March 26, 2016
The sliver lining to a lackluster Sweet 16 round, one chock-full of chalk advancing, is that high-level Elite 8 matchups are set. Perhaps nowhere more is that the case than in the South Region, where a heavyweight bout between No. 1 Kansas and No. 2 Villanova will occur tonight in Louisville.
Kansas is the tourney’s top overall seed, and they have been nothing but impressive in cruising through the first three round. Yet they probably haven’t been quite as impressive as Villanova over the past week. The Wildcats took Iowa and Miami to the shed, respectively.
These are both good teams, but the Jayhawks are unquestionably a major step up in competition:
• TV: CBS (Jim Nantz, Grant Hill, Bill Raftery, Tracy Wolfson)
• RADIO: 610 Sports Radio WTEL (Ryan Fannon, Whitey Rigsby)
• SPREAD: Kansas -2.5
• TOTAL: 145.5 (via topbet.eu)
And now onto our staff predictions…
If you asked me on Selection Sunday which I team I thought was coming out of the South Region, I would’ve said Kansas without much hesitation. Aside from a stretch of three losses in five games back in late January, the Jayhawks have been the best team in the country this season and have the kind of size that can give teams like Villanova and Miami — the other top teams in the South — a lot of trouble.
But watching Villanova all tournament, especially in their 23-point win over the Hurricanes on Thursday, it’s hard to see any team being able to keep up with them offensively. At some point, however, the Wildcats are going to have to cool off; they can’t keep scoring at an almost unfathomable pace of 1.58 points per possession. I’m not sure if this will be the game where they come crashing back down to Earth — you never can tell precisely when that’s going to happen — but I’m going to avoid the trap of that small three-game sample and stick with the team I picked to advance to the Final Four in my bracket. After all, even a little let down from Villanova on the offensive end could be enough for Kansas.
First thing’s first: The Jayhawks are a two-way juggernaut. The inclusion of rebounder and shot-blocker Landen Lucas into the starting lineup has paid off for Bill Self. Lucas can anchor the defense and serve as the perfect compliment for Perry Ellis, who learned how to shoulder a major offensive load when he watched Nick Collison and Drew Gooden as a redshirt freshman. Kansas has a bunch of physical wing and guard defenders who also happen to shoot 41.8 percent from deep as a team. They good.
Then again, so is Villanova. I don’t expect the Wildcats to shoot 50 percent from three against the Jayhawks, but do they have to? It would be one thing if they were winning close games with this torrid shooting, but Jay Wright’s team is running opponents out of the gym. They can “regress to the mean” and still be very competitive.
My key to the game is how the Wildcats deal with Ellis. If he is matched up with Kris Jenkins, can Big Smooth win the give-and-take by making as many threes as Ellis makes twos? That is a potential mismatch both ways.
I picked Kansas to win this region when the brackets came out, and Self has an awesome team. I just think they’re about to run into somebody that is playing better.
Follow Rich on Twitter: @rich_hofmann
