is allowing a collective 101.0 QB rating to opposing quarterbacks. And they won't be sleeping on the Panthers, as they need this win to keep their positioning as the 1 seed in the NFC.
Lions at Titans (-10.5): Matthew Stafford may or may not play in this game with a rib injury, hence the 10.5-point line. With their head coach and general manager having already been fired in-season, this is a clear situation in which an owner should step in and actively hold Stafford out in favor of the long-term interests of the team.
If Stafford can't go, Chase Daniel will get the start.
49ers (-3.5) at Cowboys: Nick Mullens stinks, and the Niners' rushing offense hasn't been anywhere near as effective as last year due to a number of key injuries, which will help the Cowboys' pathetic run defense.
Bears at Vikings (-3): The Bears and Vikings are both 6-7, and fivethirtyeight.com gives them each roughly a 20 percent chance of making the playoffs. The loser will be done-done. The Bears snapped a six-game losing streak by thumping the Texans on Sunday, but they still stink. Meanwhile, the Vikings have lost some heartbreakers this year and are better than their record would indicate, in my view.
Buccaneers (-6) at Falcons: The Bucs are pretty much locked in as a wildcard team at this point, but they can still chase whichever of the Rams and Seahawks doesn't win the NFC West for the 5 seed, and thus the right to play the NFC East "winner" in the first round of the playoffs.
Texans at Colts (-7): The bottom eight teams in opposing passer rating, and their records:
| Team | Opposing QB rating |
| Texans (4-9) | 108.1 |
| Jaguars (1-12) | 107.0 |
| Jets (0-13) | 105.6 |
| Lions (5-8) | 104.6 |
| Cowboys (4-9) | 104.2 |
| Falcons (4-9) | 102.5 |
| Panthers (4-9) | 101.0 |
| Eagles (4-8-1) | 98.9 |
Anyway, the Texans' defense is trash, if that wasn't evident when they allowed 36 points to Mitchell Trubisky last Sunday.
Seahawks (-5.5) at Football Team: Alex Smith has a calf strain, which doesn't sound too bad, but when you're missing part of your calf as a result of one of the worst leg injuries in NFL history, it probably is. That's explained in greater detail here:
As such, Smith is likely to miss the Football Team's Week 15 game against the Seahawks, and it's possible he may not return at all. The Football Team protected two practice squad quarterbacks this week, which is telling:
Washington protected four practice-squad players this week. Two of them - Steven Montez and Taylor Heinicke - are quarterbacks.
— Ben Standig (@BenStandig) December 15, 2020
OT Rick Leonard and K Kaare Vedvik round out the group, per the transaction wire.
I really wanted to pick the Football Team outright here, but I just can't with Dwayne Haskins as the likely starter. If Smith doesn't return at all, I can almost hear a creaking sound of a door opening slightly for the Eagles to win the NFC East. Please God make it stop.
Patri*ts at Dolphins (-2): The Patri*ts have been good for a long time, and the Dolphins have been bad for a long time, and it takes folks a while to get used to change, hence this two-point spread. But if you've watched these two teams play this season, I don't know how anyone could possibly come to a conclusion that the Dolphins aren't significantly better. I'll lay the 2 all day.
Jaguars at Ravens (-13): The Ravens just played in one of the games of the year Monday night against the Browns, so it would be understandable if they came out a little flat against the Jags. I can't lay the 13, and at the same time I wouldn't trust this bad Jags team to keep it close. I'll stay away.
Jets at Rams (-17.5): After their near win against the Raiders, the seemingly demoralized Jets got wrecked by the Seahawks, 40-3. Taking 17.5 points is tempting, but no.
Eagles at Cardinals (-6): Stylistically, Jalen Hurts looked a little bit like early-career Russell Wilson in the Eagles' upset win over the Saints last Sunday. To be clear, we're not saying Hurts is anywhere near the talent that Wilson is at this stage in their respective careers. Hurts just looked kinda similar, in his ability to make off-schedule plays with his feet and his arm, while limiting negative plays by finding a way to get rid of the ball when it wasn't there.
Of course, the Cardinals have to game plan for Wilson two times per season, so they're likely to have a better plan for Hurts than the Saints had last Sunday, only on the back end they'll be facing receivers like Greg Ward, Alshon Jeffery, and Jalen Reagor, instead of DK Metcalf and Tyler Lockett. Not to mention, their defense faces Kyler Murray in practice all season.
Offensively, the Cardinals should be able to take advantage of a now injury-depleted Eagles secondary that will be without Rodney McLeod and Avonte Maddox, while a less than 100 percent Darius Slay tries to follow DeAndre Hopkins all day.
Also, there's this:
The Eagles have lost their last 5 bird vs. bird matchups.
— Jimmy Kempski (@JimmyKempski) December 16, 2020
Give me the Cardinals, comfortably.
Chiefs (-3) at Saints: Sean Payton said that Drew Brees has "a ways to go" in his recovery from rib fractures and a punctured lung. Even with Brees, I'll gladly lay the three points. Hell, offer me the Chiefs (-3) against any team, anywhere, and I'll probably bite. Without Brees, Taysom Hill isn't a legit starting QB, and he can't hang with Patrick Mahomes.
Browns (-5) at Giants: Daniel Jones came back from injury too soon last Sunday against the Cardinals, and was unable to make plays with his legs. This week, it'll either be an injured Jones or Colt McCoy. Haason Reddick sacked Giants quarterbacks five times in that Cards-Giants matchup. Myles Garrett will be licking his chops.
Wait, this is the Sunday Night Football game? Lol. Cris Collinsworth and Al Michaels are going to be into calling this game about as much as Tony Romo and Jim Nantz were into calling the Eagles-Packers game a couple weeks ago.
Steelers (-12.5) at Bengals: In 3.5 games since Joe Burrow tore his ACL, the Bengals have scored just 31 points. The Steelers have won 11 straight in this series.
• Picks against the spread: Cowboys (+3.5), Dolphins (-2), Cardinals (-6), Chiefs (-3), Browns (-5).
• Eagles picks: 7-5-1
• 2020 season, straight up: 137-68-1 (0.667)
• 2020 season, ATS: 38-28-2 (0.574)
• 2019 season, straight up: 160-107-1 (0.601)
• 2019 season, ATS: 42-35-3 (0.544)
• 2018 season, straight up: 173-94-2 (0.647)
• 2018 season, ATS: 41-36-2 (0.532)
• 2017 season, straight up: 181-86 (0.678)
• 2017 season, ATS: 36-32-2 (0.529)
• 2016 season, straight up: 171-94-2 (0.644)
• 2016 season, ATS: 41-34 (0.547)
• 2015 season, straight up: 163-93 (0.637)
• 2015 season, ATS: 46-30-2 (0.605)
• Last 6 years, ATS: 239-189-11 (0.557)
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