For the gambling degenerates, here are my Week 11 picks. To note, the helmets indicate who I think will win the game, not cover the spread. At the end of the picks, I'll note a few teams that I like based on the spread.
Titans at Jaguars (-3): Let's lead off this week's picks with the best game of the week... The Tennessee Titans at the Jacksonville Jaguars! Or as I like to call it, the "Ruin Your Draft Position Bowl." In this game, I think Marcus Mariota is already better than Blake Bortles, so let's ride with the Titans, but I'd be a liar if I said I know squat about the rest of the players on these teams.
Raiders (-2) at Lions: Ugh, from a picking standpoint, I hate this game. You have a Raiders team that is sometimes good, sometimes awful, and then a Lions team that has been trash all year that went into Green Bay and beat the Packers. I'll take the Lions, I guess, because that's the way the Eagles' season is going -- The Eagles have the Lions' third round pick, so I fully expect Detroit to go on winning streak to close the season and ruin their draft position.
Colts at Falcons (-5.5): This is curious line at 5.5. The Colts are a mess, and may be without Andrew Luck, so I get why the line is skewed toward the Falcons. However, what exactly can anyone like about the Falcons lately? In their last four games, they lost to the Saints, Bucs, and Blaine Gabbert-led 49ers. Their only win was a three point squeaker over the Titans. Frauds. I'm taking the Colts to win, outright.
Jets (-2.5) at Texans: The Texans allowed 41 points to the Dolphins in the first half a few weeks ago, and looked their their season was going to go full on dumpster fire. However, they bounced back, winning two games in which they allowed six points per game. The Jets, meanwhile, started 4-1, but have come back to Earth lately. These are two teams going in opposite directions.
Buccaneers at Eagles (-6): The Eagles have been a mess lately, but I do like their matchup this week against the Buccaneers. On the season, the Eagles average the second most takeaways per game in the NFL. Meanwhile, only seven teams have turned the ball over more than the Buccaneers. The Eagles can take advantage of the Bucs' suspect offensive line, get after Jameis Winston and force him into bad throws.
Broncos at Bears (-1.5): Wait. The Bears are favored in this game? Oh, I see why. The Bears pummeled the Rams last week, and the Broncos looked like trash against the Chiefs. Short-term memory bias. I mean, I get that Peyton Manning isn't good anymore, but the Broncos' defense alone should be able to handle this crappy Bears team.
Rams at Ravens (-2.5): The long awaited Case Keenum era begins for the Rams in this "Who gives a crap" game in Baltimore. The Ravens are 2-7, and obviously among the bigger disappointments this season, but they're "only" -26 in point differential, whereas teams with similar records are significantly worse. Take the Ravens, I guess.
Cowboys (-1) at Dolphins: Every week lately I've been picking the Cowboys, and every week they lose. Trolling Cowboys fans after losses is fun, so let's keep this up. Last week, obviously, the Eagles lost to the Dolphins in one of the worst games I've ever seen them play. Miami is one of the worst teams in the NFL. Tony Romo returns this week to help try to help Dallas ruin their draft position.
Redskins at Panthers (-7.5): Redskins fans are feeling themselves after the Skins administered a 47-14 beatdown of the lowly Saints. However, whenever the Redskins have played anyone with at least five wins, they have lost by an average of 12 points. People keep waiting for the Panthers to trip up, but I don't see that happening this week.
Chiefs (-3) at Chargers: Hey, look at Big Red! After starting 1-5, the Chiefs have crawled back, winning their last three games, and looking very impressive doing so. They are now right back in the hunt for the wildcard. The Chargers, meanwhile, are junk. They've lost five straight games, including losses to Chicago and Baltimore.
Packers at Vikings (-1): This is such an interesting game. As we asked last night
in the Hierarchy/Obituary, has anyone watched a Vikings game from start to finish? Minny has a chance to put two games of separation between themselves and the banged up Packers. They are actually favored in this game, which comes as a mild surprise, even with the Packers losing to the Lions a week ago. The Vikes have won five straight, but... Aaron Rodgers.
49ers at Seahawks (-13): Blaine Gabbert beat the Falcons in his first start with the 49ers, and that was fun. But now he'll face a great defense in the Seattle Seahawks, and I suspect he'll have a rough afternoon. In the last three Seahawks-49ers matchups, the Niners have scored a grand total of 13 points. Hang on, doing math... That's 4.3 points per game.
Bengals at Cardinals (-5): There are some who believe the Cardinals are the second best team in the NFL behind the Patri*ts, including Vegas apparently, who have this line at five over a really good 8-1 Bengals team. The Bengals are of course Carson Palmer's old team, which means nothing, really. After a bad performance against the Texans last week that ended with him getting absurdly upset over unfunny J.J. Watt comments, Andy Dalton will have to show he can bounce back from adversity. Cardinals, please.
Bills at Patri*ts (-7): The Bills came into Week 2 feeling themselves after what was (at the time) an impressive Week 1 win over the Colts. They even put together a game-opening scoring drive, and Buffalo was hyped. And then the Patri*ts put it on them. The Bills are 5-2 when Tyrod Taylor is at the helm, but come on... Buffalo hasn't beaten the Patri*ts since 2011, and they haven't come within seven points in the last four matchups. How is this line only seven?
Byes: Browns, Saints, Giants, Steelers.
Picks against the spread: Lions (+2), Colts (+5.5), Cowboys (-1), Texans (+2.5), Packers (+1).
Last week, straight up: 4-10 (Good God.)
Season, straight up: 86-60
Last week, ATS: 2-1
Season, ATS: 26-23-2
Follow Jimmy on Twitter: @JimmyKempski
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