Week 1 NFL picks

Packers "at" Eagles (-2): The Packers are young and exciting, but they were also wildly inconsistent in 2023. They beat good teams like the Rams, Lions, and Chiefs during the regular season, and in the playoffs they wrecked the Cowboys and nearly knocked off the 49ers. They also lost to the Falcons, Raiders, Broncos, and Giants. They showed that they can hang with the big boys, but can also go slumming with the NFL's doormats.

They went 9-8 last season, and only got into the playoffs on the strength of a tiebreaker over the Saints and Seahawks. But obviously what they did in the playoffs was eye-opening. At times Jordan Love looked like the second coming of Aaron Rodgers (the quarterback, not the weirdo conspiracy theorist), and other times he looked like a clueless rookie. Surrounding Love is the youngest roster in the NFL, by far.

This is a very hard team to predict heading into 2024.

The Eagles, meanwhile, are difficult for many to wrap their heads around as well, after starting 10-1 a season ago, and then absolutely crapping the bed in spectacular fashion down the stretch.

Heading into 2024, star players are littered all over the offense, and the team prioritized fixing their woeful pass defense during the offseason.

I'm picking the Eagles, for two reasons:

1. I'm trusting what I saw out of Jalen Hurts during training camp. He was dialed in, making good decisions with the football while also connecting on plenty of passes down the field. But just as importantly, he looked fast as a runner, an element of his game that wasn't quite there as he dealt with injuries during the back half of the season.
2. I like the Eagles' chances in the trenches. The Packers have a very good pass rush, but I'll always trust Jordan Mailata and especially Lane Johnson to shut down good edge rushers. On the other side of the ball, the Packers' offensive line has three shaky starters, as noted in our five matchups to watch.

I think the Eagles escape Brazil with a narrow win, something like 29-28.

Jaguars at Dolphins (-3): I love picking the Dolphins in early season home games, because opposing teams struggle with the unforgiving Miami heat and humidity in September. This year it might not seem to be as big an advantage against a team that is also used to the heat, from Jacksonville. Except... the Dolphins' sideline is in the shade, and the opponents' sideline is in the sun, shown here.

It's going to be 91º on Sunday, which if you know Miami heat is like 110º in Philly. #Science. I don't love this overrated Dolphins team, but give me the Dolphins.

Steelers at Falcons (-3.5): It feels like every year over the last half decade or so the football community warns that the Steelers will finally have a losing record. Conversely, it feels like the Falcons are propped up as some kind of potential breakout team. And then neither ever happens. The Steelers haven't had a losing record since 2003, and the Falcons haven't had a winning record since 2017.

I don't love hitching my wagon to Russell Wilson, but I also think this Falcons team will be fool's gold, as usual, and sure, I'll take 3.5 points. 

Vikings (-1.5) at Giants: It's not a good sign when you're home underdogs against a team being quarterbacked by Sam Darnold.

Panthers at Saints (-4): The Saints weren't a good football team last season, and yet they managed to win six games by double-digit points. Still, I can't bring myself to lay four points on this old boring-ass team Week 1.

Patriots at Bengals (-8): After watching the Patriots' offense in just one joint practice during training camp, I'm extremely confident that they aren't (a) going to be able to protect the quarterback or (b) score many points.

Titans at Bears (-4): My 2024 "way too overhyped" power rankings:

1. Bears
2. Packers
3. Texans
4. Falcons

The Bears have an intriguing trio of receivers in DJ Moore, Rome Odunze, and Keenan Allen, and their offensive line is better than it ever was during the Justin Fields era, but it's still going to take some time to go from division doormat to contender.

I do like them to take care of business and add to their hype Week 1 against a bad Titans team, though. 

Cardinals at Bills (-6.5): In our latest Eagles mailbag, I was posed the following question: 

Question from @DrewSportsNews: If you could pick 5 NFL teams -- and if one of those teams wins the Super Bowl, you get $100,000 -- which 5 teams would you choose?

Chiefs, 49ers, Ravens, Lions, and Bills, in that order. I'd have the Bengals 6th, and the Eagles 7th.

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A bunch of people on Twitter objected to the Bills being in my top 5, on the premise that they lost a bunch of players, like Stefon Diggs, Matt Milano, Gabe Davis, Micah Hyde, and Jordan Poyer.

I do agree that the Bills are unsettled at wide receiver, and the loss of Milano hurts (though he should be back at some point). However, this team was absolutely wrecked by injuries last season, and they were arguably the hottest team in the NFL heading into the playoffs anyway. Ultimately, they have the second-best quarterback in the NFL, which is usually good enough to make a team a legitimate Super Bowl contender. So, alright, I'll put my ATS record where my mouth is, and I'll lay the 6.5.

Texans (-3) at Colts: The Texans head into the 2024 season will all kinds of hype, which is warranted given that C.J. Stroud had one of the best rookie quarterback seasons ever in 2023.

But you know what? I kinda like this Colts team. They have a very good offensive line, a fresh Jonathan Taylor, underrated receivers, and a good front four on defense. And hell, they went 7-6 with freaking Gardner Minshew last season.

Each year I like to find an underrated team to ride in my picks early in the season until the betting community catches up. Sometimes I find one, sometimes I don't. This year that team entering Week 1 is the Colts.

Raiders at Chargers (-3): I don't know, who cares? Chargers, I guess?

Broncos at Seahawks (-6): The Broncos could be picking in the top five in the 2025 NFL Draft.

Commanders at Buccaneers (-3.5): As noted in the Hierarchy this week, I believe the Commanders will be one of the most improved teams in the NFL. And what the hell, let's pick them to win Week 1 on a big Jayden Daniels performance.

Cowboys at Browns (-2.5): Did I miss some news? Do the Browns have a new quarterback, or is it still Deshaun Watson? Why exactly would the Browns be favored over the Cowboys? I mean, this Cowboys season certainly has the potential to go sideways, but their concerns are mainly due to a lack of depth. They should be fine early in the season when everyone is still healthy. It's also perhaps worth noting that Dallas came out of the gate red hot last season, beating the Giants 40-0 and the Jets 30-10.

But also, let's consider the NFL Coach of the Year Award, which went to the Browns' Kevin Stefanski last season, after it was perceived that they overachieved last season, going 11-6 and making the playoffs. The Browns' offense finished 28th in DVOA, while their defense finished 2nd. Shouldn't Jim Schwartz at least get a percentage of that award? 

Anyway, the last time a team's coach won NFL Coach of the Year and then had a good follow-up season was in 2017, when Sean McVay won it, and then the Rams went to the Super Bowl the next season. Otherwise, winning that award usually isn't a good sign for the following season. Here are the last six NFL Coach of the Year winners, and what their teams did the next season:

They may as well call the NFL Coach of the Year Award the "Head Coach of the Team That Won More Games Than We Thought They Would" Award. Because the NFL regular season is so short compared to other leagues like the NBA, the NHL, and MLB, sometimes teams that aren't that good luck into good records, while good teams sometimes lose a higher percentage of games than they otherwise would over a longer stretch of time. The overachieving teams are set up to disappoint the following season, which history says will probably happen to the Browns in 2024.

Let's go ahead and make the Cowboys at +2.5 my pick of the week.

Rams at Lions (-3.5): This is a rematch of the fun game these two teams played in the wildcard round last year, when Dan Campbell was aggressive on fourth down decisions, and Sean McVay wasn't. 

The Lions have maybe the best offensive line in the NFL, and Aaron Donald retired this offseason. 

Jets at 49ers (-4): The Niners had terrible vibes all offseason, but I'm surprised this line is this low. They had 11 double-digit wins last season, and they have absolutely owned the now 40-year-old Aaron Rodgers over the years.

Survivor pick ☠️

1. Week 1: Bengals 🐯

• Last 9 years, ATS: 395-339-19 (0.537)

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