Week 12 NFL picks

For the gambling degenerates, here are my Week 12 NFL picks. To note, the team logos indicate who I think will win the game, not cover the spread. At the end of the picks, I'll note a few teams that I like based on the spread.

Packers at Lions (-8.5): The Lions have lost six straight years on Thanksgiving.

1. 2017: Vikings 30, Lions 23
2. 2018: Bears 23, Lions 16
3. 2019: Bears 24, Lions 20
4. 2020: Texans 41, Lions 25
5. 2021: Bears 16, Lions 14
6. 2022: Bills 28, Lions 25

This was always the game that you could just kind of ignore and catch up with Aunt Pat and Uncle Rick while throwing back a few beers and some cocktail weenies. This year, not so much, as the Lions are 8-2 and nipping at the heels of the Eagles for the 1 seed in the NFC. It's a must-watch game.

The Lions have had a couple of close calls the last two weeks against bad teams in the Chargers and Bears, and the Packers are playing better of late, so I don't think it'll be walkover for Detroit, but they should end their six-game Thanksgiving skid. 

Commanders at Cowboys (-12.5): Here's your yearly reminder that the Cowboys get a home Thursday game every year, but they never have to play on the road on Thursday on short rest. Like, even the Lions, who also play at home on Thanksgiving every year, had to play a road Thursday game on short rest Week 4 in Green Bay this season. But the Cowboys... nope. 

The Cowboys play on Thursday night again next week, on a normal 7-day schedule... and at home again, lol. And then they get a home game the following week as well on extra rest against their best competition for the division (the Eagles).

Back in 2019, the Eagles proposed that the Cowboys and Lions should still be allowed to play on Thanksgiving every year, but that every other year they should have to play on the road, a perfectly reasonable and fair solution. They eventually withdrew the proposal. Why?

"All we heard was that the competition committee said there wasn’t enough support," Lurie said.

How are the other owners in the NFL fine with a team getting a clear competitive advantage every season? Get some balls and stand up to Jerry Jones, you cowards.

49ers (-7) at Seahawks: The Seahawks absolutely had to beat Rams last week, and they choked. Now they have the following schedule ahead:

• 49ers (7-3)
• At Cowboys (7-3)
• At 49ers (7-3)
• Eagles (9-1)

Combined record / point differential of those four opponents (counting the 49ers twice): 30-10 (0.750), +432. Yikes.

A few weeks ago the Seahawks were 5-2 with sole possession of first place in the NFC West. They might soon be 6-8.

Dolphins (-9.5) at Jets: This is the "Black Friday" game, and I like that the NFL is televising it at 3:00 p.m. EST, as opposed to, sayyyy, 8:15 p.m.? It's just too bad that the Jets are unwatchable. Good concept, bad matchup. It'll be nice background noise/viewing while I get other stuff done around my house.

Patriots (-3.5) at Giants: The draft order, as of Thanksgiving (teams that are 4-7 or worse):

1. Bears (via Panthers): 1-9
2. Cardinals: 2-9
3. Patriots: 2-8
4. Bears: 3-8
5. Giants: 3-8
6. Titans: 3-7
7. Commanders: 4-7

Panthers at Titans (-3.5): More draft order intrigue. The only people who care about this game are Bears fans.

Saints at Falcons (-1): Whoever wins the NFC South is going to get blown out by the Cowboys in the wildcard round of the playoffs. Saints-Falcons is a huge matchup that will help decide who will earn that right.

Both of these teams are bad, but the Falcons are worse. Give me the Saints, and sure, I'll take the point.

Buccaneers at Colts (-2.5): The Bucs have the difficult task of playing on the road in San Francisco, heading all the way back to Tampa, and then playing another road game the following week.

Jaguars (-1.5) at Texans: The Texans have actually won 10 of the last 11 in this series going back to 2018, including a 37-17 stomping this season in Jacksonville. I'll ride that trend until it changes.

Steelers (-1) at Bengals: As you're aware, Joe Burrow is done for the season. I had to Google his backup. It's Jake Browning. 😬

Browning was a 2019 undrafted free agent out of Washington who spent his first three years in the NFL on the Vikings' practice squad and who attempted the first passes of his career this season. Having a roster as good as the Bengals' and heading into a season with a 27-year-old backup quarterback with zero career pass attempts feels like malpractice to me, but whatever. 

I do not like this Steelers offense even a little bit (I mean, who would?), but I suppose I like their chances of winning a sloppy game with their defense, as they have often done this season.

Browns at Broncos (-1.5): After an abysmal start to the season, the Broncos have won four straight, and two of those games have come against the Chiefs and Bills. Sean Payton may be annoying, but he's a good coach.

Rams (-1) at Cardinals: If you give me a line where all a team has to do is beat the Cardinals and I either win or get an unlucky push, I'm probably going to take it.

Bills at Eagles (-3): The Bills will be without their best cornerback (All-Pro Tre'Davious White), their best linebacker (All-Pro Matt Milano), and a starting DT (DaQuon Jones). Meanwhile, their CB2 (Taron Johnson), their backup CB to White (Dane Jackson), and two of their top three safeties (Micah Hyde and Taylor Rapp) are all banged up, and it's a good bet that some combination of them won't play. That's a lot to overcome against an explosive Eagles offense whose wide receivers consistently make plays down the field.

There are other additional matchups I like in the Eagles' favor:

1. The Eagles should be able to run the ball against this depleted Bills defense.
2. The interior of the Eagles' defensive line is a bad matchup for the Bills' guards.
3. The Eagles' battle-tested offensive line should be able to hold up against a starless-but-effective Bills pass rush.

The matchup in the Bills favor that on paper should give the Eagles some anxiety is Stefon Diggs working out of the slot. Then again, the Eagles have faced star pass catchers all season long, notably Justin Jefferson, Mike Evans, Terry McLaurin, Cooper Kupp, Garrett Wilson, CeeDee Lamb, and Travis Kelce. Ho hum.

Chiefs (-8.5) at Raiders: The Chiefs have won their last 9 games coming off losses, dating back to 2021.

Ravens (-3.5) at Chargers: The Ravens have scored at least 31 points in each of their last five games, and now they get to play Brandon Staley's fraud defense.

Bears at Vikings (-3): The undervalued Vikings are the only team that consistently covers for me, so I'll just keep riding that, I guess.