January 07, 2015
With a little over a month left - that feels amazing to write - until pitchers and catchers report to spring training, let's take a look around the National League East to see how the hot stove season could impact the division.
It's hard to grade the offseason of a team that is admitting to a rebuild. On one hand, there's no point in acquiring any big-name players* via free agency or trade.
*Unless that player figures to be an integral part of your team once it's done rebuilding.
On the other hand, moves must be made. Sure, they'll likely involve sending away a fan-favorite, like Jimmy Rollins, in exchange for some guys you've never heard of before. But when you're driving uphill, there's little difference between neutral and reverse.
Last offseason, the Phillies did very little in terms of ridding themselves of prohibitive contracts and now find themselves facing an even bleaker outlook.
There hasn't been much to excite Phillies fans this winter, but that's a good thing. If the Phillies are truly committed to rebuilding, they need to make more moves like the one that sent Rollins to the Dodgers. Or the low-cost, low-risk signing of Aaron Harang.
And that's what makes the Phillies offseason so hard to judge. They still haven't unloaded enough expensive or expiring contracts to call it a success, but that could change at a moments notice if the team deals Cole Hamels.
There are others too, like Ryan Howard and Jonathan Papelbon. They may be struggling to find a trade partner because other teams are seeking more financial relief* than the Phillies are willing to pay. Or perhaps Amaro is asking for prospects that rival GMs are hesitant to give up.
*It's their own fault overpaying Howard and Papelbon in the first place.
Even if the Phillies can work out a deal for one of their high profile players - Hamels is the most likely at this point - they need to get the right prospects back. What they don't need is a repeat of the 2009 deal that sent Cliff Lee to the Mariners (even if Lee made his way back to Philly a year later). Of the three players they got back (Tyson Gillies, Phillippe Aumont and J.C. Ramirez), only Aumont and Ramirez have seen action at the big-league level and they have a combined career WAR of -1.1.
So far this winter, though, the Phillies seem to be getting decent* prospects in return.
*It's relative, since they haven't traded away a player, like Hamels, that you would expect to fetch an organization's top young talent.
Tom Windle and Zach Eflin, the pitchers they got in return for Rollins, will add depth on the farm, as will RHP Ben Lively, whom the Reds sent back in the Marlon Byrd deal.
The moves the Phillies have made this offseason won't lead to another parade down Broad Street, but they certainly won't cripple the franchise. They've done enough of that already.
KEY ADDITIONS: Aaron Harang, Ben Lively, Tom Windle, Zach Eflin, Kevin Slowey, Jeff Francoeur
KEY LOSSES: Jimmy Rollins, Marlon Byrd, A.J. Burnett, Kyle Kendrick, Antonio Bastardo
There's only one place to start when talking about Miami's offseason: Giancarlo Stanton.
The 25-year-old slugger signed a monstrous 13-year, $300 million contract extension that will keep Stanton in South Florida until he's 38, unless of course he exercises an opt-out clause that becomes available in 2020. To entice Stanton to stay beyond that, historically cheap* owner Jeffrey Loria and David Sampson will need to prove that they are capable of constructing a competitive lineup around Stanton.
*From 2006-2009, the Marlins Opening Day payroll averaged $26 million. After 2017, the Marlins will have about that much tied up in one player, Stanton.
Here's a look at what Stanton is owed for the rest of his deal:
2016 - $9,000,000
2017 - $14,500,000
2018 - $25,000,000
2019 - $26,000,000
2020 - $26,000,000
2021 - $29,000,000
2022 - $29,000,000
2023 - $32,000,000
2024 - $32,000,000
2025 - $32,000,000
2026 - $29,000,000
2027 - $25,000,000
2028 - $25,000,000 -- This a team option with a $10M buyout
If Loria isn't looking to spend, he'll have some work to do. He can always ask Amaro how hard it is having so much of a team's payroll tied up in one* player.
*Amaro has three such players: Hamels, Howard and Lee
So have the Marlins gotten off to a good start?
Well, they traded Andrew Heaney, their top prospect, to the Dodgers in return for Dee Gordon, Dan Haren (who already wants out of Miami), Miguel Rojas, and cash. They also traded young pitcher Nathan Eovaldi, Garrett Jones, and their sixth-ranked prospect Domingo German to the Yankees for Martin Prado and David Phelps.
Prado will likely replace Casey McGehee at third, who was traded to the Giants for a pair of prospects. They also acquired Mat Latos, presumably to take Eovaldi's spot in the rotation, from the Reds.
So while the Marlins made a lot of moves, they seem to be only slightly better than they were at this point last season. Granted, they had some young talent last season that they expect to take a step forward in 2015 and expect Jose Fernandez, one of the best young pitchers in baseball, to return at some point this season, so the wild card isn't out of the question. They'll have a much tougher time trying to catch the Nationals.
KEY ADDITIONS: Dee Gordon, Dan Haren (maybe), Mat Latos, Martin Prado, David Phelps, Miguel Rojas
KEY LOSSES: Garrett Jones, Nathan Eovaldi, Domingo German, Andrew Heaney, Casey McGehee, Anthony DeSclafani, Chad Wallach
The Mets, who finished tied with the Braves for second in the NL East last season, had two notable signings this winter, and one of them involved John Mayberry Jr.
I can probably stop there.
For the sake of being thorough, however, their bigger signing was inking Michael Cuddyer to a two-year deal. I know, not really franchise-changing.
Like the Marlins, however, the Mets' best young pitcher, Matt Harvey, will be returning to action this spring after missing 2014 with Tommy John surgery. But is it a good sign when the team doctor is having the biggest impact on your offseason?
KEY ADDITIONS: Michael Cuddyer, John Mayberry Jr.
KEY LOSSES: Daisuke Matsuzaka, Bobby Abreu, Jose Valverde
The Braves offseason has been interesting to say the least. They traded away Justin Upton and Jason Heyward (as well as highly-touted prospect Aaron Northcraft). They let Ervin Santana, Chris Medlen, Aaron Harang, and Brandon Beachy leave in free agency.
All the signs of a team preparing to rebuild, right?
Then they signed Nick Markakis to a four-year deal that seemed to be counterintuitive to everything they had previously done. Even with that move, however, it seems they are resigned to taking a year or two off from competing.
Remember when the NL East was competitive?
KEY ADDITIONS: Nick Markakis, A.J. Pierzynski, Alberto Callaspo
KEY LOSSES: Jason Heyward, Justin Upton, Aaron Harang, Ervin Santana, Chris Medlen, Brandon Beachy.
Does anyone want to challenge the Nats?
Judging by what the rest of the NL East has done so far this offseason, it would appear not. And maybe that's because this team is clearly still the class of the division.
At 96-66 in 2014, the Nationals were 17 games ahead of the rest of the division. If you win 96 games, there aren't many changes that need to be made. They exercised a club option on Denard Span and signed Heath Bell and Dan Uggla to minor-league deals.
Other than that, the Nats have been quiet. And if I was a fan, I'd be perfectly happy with that. If there is a big move in their future, I would bet that it comes during the season, closer to the trade deadline. They shouldn't have any problem winning the East, and if a World Series is their goal, they'll know more about themselves by July and be able to better fix any issues (injuries, under-achieving players, etc.) as they prepare for a postseason run.
KEY ADDITIONS: Heath Bell, Dan Uggla
KEY LOSSES: Adam LaRoche, Asdrubal Cabrera, Ross Detwiler, Rafael Soriano
