November 24, 2015
For the gambling degenerates, here are my Week 12 picks. To note, the helmets indicate who I think will win the game, not cover the spread. At the end of the picks, I'll note a few teams that I like based on the spread.
Eagles (-1) at Lions: I don't know exactly how the Eagles can be favored over anyone right now, but they can't throw, catch, block, tackle or cover. Or coach. Other than that, they're a perfectly average team.
Panthers (-1) at Cowboys: The Panthers aren't just 10-0. They've won 14 straight regular season games dating back to 2014. However, because everything is going so horribly wrong in all of Philly sports, it just feels like the Eagles will lose on Thanksgiving, followed by a little Cowboys win to make you extra nauseous for dessert.
Bears at Packers (-9): After a three-game slide, the Packers finally got back on track in a huge win on the road over the Vikings. They'll keep the momentum going here against the Bears, who Aaron Rodgers absolutely owns. In his last four games against Chicago, Rodgers and the Packers have put up 157 points (39.3 per game).
Raiders (1.5) at Titans: Bleh. I've picked both of these teams several times this season, and they both always burn me. Raiders, I guess.
Bills at Chiefs (-5): Big Red is on fire. The Chiefs' last four games:
• Steelers: 23-13
• Lions: 45-10
• At Broncos: 29-13
• At Chargers: 33-3.
Combined score: 130-39. I'm riding the hot hand.
Buccaneers at Colts (-3): Are the Buccaneers actually good? They certainly played great last Sunday. Credit where it's due -- it's not like the Eagles lost just because they're terrible. The Bucs certainly did their part putting in on them. However, I'm often slow to trust what I see, so I'll stubbornly take the Colts at home here.
Giants (-2.5) at Redskins: The Redskins have been outscored 162-86 on the road this season, but are 4-0 in their last four home games. Then again, Kirk Cousins is the most turnover-prone quarterback in the NFL, and the Giants are tied for first in the NFL with a turnover differential of +13. I'm hitching my wagon to Cousins. Yes, I just wrote that.
Saints at Texans (-3): After being absolutely punked by the Dolphins a few weeks ago, the Texans have rattled off three straight wins in which they have allowed an average of 245 yards per game, or roughly four Doug Martin carries against the Eagles.
Vikings at Falcons (-2.5): The Falcons have revealed themselves to be frauds, and are very much in the same "How is this team favored?!?" category as the Eagles.
Rams at Bengals (-9): The Rams benched Nick Foles for Case Keenum last week, and that didn't go so well. It will continue to not go so well in Cincinnati this weekend.
Chargers at Jaguars (-3.5): The Chargers have turned into a complete dumpster fire, and are in the running for the No. 1 overall pick in the 2016 NFL Draft. The Jags, meanwhile, have their first two-game win streak in the history of their franchise. Probably.
Dolphins at Jets (-3.5): The Dolphins are one of the worst teams in the NFL, as they reminded us when they lost to a bad Cowboys team a week ago by 10. (Yes, I realize Tony Romo was back). The Jets haven't exactly been good of late either, but they're good enough to stop this sorry offense.
Cardinals (-10.5) at 49ers: The 49ers might be the worst team in the NFL. The Cardinals might be the best. I almost never like 10+ point favorites, but I like the Cards here.
Steelers at Seahawks (-4): It feels like the Seahawks are beginning to come into form, which is something I think I've said two other times this season. But this time for real though.
Patri*ts (-3) at Broncos: While the Patri*ts won't be able to turn Brock Osweiler's helmet radio to the Spanish station on key 3rd and long situations since they're not at home, I'm sure Darth Hoodie has some other illegal way of messing with inexperienced quarterbacks on the road.
Ravens at Browns (-2.5): Good God this is an awful Monday night game. The Ravens will be without Joe Flacco, Justin Forsett, and Steve Smith, but screw it... They're still probably better than the Browns.
Picks against the spread: Lions (+1), Redskins (+2.5), Texans (-3), Vikings (+2.5), Cardinals (-10.5).
Last week, straight up: 12-2
Season, straight up: 98-62
Last week, ATS: 5-0
Season, ATS: 31-23-2
Follow Jimmy on Twitter: @JimmyKempski
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