For Jay Wright’s Villanova Wildcats to get the proverbial monkey off their back and advance past the first weekend, they need to first knock off the UNC Asheville Bulldogs on Friday. It sounds simple, but going up against a fired-up underdog playing with house money can be all kinds of tricky.
Let’s be honest: I’ve never seen the Bulldogs play. Unless you tuned into the Big South title game, you’ve likely never seen the Bulldogs play. Considering it’s his job and all, Wright has, though.
“They got a 1-3-1 trap that is really aggressive and tough, they turn people over. They won’t be overmatched physically. They’re a little undersized but tough, athletic, and very skilled.”
“These guys are comparable to all of those good mid-majors that you see upset people,” Wright told reporters this week. “They’ve got multiple scorers, [and] they’re undersized but very tough and physical.”
Undersized might be an understatement. UNC Asheville’s starting lineup goes 6’2”, 6’3”, 6’4, 6’5”, and 6’5”.
“They’re really good, come after you defensively,” Wright said. “They got a 1-3-1 trap that is really aggressive and tough, they turn people over. They won’t be overmatched physically. They’re a little undersized but tough, athletic, and very skilled.”
Unlike St. Joe’s and Temple’s opponents, there is going to be an element of surprise with UNC Asheville leading up to this game. What do the numbers say?
What the numbers say
All stats are from KenPom.com. The numbers in parentheses are national ranks among 351 schools:
| Villanova | UNC Asheville | |
| Offense | 117.4 (31) | 102.5 (188) |
| Defense | 92.9 (7) | 98.3 (59) |
| Tempo | 67.4 (251) | 71.1 (71) |
As you would expect from a bunch of dudes around 6’4”, one of the ways that Asheville got to the dance is by frequently turning other teams over. The Bulldogs’ 22.4 defensive turnover percentage ranks 10th nationally. The other element of their game that is elite is the three-point defense. Opponents are shooting just 28.8 percent from behind the arc against UNC Asheville, which is second in the country.
If ‘Nova can get Daniel Ochefu close to full health, that really limits the chance of an upset. Teams are shooting 51.7 percent from two-point range against UNC Asheville and Ochefu can punish smaller defenders if he’s close to 100 percent.
Combine that with Villanova’s three point guards handling pressure, and it doesn’t look like a good matchup for the Bulldogs. Everything they do, ‘Nova seems to have an answer for on paper. That’s why they play the games, though.
Game, announcers, etc.
No. 2 Villanova vs. No. 15 UNC Asheville, 12:40 p.m.: truTV, Verne Lundquist, Jim Spanarkel and Allie LaForce
Expert picks (or famous people)
Barack Obama: Villanova
Myron Medcalf, ESPN: Villanova
Stewart Mandel, FOX Sports: Villanova
Chris Dobbertean, SB Nation: Villanova
Sports Illustrated: 10 of 10 analysts pick Villanova
Dan Steinberg, Washington Post: Villanova
CBS Sports: 12 of 12 analysts picked Villanova
KenPom: Villanova wins 90 percent of the time
So, they’re favorites.
Who wins?
The internet is a both a terrible and great place. Let’s focus on one of the positives here: There are people who write about all sports that simply just know more than mainstream writers. One of those writers is Jordan Majewski, who specializes is mid-major and low-major college hoops.
I checked back on Majewski’s Big South Tournament preview. He picked UNC Asheville to lose to Winthrop in the final (it was the other way around), but here is what he wrote about the Bulldogs:
They don’t have a PG or a 5, yet they they’re the best defense in the league and they turn you over at a 24% rate with a 14% steal rate. Nic McDevitt’s squad is comprised entirely of rim attacking tweeners like Dwayne Sutton, Dylan Smith, Ahmad Thomas, and Sam Hughes, and those guys use their versatility to bring a lot of up the line pressure and traps. They can’t and don’t shoot the three, so when they run into zones or teams that feature a steady, veteran backcourt, they can run into trouble.
UNC Asheville seems like a very capable 15 seed. This just sounds like a bad matchup for them. Villanova 80, UNC Asheville 66
Follow Rich on Twitter: @rich_hofmann