June 14, 2022
The US Open returns to Brookline, MA for the first time in 35 years with an extremely difficult course aimed at keeping the world’s best at or around par. Despite the ongoing discussions and drama flying about with LIV golf, plenty of guys on that tour will show up including Dustin Johnson and Phil Mickelson. This is an amazing course with one of the most electric fields we’ve seen in quite some time. Nobody has truly distanced themselves from the pack, which opens up an immense amount of value in both the betting world and DFS streets.
Let’s jump in and look at the best plays – along with the help from one of Philadelphia’s sharpest golf minds in Harry Mayes. For more information and any questions you have about betting the US Open or some deeper DFS plays, you can hang with Eytan and Harry here.
Shane Lowry: +300
This course demands accuracy everywhere with very little wiggle room if you make a mistake. Scrambling here will be key, as will avoiding mishits off the tee. The Country Club was made even tougher since it recently held the PGA Amateur Championship – won by Matt Fitzpatrick – and should be enough to limit scoring. Shane Lowry at 30-1 is the biggest steal on the board. He’s been playing exceptional golf with the ability to get out of any jam, and has been outstanding both off the tee and gaining strokes with approach shots. The greens are tight and are riddled with hazards, much like the fairways. Lowry has been playing much better than a 30-1 return and you should slam this before doing anything else.
Other plays
The only other plays that make sense from a betting standpoint are attacking the Top-20 markets. There are a few guys that stand out who have been playing great but mainly consistent all around. These are all single plays and take advantage of recent history and course comparisons – meaning a golfer who has faired well on a similar course design. Max Homa has been on a tear, no matter the competition or the course, and it’s amazing that his numbers are still above +150 for a T20. Matt Fitzpatrick only needs to come in 20th or better and has the iron play to do so. He’s a heavy public favorite to win, but I see him as a better option for plus money at T20. Harold Varner III is the last guy to look at from a T20 standpoint. When he’s been on, few have been better from tee to green, and so long as his putter is working, he should be able to distance himself from most of the field.
Xander Schauffele: +2200W, +400T5, $9,600 DK
This guy is tailor made for US Open set ups with a long accurate driver game (4th in Total Driving), great iron play (12th Strokes Gained Approach) and 16th in GIR, hitting 69% of his greens. X-Man is also 7th in Strokes Gained Tee to Green and has made 12 of 14 cuts this season. He has finished no worse than 7th in his last five US Open starts, 7th in ’21, 5th in ’20, 3rd in ’19, 6th in ’18 and 5th in 2017. He is over due to breakthrough with a Major and with Poa Annua in the greens he should feel at home.
Billy Horschel: +5500W, +450T10, $8,600 DK
Billy Ho captured his 7th PGA Tour win a few days ago at Jack’s place, posting 13-under on a very difficult course set up and winning by four shots…I’d say he’s in great form. He’s made 12-of-13 cuts and has three T10’s thus far this season. He’s 10th in Driving Accuracy (68.5%) and 27th in GIR (68.3%), 12th in Strokes Gained Around the Green and 10th in SG Putting, making 100% at 3’ and 82.5% at 6’. Love this Gator in my lineups this week and will sprinkle him to win and T10.
Keegan Bradley: $7,500 DK
Keegan is having a great season and will have New England fans behind him at Brookline. He’s made 13-of-16 cuts with four T10’s to his record. Recently he’s finished 2nd at Wells Fargo and 8th at Valero on really tough courses. I like his form and the local aspect enough to use him in lineups this week.
DFS LONGSHOT
The main similarity found between DFS builds and bets in golf is simply identifying people who can make the cut. Finding someone in the $6k range is like spotting the best top 40 bet at plus money. There seems to be a belief that Phil Mickelson can no longer play golf, similar to what we saw with Tiger Woods struggling his last time. As much as he’s become an enemy of the state, he’s still showing up to compete. Unlike Woods who was pretty much a 3-D poster for most of his last outing, Mickelson has enough left in his bag to compete – for a top 40 spot and make this difficult cut. It won’t be easy, but this isn’t a bombers course, and accuracy all around is still something he can lean on. This course comes down to approach shots and putting, something Phil can still do well enough to hang around and piss enough people off this weekend. Never underestimate the human element in golf.
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