March 24, 2016
Villanova finally got over the “first-weekend hump” in Brooklyn on Sunday. Their main reward is not having to answer more questions about getting knocked out in the second round of the tournament.
In a way, most of the pressure is off ‘Nova. It better be, because the Wildcats are facing a major step-up in competition in the Sweet 16. The selection committee did Jay Wright no favors by placing his team in the South Region:
TV: CBS (Jim Nantz, Grant Hill, Bill Raftery, Tracy Wolfson) | RADIO: 610 Sports Radio WTEL (Ryan Fannon, Whitey Rigsby)
SPREAD: Villanova -4.5 | TOTAL: 140.0 (via topbet.eu)
And now onto our staff predictions, which feature a good ol' difference of opinion...
It’s hard for me to make a totally unbiased prediction for this game, but I’m going to try. The first thing to watch tonight is what I expect to be an epic battle between two senior guards, Ryan Arcidiacono and Angel Rodriguez. They play similar games, they’re both as tough a player as you’ll see all tournament, and each is the leader of his respective team. Rodriguez is one of three seniors who start for Miami — the other two are juniors — and that kind of experience always helps this time of year. But it’s not like the Wildcats haven’t had their share of tourney experience. In fact, they’ve been there each of the last three seasons, albeit not past the first weekend. There’s an argument to be made that Villanova is actually the more experienced team in March.
Another thing Miami has going against them in this game is the fact that they’ve struggled away from home this season — five of the team’s six regular season losses were in road/neutral locations. The same, however, can be said for Villanova, who had three of their four regular season losses come on the road. Still, 51 percent of the action is on the Hurricanes (+4.5) Thursday night, according to OddsShark.com, and I tend to agree. I don’t see the final scoring being lopsided one way or the other — after all, these teams are “mirror images” of one another — and the fact that Miami played in a much tougher conference this season leads me to believe they’re being undervalued by some. Not only am I taking the ‘Canes to cover, but I’m taking them outright as well.
I thought the Wildcats were going to make it out of the first weekend, but not necessarily in the resounding fashion that they did. Villanova came out of the Round of 32 with the highest average margin of victory in the tournament. The Wildcats didn’t just get the monkey off their back; they threw it. Miami didn’t blow Wichita State out, but convincingly ending the careers of Ron Baker and Fred Van Vleet is certainly nothing to sneeze at. They good.
This is a toss-up game between two teams that play similar styles (KenPom says ‘Nova wins 64% of the time). Prepare to see a lot of high ball screens on both ends of the floor. Back in 2009, ‘Nova responded to running UCLA out of the gym in the second round by doing the exact same thing to Duke in the Sweet 16. You could make the argument that the roles are reversed this time around, as Miami comes in as the more battle-tested team from the better conference.
I don’t really care, though. I liked what I saw from ‘Nova in Brooklyn.
Follow Rich on Twitter: @rich_hofmann
