Week 10 NFL picks

For the gambling enthusiasts, here are my Week 10 NFL picks. To note, the team logos indicate who I think will win the game, not cover the spread. At the end of the picks, I'll note a few teams that I like based on the spread.

Falcons (-2.5) at Panthers: These two teams played a couple weeks ago, and the Panthers had like a half dozen different opportunities to bury the Falcons, but they simply refused, and the Falcons ended up winning in OT. The Falcons have been better this season than anticipated, but they worked their way back onto my "Do not trust" list after they "Falcons" away a game against the Chargers last Sunday. Here's my NFL "Do not trust" list, by the way, in terms of having no idea what you're going to get out of them from week to week:

1. Falcons
2. Chargers
3. 49ers
4. Raiders
5. Bengals
6. Bears

Seahawks at Buccaneers (-3) (in Munich): The Seahawks have very clearly been a better football team than the Buccaneers this season, And Geno Smith has been the second-best quarterback in the NFC, behind only Jalen Hurts. I'm guessing they're underdogs at a neutral European site because Tom Brady is a recognizable figure internationally, and Geno isn't? But if you're picking games based on what we have seen from teams this season, Seattle (+3) is a steal.

Vikings at Bills (-6): The 2021 Bills lost six games. Here's what they did the week after a loss:

• MORE ON THE EAGLES
• What they're saying about the Eagles: The best show going
  
• Commanders at Eagles: Five matchups to watch
  
• Eagles-Commanders: A look at the odds
  

• Week 2: They beat the Dolphins, 35-0.
• Week 8: They beat the Dolphins, 26-11.
• Week 10: They beat the Jets, 45-17.
• Week 12: They beat the Saints, 31-6.
• Week 14: They lost to the Buccaneers in OT, 33-27.
• Week 15: They beat the Panthers, 31-14

I think there's a silly trope sometimes about good teams being "angry" after a loss and taking it out on their next opponent, as if they otherwise wouldn't have played as hard. That said, the Bills outscored their opponents 195-81 after losses last year (with five blowout wins), and they won a tough game in Baltimore after a loss this year, so I do think there's something to them responding well after bad outcomes.

The Vikings have a chance to quiet some chatter that their 7-1 record is a little fraudulent, but they just can't match Buffalo's talent. Josh Allen's elbow injury is certainly worth monitoring, though, and I wouldn't touch this game until more is known there.

Lions at Bears (-3): It wasn't that long ago this season that the Bears didn't have a functional NFL passing game. However, over the last three games they have averaged 31.3 points per game, and Justin Fields has made some ridiculous plays. 

At a minimum, they're at least fun to watch now. 

Broncos at Titans (-2.5): The Broncos are an untouchable team to bet this year. They have a good defense, so they can stay in games, but if you can stomach watching Russell Wilson and Nathaniel Hackett struggle to find answers for four quarters while they punt all day, God bless. So for me, it's Titans or nothing. I love this line if Ryan Tannehill is the quarterback, but not so much if it's Malik Willis. Tannehill practiced on Wednesday:

He could still progress, but right now that looks like a guy who isn't ready to play. I'd stay away.

Jaguars at Chiefs (-9.5): Doug has had quite a reunion tour this season. Week 1 against Carson, Week 4 against the Eagles, Weeks 2 and 6 against Frank, and now Week 10 against Andy. 

Browns at Dolphins (-3.5): I got a brief, but close look at both of these teams during training camp this year during Eagles joint practices, and the Dolphins are a way better football team.

Texans at Giants (-4.5): The Texans are probably the worst team in the NFL.

Saints (-1.5) at Steelers: The Steelers will be getting T.J. Watt back this week, which is obviously a huge boost. They still can't score, though. They've managed just 120 points this season, worst in the NFL, and their offense hasn't scored more than 20 points in any game this season.

If you're an Eagles fan, the Saints are a nice "emotional hedge" play. If they lose, the Eagles' draft position is helped. If they win, "Yay! Money!" Of course, if they win by 1, it's pain all around.

Colts at Raiders (-6): It's too bad this game isn't in primetime, because I'm fascinated by what the Colts could look like this week after firing Frank Reich and inserting in Jeff Saturday, a guy with literally no coaching experience at the professional or collegiate levels. And hell, the Raiders are a mess in their own right. Eagles fans should be thanking their lucky stars that Jeffrey Lurie hired Nick Sirianni over Josh McDaniels.

Cowboys (-4.5) at Packers: By my count, there are 14 starters (15 if you include the kicker) on the Packers' initial injury report.

The Packers are already bad, and they've been banged up all season long, but not to this degree. The Cowboys should be well rested and ready to go coming off their bye. They're going to smash this team.

Cardinals at Rams (-1): This line dipped a bit after Matthew Stafford entered the concussion protocol. That's too unpredictable for my tastes, and I'm not trusting John Wolford to get it done if Stafford can't go. Conversely, I'm also not about to hitch my wagon to Kyler Murray anytime soon.

Chargers at 49ers (-7): Ah, this is a battle of two teams that are both clearly very talented, but also inconsistent. Prepare for Cris Collnsworth to slobber all over Kyle Shanahan and Brandon Staley during the telecast, despite each teams' inconsistency. 

As noted above, both of these teams made my "Do not trust" list. Chargers (+7) is tempting, though. They're 3-1 on the road this year, with a close loss to the Chiefs. Ah, screw it, I need a reason to watch it. Give me the Niners to win, but the Chargers to cover. That's a big line.

Commanders at Eagles (-11): In the Eagles' first matchup against the Commanders Week 3, the Birds dominated in the trenches, particularly on the defensive side of the ball, sacking Carson Wentz nine times. Wentz will avoid having to hear boos from his former admirers at Lincoln Financial Field on Monday night, since he is on injured reserve with a broken finger. Instead, Taylor Heinicke will start for the Commanders.

Heinicke does not possess a single above average tangible trait for a starting NFL quarterback, in my opinion, though he does seem to have sparked the Commanders' offense a bit with his feisty style of play. Feistiness isn't going to beat an Eagles defense that has been excellent at getting after opposing quarterbacks and forcing a league-leading 18 turnovers.

In Heinicke's three starts, the Commanders managed to put 23, 17, and 17 points on the board. Some of those points came when Heinicke just chunked the ball up in the air and said a prayer that his guy would come down with it. That's not a sustainable way of playing quarterback in the NFL. 

Meanwhile, the Eagles have scored at least 20 points in six of their eight games, before halftime, and have very clearly been the best team in the NFL so far this season. The Commanders have a few nice pieces, like Jonathan Allen and Daron Payne on the interior of their defensive line, or Terry McLaurin on offense, but their impact players are few and far between, while the Eagles are absolutely loaded. There's no need to overthink it. Eagles, comfortably.

Teams on their bye week: Bengals, Patri*ts, Jets, Ravens.

• Last 8 years, ATS: 326-267-13 (0.549)

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