November 28, 2024

Week 13 NFL picks: Thanksgiving and Black Friday edition

Who will win during the NFL's November holiday slate?

By The Oregonian
Associated Press

Kevin Jairaj/Imagn Images

Ayyyy, I'm throwin' footballs over here on Thanksgiving, ohhhh! 🤌

For the gambling degenerates, here are my Thanksgiving Day and Black Friday NFL picks. To note, the team logos indicate who I think will win the game, not cover the spread. At the end of the picks, I'll note a few teams that I like based on the spread.

Bears at Lions (-9.5): The Bears have lost five straight and any playoffs hopes they had early this season are now long gone. However, they played close games each of the last two weeks against the Packers, a game they would have won if not for a blocked field goal at the end of regulation, and against the Vikings, who they took to overtime.

The Lions look like the best team in the NFL at the moment, but I think 9.5 points is a little too rich.

Giants at Cowboys (-3.5): Cooper Rush! Tommy DeVito! Thanksgiving Day football, baby! I honestly just can't wait to watch this game for the LOLs.

The Cowboys remain the only team in professional sports to not yet have a home win in the year 2024, but I'm not about to pick the Giants over anyone.

Dolphins at Packers (-3): The Dolphins currently have a three-game winning streak and are playing a little bit more like people expected before the season began. BUT... The temperature is forecasted to be in the 20s at kickoff.

The Dolphins like to pretend the cold doesn't bother them:

Mike McDaniel is going to make sure his squad is prepared to take on the Packers and the cold Green Bay weather 😅 pic.twitter.com/tmsdzLGi6G
— The Sporting News (@sportingnews) November 25, 2024

But the reality is that Tua Tagovailoa is from Hawaii, he played collegiately at Alabama, Miami in the pros, and has a bad track record in the rare cold games he has played in. I'll lay the 3 points.

Raiders at Chiefs (-13): I'm picking the Chiefs to win this game, obviously, but they haven't beaten anyone by more then 13 points all season. Despite their 10-1 record, they aren't even in the top 10 in the NFL in point differential, at +52.

Of course, the Raiders have lost seven straight, and five of those games were by two or more scores. Ima just stay away from this one.

• Picks against the spread: Packers (-3).

• 2024 season, straight up: 125-54 (0.698)
• 2024 season, ATS: 42-32-2 (0.566)
• 2023 season, straight up: 178-109 (0.620)

• 2023 season, ATS: 50-48-6 (0.510)
• 2022 season, straight up: 176-107-2 (0.621)
• 2022 season, ATS: 50-50 (0.500)
• 2021 season, straight up: 179-105-1 (0.630)
• 2021 season, ATS: 46-40-1 (0.534)
• 2020 season, straight up: 169-81-1 (0.675)

• 2020 season, ATS: 45-37-3 (0.547)

• 2019 season, straight up: 160-107-1 (0.601)

• 2019 season, ATS: 42-35-3 (0.544)

• 2018 season, straight up: 173-94-2 (0.647)

• 2018 season, ATS: 41-36-2 (0.532)

• 2017 season, straight up: 181-86 (0.678)

• 2017 season, ATS: 36-32-2 (0.529)

• 2016 season, straight up: 171-94-2 (0.644)

• 2016 season, ATS: 41-34 (0.547)

• 2015 season, straight up: 163-93 (0.637)

• 2015 season, ATS: 46-30-2 (0.605)

• Last 10 seasons, ATS: 432-368-21 (0.539)