November 21, 2024
For the gambling degenerates, here are my Week 12 NFL picks. To note, the team logos indicate who I think will win the game, not cover the spread. At the end of the picks, I'll note a few teams that I like based on the spread.
Steelers (-3.5) at Browns: I'm having my best season picking games in years, and it's because of two reasons:
One of my go-to sites is Inpredictable, which shows how betting markets value each team. The betting markets have the Steelers WAY undervalued at 14th, and the Jets absurdly overvalued at 15th (and even higher than that for most of the season).
What are people not seeing about this Steelers team? They're good! I suppose the Steelers could have a letdown after an emotional win over the Ravens on Sunday, but I'll gladly lay just 3.5 points against the trash Browns.
Lions (-7.5) at Colts: The Lions are a juggernaut right now. I won't be picking against them anytime soon.
Chiefs (-10.5) at Panthers: The Panthers actually have a two-game winning streak and are coming off of their bye, but, you know, they're not winning this one.
Vikings (-3.5) at Bears: The Vikings are a much better team than the Bears and this line is enticing, but they're also playing their third consecutive road game, which is a legitimate factor.
Buccaneers (-5.5) at Giants: The Giants announced that they have thrown in the towel on the season after benching Daniel Jones for Tommy DeVito. Will a quarterback change spark the offense? Or will Giants players recognize that it's tanking season and feel less motivated to play as hard as they might otherwise. Put me down for the latter. Also, the Bucs may be getting Mike Evans back for this game.
Patriots at Dolphins (-7): The Patriots are scrappy and I like Drake Maye, but the Dolphins simply have more talent and they've been playing better of late, easily beating the Rams and Raiders the last two weeks. I still think the Dolphins are frauds, but they should extend their winning streak to three games.
Titans at Texans (-8.5): The Titans are obviously a very bad football team, but are we sure the Texans are good? C.J. Stroud has had a disappointing 2024 after putting together one of the most impressive rookie seasons ever a year ago. Also, the interior of the Texans' line sucks, while the interior of the Titans' line is their biggest strength.
Getting 8.5 points with the Titans here looks like a good value, but I hate trusting bad teams and the Titans are 1-9 ATS. I'm staying away.
Broncos (-6) at Raiders: The Broncos beat the bad teams on their schedule and lose to the good ones. The Raiders are a bad team, so, you know, give me the Broncos.
Cardinals at Seahawks (-1): As a reminder, the Cardinals are my official "Fraudometer™️" team of the 2024 season. What's the Fraudometer™️? Well, if you can beat the Fraudometer™️ team, you might not be frauds. If you can't, you are.
In Week 8, they beat the Dolphins. Frauds.
In Week 9, they beat the Bears easily. Frauds.
In Week 10, they beat the Jets. Frauds.
Put me down for the Seahawks being frauds, too.
49ers at Packers (-2): The 49ers are very clearly no longer the "Big Bad" in the NFC. That's now the Lions. They are getting older, and Kyle Shanahan's scheme is becoming stale. But you know who else isn't really performng to preseason expectations either? The Packers. In their last three games they barely squeaked by the Jaguars, they lost handily to the Lions, and they only beat the Bears because of a blocked field goal at the end of regulation. Give me the Niners to win this game, and I'll also take the 2 points.
Eagles (-2.5) at Rams: Most years, Eagles fans might look at this matchup and think, "Cooper Kupp, Puka Nacua, Matthew Stafford... Uh oh! 😬." But not in 2024, as the Eagles' cornerback trio of Darius Slay, Quinyon Mitchell, and Cooper DeJean have been excellent. Similarly, the Rams' strength on the defensive side of the ball is on the edges, with rookie Jared Verse (4.5 sacks) and Byron Young (6 sacks). Meh. Jordan Mailata and Lane Johnson will take care of those guys.
The matchup that I think could be lopsided is A.J. Brown and DeVonta Smith vs. the Rams' small corners, Darious Williams (5'9, 187), and Cobie Durant (5'11, 180). There could be opportunities for Jalen Hurts to air the ball out down the field, letting Brown and Smith win against those guys down the sideline.
The Rams are a formidable opponent, and probably better than anyone the Eagles have faced during their six-game winning streak, but the Eagles are simply rolling right now, and I think that will carry over into L.A., where the Eagles typically have a home field advantage with traveling fans.
Ravens (-3) at Chargers: If the season ended before Week 12 (it doesn't), the Chargers would be the 5 seed in the AFC and the Ravens would be the 6 seed. The Chargers have quietly put together a four-game winning streak, albeit against bad teams.
Meanwhile, the Ravens' defense has looked really shaky at times this season, and Justin Herbert has turned it on the last five games. I'll take the Ravens to win, but I'm taking the Chargers and the 3 points.
Bye week: Falcons, Saints, Bills, Bengals, Jets, Jaguars.
• Last 10 seasons, ATS: 430-364-21 (0.540)
MORE: Eagles power ranking roundup
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