November 09, 2017
For the gambling degenerates, here are my Week 10 NFL picks. To note, the helmets indicate who I think will win the game, not cover the spread. At the end of the picks, I'll note a few teams that I like based on the spread.
Seahawks (-5.5) at Cardinals: The four teams the Cardinals have beaten have a combined record of 5-30. In their other four games, against legitimate teams, they've been outscored 130-47. The Seahawks will be ready to beat up on them after losing a crazy game last week at home against the Redskins.
Saints (-3) at Bills: The Saints have a six-game winning streak, and have doubled up their opponents (combined) on the scoreboard, 182-90. I'm just going to ride the hot hand.
Packers at Bears (-5.5): The Packers' demise after Aaron Rodgers' injury was predictable, but I wouldn't have thought they'd be so bad that they'd be 5.5-point underdogs to the Bears. If Aaron Rodgers were healthy, the Packers would be touchdown favorites in this game. That's how good he is.
Browns at Lions (-12): The Browns are halfway to a winless season. In December, they'll play consecutive games at home against the Packers and Ravens. That'll be their best opportunity to win a game, but it probably isn't happening before then.
Steelers (-10) at Colts: Andrew Luck is now on injured reserve and the Colts may have a top 5 pick in the 2018 NFL Draft. They are the AFC equivalent of the Green Bay Packers, in that they are a team with a crappy roster that has been bailed out by an extremely talented quarterback.
Chargers at Jaguars (-3.5): I like the talent on both of these teams quite a bit. The Jaguars lead the AFC in point differential, at +89, with the next best team, the Chiefs, at +45. Meanwhile, after an 0-4 start, the Chargers have won three of their last four, and have been able to stay in the playoff hunt. Still, the Chargers are disadvantaged by having to travel across the country to play a 1:00 p.m. game in Florida.
Jets (-2.5) at Buccaneers: You've all seen this by now, but, just in case:
Jameis Winston with an ... interesting pump up speech. 🤣 pic.twitter.com/z0tESHAA6k
— FOX Sports: NFL (@NFLonFOX) November 5, 2017
Anyway, Jameis Winston is out, Ryan Fitzpatrick is in. I have no other analysis than that the Buccaneers are terrible. Also, play the above video, and just watch DeSean Jackson in the background.
Bengals at Titans (-5): The Titans have won three in a row, though they haven't been impressive in those wins over garbage opponents in the Colts, Browns, and Ravens. They should pick up another W against the less crappy (but still quite crappy) Bengals.
Vikings (-1) at Redskins: I'm really tempted to take the Redskins here, but the Vikings have given up fewer than 20 points in all but one game this season, and even in that one game they gave up 26 to the Steelers. The Vikings are consistently good on defense, so I just trust them to take care of talented-but-flawed offenses like Washington's.
Texans at Rams (-12): One moment the Texans were looking like a dangerous team that you wouldn't want to face in the playoffs. The next moment, Deshaun Watson tears his ACL and they look like their playoff aspirations are over.
Cowboys at Falcons (-3): The Cowboys are clearly a better football team than the Falcons at this point in the season (even without Zeke, in my view), and the Falcons are favored by three points? How is that?
Giants (-2.5) at 49ers: This may be the 49ers' best chance to win a game this season, but they are smartly staying in full-on tank mode, starting C.J. Beathard over newly acquired Jimmy Garoppolo. The Giants, meanwhile, are a leaderless team at the moment, but should do enough to mess up their draft position in this one.
Patriots (-7.5) at Broncos: It appears that Brock Osweiler will start again for Denver this week, which makes this a pretty easy pick, though it's not as if Trevor Siemian or Paxton Lynch would change my mind either.
Dolphins at Panthers (-9): The Panthers are a solid football team. The Dolphins are a team that just traded away one of their best players because the coach was pissed off.
BYE: Eagles, Chiefs, Raiders, Ravens.
• Picks against the spread: Seahawks (-5.5), Vikings (-1), Cowboys (+3), Giants (-2.5),
• 2017 season, straight up: 85-47 (.644)
• 2017 season, ATS: 20-14 (.588)
• 2016 season, straight up: 171-94-2 (.644)
• 2016 season, ATS: 41-34 (0.547)
• 2015 season, straight up: 163-93 (0.637)
• 2015 season, ATS: 46-30-2 (0.605)
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