November 11, 2021
For the gambling enthusiasts, here are my Week 10 NFL picks. To note, the team logos indicate who I think will win the game, not cover the spread. At the end of the picks, I'll note a few teams that I like based on the spread — with all lines coming via Sidelines.io.
Ravens (-7.5) at Dolphins: Eagles fans will have reason to watch this game, since, you know, the Birds own the Dolphins' first-round pick in 2022. The Dolphins broke a seven-game losing streak against the Texans on Sunday, but they only scored 17 points behind a bad Jacoby Brissett performance.
Thursday night, it will be a game-time decision between Brissett and Tua Tagovailoa, who is trying to recover from a broken middle finger on his throwing hand. In other words, the Dolphins will either be rolling with a bad quarterback (Brissett) or a slightly less bad quarterback (Tagovailoa) who may not be able to grip the football all that well.
This line feels curiously low to me. The Ravens can score on anyone, and the Dolphins have nothing. I typically don't like laying more than 7 points, but I'll make an exception this week.
Falcons at Cowboys (-9.5): The surprise result of the Week 9 slate of games was Dallas' blowout loss to the Broncos. The final score (30-16) didn't look horrible, but the Broncos led that game 30-0 late in the fourth quarter.
This is a huge game for the Cowboys. In past seasons, losing streaks have helped torpedo their seasons:
• 2020: They had a four-game losing streak and a pair of two-game losing streaks.
• 2019: They had a pair of three-game losing streaks.
• 2018: Just one two-game losing streak.
• 2017: They had a two-game losing streak and a three-game losing streak.
• 2016: A two-game losing streak ended their season.
• 2015: They had a seven-game losing streak and a four-game losing streak.
They should be able to bounce back against an overmatched Falcons roster. We'll see. I'll take the 9.5 points, though.
Buccaneers (-9.5) at Football Team: Both of these teams are coming off losses, followed by their bye weeks. The Football Team has served as something of a "get right" opponent for a bunch of teams this season. As in, "Need a win because you're struggling? We're here for you!"
With the Bucs having a couple of weeks to think about their loss to the Saints Week 8, expect that trend to continue.
Jaguars at Colts (-10.5): It's funny to me when Jonathan Taylor runs for a million yards and people go, Carson Wentz is back babaaaayyyyy."
Over the last six games, since the Colts' 0-3 start to this season, Taylor has 98 carries for 650 yards and 8 TDs to go along with 15 catches for 223 yards and 1 TD. He's on pace for over 2,100 yards from scrimmage.
Saints at Titans (-2.5): The Titans lost their star running back, which... OK, buuuuut the Saints don't have a quarterback. The Titans have four straight wins over 2020 playoff teams and five straight wins overall, while the Saints just lost at home to the trash Falcons. So why is this line only 2.5 points? What am I missing? I'll roll with the team that's absolutely on fire (in a good way).
Browns at Patri*ts (-2): The Odell Beckham news cycle is crazy to me. Who cares where he lands? He's a baby, he isn't good anymore, and the Browns are better off without him.
In this matchup, the Browns are the more talented team, and the home field mystique at Gillette Stadium over the last two decades probably had more to do with the Patri*ts having the best quarterback ever, plus some occasional cheating. That's all it was. They're 1-4 at home this season.
Bills (-13.5) at Jets: I didn't see any of the Bills' 9-6 field goal fest loss to the Jaguars last Sunday, but I'll assume that was a pretty terrible game? Meh. I trust them to bounce back against the Jets.
Lions at Steelers (-8.5): Ben Roethlisberger is cooked, but the Steelers just keep winning anyway. I don't like Jared Goff's chances against this Pittsburgh defense.
Panthers at Cardinals (-10.5): It looks like Kyler Murray will be back this week, hence the double-digit line here. Sam Darnold is out with an incomplete fracture of his shoulder blade. He can't even complete that.
Doesn't matter. The Panthers stink with or without Darnold.
Vikings at Chargers (-3.5): Justin Herbert was 32 of 38 for 358 yards, 2 TDs, 0 INTs, and a rushing TD against the Eagles last week, and the Chargers still needed a field goal to win the game at the end of regulation.
This Chargers team has holes galore, and Herbert has to be near-perfect for them to win games. The Vikings are better-equipped to exploit those weaknesses than the Eagles were last Sunday.
Ugh, I hate hitching my wagon to Kirk Cousins, who rarely beats teams with winning records, but let's just do this.
Eagles at Broncos (-3): Will the Eagles' defensive line show up? That's the question in this game. As we noted in our five matchups to watch, the Broncos are very banged-up along their offensive line, and the Eagles should win in the trenches defensively. Sometimes they dominate, like they did Week 1 in Atlanta or Week 8 in Detroit. More often, they have disappointed this season, most notably last week when they didn't so much as breathe on Justin Herbert.
Teddy Bridgewater is completing more than 70 percent of his passes this season, and as we are all aware, the Eagles are allowing opposing quarterbacks to complete passes against them at a historic clip. However, Bridgewater also holds onto the ball for a long time, so if the Eagles are going to force some passes to hit the ground on Sunday, they'll have to ensure that Bridgewater hits the ground on occasion, too.
Javon Hargrave got out to an All-Pro-level start this season, but he has cooled off. Josh Sweat has had some nice moments, but they've been few and far between, partially because Jonathan Gannon's defense isn't putting him in enough situations to succeed. Meanwhile, Fletcher Cox, Derek Barnett, and Ryan Kerrigan have been disinterested, dumb, and invisible, respectively.
I'm not ready to bet on this D-line.
Seahawks at Packers (-3.5): I really wanted to take the Seahawks here with the return of Russell Wilson, but this is the exact type of game that Aaron Rodgers crushes because he'll feel in his dopey head like he's being wrongly criticized, and he'll go out play like a motivated Michael Jordan. And then unlike Jordan, he'll eventually lose in the playoffs, but whatever.
Chiefs (-2.5) at Raiders: What the hell is going on with this Chiefs offense? In their last three games, they're averaging 12 points per game. And 13 of their 36 points during that span have come on drives that have been 25 yards or shorter.
And yet, I still can't pick against them.
Rams (-3.5) at 49ers: It's confusing to me why oddsmakers are giving the Niners any kind of respect at all. It's really not complicated — They're just a bad football team, and their coaching staff is wildly overrated. I'll gladly lay 3.5 points.
Byes: Bears, Bengals, Giants, Texans.
Week 1: Rams ✔
Week 2: Buccaneers ✔
Week 3: Broncos ✔
Week 4: Bills ✔
Week 5: Patri*ts ✔
Week 6: Colts ✔
Week 7: Cardinals ✔
Week 8: Bengals 💀
• Last 7 years, ATS: 273-226-13 (0.546)
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