November 30, 2023
Bill Streicher/USA TODAY Sports
The Eagles and 49ers are both great teams, but the Eagles' offensive line is far better.
For the gambling degenerates, here are my Week 13 NFL picks. To note, the team logos indicate who I think will win the game, not cover the spread. At the end of the picks, I'll note a few teams that I like based on the spread.
Seahawks at Cowboys (-8.5): The Seahawks have lost three of their last four by a combined score of 111-61. Meanwhile, in their last three games since losing to the Eagles, the Cowboys have pummeled a trio of bottom five teams in the Giants, Commanders, and Panthers by a combined score of 127-37.
I don't normally like laying a lot of points, but since the Cowboys like to run up the score like they're trying to impress a bowl committee or something I'll make an exception.
More importantly, come hang out and watch this game with me. Beers and food. 🍻🍗
Cardinals at Steelers (-5.5): The Steelers' schedule the rest of the way:
• Week 13: Cardinals
• Week 14: Patriots
• Week 15: At Colts
• Week 16: The Joe Burrow-less Bengals
• Week 17: At Seahawks
• Week 18: At Ravens
They have a chance to become the worst 11-win team ever.
Falcons (-3) at Jets: PSA: Aaron Rodgers isn't playing this season, and anything you hear from him about the topic is a pathetic attention grab. If I'm wrong and he does play, then the Jets are the dumbest franchise in sports.
Broncos at Texans (-3.5): I really like C.J. Stroud and this Texans team, but it's hard to ignore Denver's five-game winning streak over a group of teams with a combined record of 32-25 and a combined point differential of +234.
Lions (-4) at Saints: The Lions scare me after a recent string of awful pass defense performances during which they have gotten lit up by a variety of quarterbacks (some good, some "eh"), but I'm not sure that Derek Carr and the Saints have it in them to take advantage.
Colts (-1) at Titans: Shane Steichen has done an awesome job in his first season in Indy, navigating a bad roster and the loss of his starting quarterback and still having a winning record into December. If they somehow make the playoffs he should be the NFL Coach of the Year.
Chargers (-5.5) at Patriots: The Patriots still have a puncher's chance at the No. 1 overall pick.
Dolphins (-9.5) at Commanders: The Giants scored 31 points on the Commanders a couple weeks ago, and then the Cowboys embarrassed them on national television on Thanksgiving. I don't exactly like their chances against this Miami offense.
Panthers at Buccaneers (-5.5): If the Bucs lose this game, we'll be eulogizing them in the hierarchy.
Browns at Rams (-3.5): Speaking of the hierarchy, we killed the Rams off when they were 3-6. They're now 5-6, with a chance to get to 0.500 against... maybe Joe Flacco (!). It'll either be Flacco or Dorian Thompson-Robinson. The Browns' defense can only cover up for their offense so much.
49ers (-3) at Eagles: The 49ers and Eagles both have dangerous rushing attacks, but they have success on the ground in different ways. The Niners rely extremely heavily on Christian McCaffrey, who is on pace for a whopping 372 touches this season. The Eagles do it more by committee, with their quarterback chipping in, and, of course, they're unstoppable on 3rd/4th and 1.
Both teams are also very good at stopping the run. The Niners rank 2nd in run defense; the Eagles rank 3rd. Both of these teams reliably outgain their opponents on the ground. The Niners have outgained their opponents by 594 rushing yards so far this season; the Eagles have outgained theirs by 528. Whoever can be more physical in the trenches and win the ground game will be in a good position to win this game. #Analysis.
It's the passing game matchups that are a little more fun to parse.
Both teams have outstanding skill position players. The 49ers have Deebo Samuel, Brandon Aiyuk, George Kittle, and McCaffrey, all of whom gobble up yards after the catch. The Eagles have a pair of elite outside receivers in A.J. Brown and DeVonta Smith. To be determined if Dallas Goedert will be available.
Both teams also have elite pass rushing units. The Niners have Nick Bosa, Chase Young, Javon Hargrave, and Arik Armstead. The Eagles have Haason Reddick, Josh Sweat, Jalen Carter, and Brandon Graham. We'll see if Fletcher Cox will be available.
But in my view, there is a wide gap between these two teams in offensive line talent. The Eagles have arguably the best offensive line in the NFL, while the Niners have one star player (Trent Williams) and a collection of below average starters otherwise.
The Eagles are 10-1, they've beaten three straight quality opponents, and they have proven that they can win games in a wide variety of ways. Somehow, they are 3-point underdogs, at home, where Jalen Hurts has a 10-game winning streak. Give me the Birds.
Chiefs (-6) at Packers: Jordan Love is beginning to show signs of promise and the Packers are feisty of late, but beating the Chiefs is too big an ask.
Bengals at Jaguars (-8.5): This is a matchup between my cat Butters' two favorite teams. His favorites, ranked:
Butters was unavailable for comment.
• Last 9 years, ATS: 373-321-18 (0.537)
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