November 09, 2023
Stephen R. Sylvanie/USA TODAY Sports
"Ayyyy, I'm tryin' to throw passes ova heeeeere," says Giants QB Tommy DeVito, as he warms up pregame.
For the gambling degenerates, here are my Week 10 NFL picks. To note, the team logos indicate who I think will win the game, not cover the spread. At the end of the picks, I'll note a few teams that I like based on the spread.
Panthers at Bears (-3.5): Ew. I guess I'm skipping Thursday Night Football this week. This game is only interesting to other teams near the top of the draft order, like the Cardinals, Giants, and Patriots.
Colts (-1.5) at Patriots: If you're an NFL fan in Germany, hopefully you got tickets to Dolphins-Chiefs last week, and not this game.
Browns at Ravens (-6): The Browns got spanked 28-3 in this matchup earlier this season, though they had to start rookie Dorian Thompson-Robinson. They'll have Deshaun Watson for this game, which still isn't enough.
Saints (-2.5) at Vikings: The Vikings are the better team in this matchup, in my opinion. I'll gladly take the 2.5 points at home.
Texans at Bengals (-6.5): This is a sneaky-fun matchup between a legitimate Super Bowl contender in the Bengals against the exciting C.J. Stroud-led Texans. The Bengals have won four straight, with quality wins against the Seahawks, 49ers, and Bills. They're rolling.
49ers (-3) at Jaguars: Inpredictable.com is a nice tool for getting a look at how betting markets view teams. They use "Generic Points Favored," or "what you you expect the team to be favored by against a league average opponent on a neutral field." The 49ers come in at No. 1 in that metric, meaning that the betting markets think they're the best team in the NFL.
| Team | GPF | Team | GPF |
| 49ers | 6.5 | Texans | -2.1 |
| Ravens | 6.1 | Colts | -2.1 |
| Chiefs | 6.1 | Falcons | -2.2 |
| Eagles | 5.2 | Packers | -2.2 |
| Cowboys | 4.6 | Buccaneers | -2.3 |
| Bengals | 4.3 | Broncos | -2.4 |
| Dolphins | 3.8 | Jets | -2.7 |
| Bills | 3.4 | Rams | -3.0 |
| Lions | 3.2 | Commanders | -3.0 |
| Jaguars | 2.0 | Patriots | -3.3 |
| Browns | 1.9 | Vikings | -3.3 |
| Chargers | 1.2 | Bears | -4.2 |
| Seahawks | 1.0 | Raiders | -4.6 |
| Saints | 0.9 | Cardinals | -5.8 |
| Steelers | -1.0 | Panthers | -6.3 |
| Titans | -1.9 | Giants | -8.7 |
Obviously, that is absurd, since the 49ers have lost three straight games while failing to score more than 17 points in all three games. So, if you think the betting markets are undervaluing/overvaluing teams, you can, you know, bet on/against them.
Undervalued, in my opinion: Eagles, Jets, Vikings.
Overvalued, in my opinion: 49ers, Saints, Falcons.
Packers at Steelers (-3): The Steelers have been outgained in every game so far this season, and yet they find ways to win games. Ultimately, I trust the Steelers' pass rush to pressure Jordan Love into making big mistakes.
Titans at Buccaneers (-1): I don't trust this Titans team even a little bit, but the Bucs have lost four straight after starting 3-1, and look like they may be in a free fall. Give me the Titans with no confidence whatsoever.
Lions (-3) at Chargers: When the Chargers play bad teams, they'll typically win. When they play good teams, they get destroyed in the short-to-intermediate areas of the field because they don't want to give up big plays. The Lions are a good team, so expect Brandon Staley's fraud defense to get exposed, like they did earlier this season against quarterbacks like Patrick Mahomes and Tua Tagovailoa.
Falcons (-1.5) at Cardinals: Kyler Murray will return to the starting lineup for the Cardinals, which in my mind means very little as he may not even be a top half of the league quarterback. This Cardinals team will remain dreadful, with or without Murray. I'd love to jump all over an opportunity to pick against them when the line is slanted toward them more than it otherwise would be, but unfortunately their opponent this week is the Falcons, a overrated team that has nothing going for it. I'll take the Falcons to win, I guess, because the Cardinals are so brutally bad, and just wait to pick against the winner of this game next week.
Commanders at Seahawks (-6): On the surface Seahawks (-6) looks like a decent enough bargain. However, they didn't just get waxed on the scoreboard in Baltimore last Sunday. They also got pretty banged up in that game.
Seahawks injury report. Lots of starters limited and out today. pic.twitter.com/4wjPLVNfyG
— Dugar, Michael-Shawn (@MikeDugar) November 9, 2023
I'd just stay away.
Giants at Cowboys (-16.5): The Cowboys will choke some random games, but with the Giants starting Tommy DeVito, there's just no realistic path to a Giants win here.
Jets (-Pk) at Raiders: The Raiders got their new coach bump last week, and they destroyed the hapless Giants. Now that that's out of the way, they can get back to losing.
Broncos at Bills (-7.5): The Bills are better than their 5-4 record would indicate, and they're 4-1 with a +67 point differential at home.
BYE: Eagles, Rams, Chiefs, Dolphins.
• Last 9 years, ATS: 368-312-16 (0.540)
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