December 06, 2019
Each Friday for PhillyVoice, Steve Maltepes, known as “The Philly Godfather,” will impart his gambling wisdom on the Eagles and where the smart money is going on various pro football games this weekend. Maltepes is one of the nation’s hottest sports betting experts who appears weekly on national radio and has his own website, www.thephillygodfather.com.
What is the line telling you: Bookmakers opened this line with the Eagles being 8.5-point home favorites over the Giants with the total set at 46.5. With the news of Daniel Jones not playing, this line has shot up to as high as 10.5 at some of the sharper offshore betting houses, while the Super Book out in Las Vegas is still hanging a 9.5 on Philadelphia.
It's still early in the week but the bet splits. The ticket percentages on this game are at a 50/50 split.
After losing last week on the road in Miami as a double-digit favorites and a 90% implied win probability, everyone was leaving this Eagles team for dead to make the playoffs.
Bottom line: But here we go again, after the Cowboys losing to the Bears Thursday night, meaning an Eagles win would make them a small favorite to win the NFC East. Bet the under 46.5. On offense, over recent play, both the Giants (4.6) and Eagles (4.8) are averaging less than 5 yards per play. And if you guys remember in Eli Manning’s first two starts of the year, the Giants averaged only 15.5 points per game compared to 21 PPG with Jones.
What is the line telling you: Oddmakers offshore opened this line with the 10-2 Saints being small 3-point home favorites over the 49ers with the combined total set at 45.5. Since then, we've seen this early-week number float around from that key number of 3 down to 2.5 and back up to 3 before some real heavy money attacked the screen on the dog, which forced the books to drop this line down to 2 at one of the sharper offshore betting houses, Bet Cris.
When we peek over at the ticket count, the early bet slips on this game are currently showing a slightly top heavy tilt on the visiting 49ers, as 60% of all tickets punched offshore and in Vegas are on Kyle Shanahan’s team.
When you break down this game at first glance, you see two teams with the same exact record and some of the best metrics in the NFL.
Offensively, these two squads rank 9th and 10th in yards-per-play, and 5th and 9th in overall offensive efficiency, and 2nd and 8th in net-yards-per-play differential. When it comes to defense, the 49ers numbers are arguably the best in the NFL, ranked 1st in adjusted-sack-rate, opponent-yards-per-play, opponent-yards-per-pass attempt and 2nd in overall defensive efficiency. But the Saints aren't that far behind ranked 7th/7th/8th and 4th, respectively, in those same metrics. These teams average common opponent offensively and defensively are almost identical as well.
The only huge disparity was on defense, where the Saints are really weak in the Red Zone, ranked 20th in the NFL while the 49ers come in as the 2nd stingiest group in football. Add the fact that San Francisco’s average margin of victory is almost 10 points higher than New Orleans, with an 111-point better differential, and the road team looks even more tempting.
Bottom line: Bet the 49ers here at plus-3 and on the money line. The Saints have won three in a row and clinched their division, while the 49ers are still fighting for theirs. Everyone knows the Saints homefield advantage over the years. Drew Brees has been incredible, but we think the wrong team is the favorite in this spot.
What is the line telling you: The last time these two teams played was a high-scoring shootout as Seattle squeaked out a 30-29 win at home in a game that could've gone either way. The turnovers were the difference the first time around, when the Rams had 133 more passing yards and 50 more total yards.
This time around, if you read between the lines, they opened this number a little too high with the Seahawks laying 2.5 on the road in a divisional game vs. a team fighting for their playoff lives.
When we look at both team, even though Seattle has three more wins on the year, the teams point differential is almost identical. The Rams still have a top-5 defense that ranks 11 spots higher than the Seahawks, who rank 4th overall in opponent-yards-per-play and have given up almost a half-yard less per play over recent weeks.
Bottom line: Even though LA only has 7 wins on the year, they've actually outperformed the market in 8 of 12 games this season. The sharp money says bet the Rams plus-1.
(Betting lines are subject to change.)
The Philly Godfather can be followed on twitter @Phillygodfather & his website is www.thephillygodfather.com.
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