Three Phillies predictions for 2024

With Opening Day coming on Friday, the Philadelphia Phillies hope to put their 2023 postseason collapse in the rearview mirror and contend for a World Series in 2024. President of Baseball Operations Dave Dombrowski has assembled a team that is nearly identical to the one that fell one win short of a second straight National League pennant. But with a new season comes new storylines, new versions of players and, in recent seasons, new rules.

Ahead of the Phillies opening their season against the Atlanta Braves on Thursday afternoon, here are three predictions for the team in 2024:

Trea Turner will lead the team in MVP votes

Winning an MVP is extremely difficult, and so I did not want to go as far as to say Turner will take home the award for the first time in his career -- especially with players like Ronald Acuña Jr., Shohei Ohtani, Mookie Betts and others in the National League. But I believe Turner has a much better chance of being the Phillies' most valuable position player than some realize. 

Turner's performance at the plate was as brilliant during the last couple of months of the 2023 season as it was abominable in the months prior. As you certainly know by now, his season went from disastrous to respectable in the aggregate after receiving standing ovations from the Philadelphia crowd at the beginning of August. Was the support Turner received from the city truly the cause of his breakout? Nobody can answer that definitively. But the numbers are jarring:

There is no doubt that Turner is both considerably better than he exhibited in his first 107 games, but he also is not as dominant as he looked in his final 48 appearances. But Turner's track record of being a full-blown superstar predates Aug. of 2023. According to FanGraphs, Turner accumulated 13.3 wins above replacement (WAR) between 2021 and 2022, a gargantuan number, thanks to his combination of an elite bat, 80-grade base-running ability and well-regarded defense.

But in 2023, Turner had the worst defensive season of his career. Aside from the epic 6-4-3 double play he initiated with a diving play in Game 1 of the National League Division Series against the Braves, the largely struggled at shortstop -- while Turner has never been a Gold Glove Award recipient, it was still a clear step backwards.

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Meanwhile, Turner did not get caught stealing one time in the 2023 regular season. This is a remarkable feat, but it was also a testament to confusing passivity: in a year in which stolen bases became en vogue again due to Major League Baseball's rule changes, he only swiped 30 bags. Don't get me wrong, stealing 30 bases is valuable, but Turner is unquestionably capable of adding even more value on the base-paths -- especially if he can avoid a stretch of 100+ games with an on-base percentage below .300.

There is no question that Bryce Harper is the face of the Phillies. He may also be the most reliable position player on the Phillies. But Turner's disappointing first campaign in Philadelphia has distracted some from the massive upside he contains.

The bullpen will live up to the hype

Various rankings within the industry have identified the Phillies as having the best bullpen in the major leagues, symbolizing an incredible turnaround by Dombrowski and the team's pitching and player development coaches. FanGraphs' projections indicate that the Phillies will receive more WAR from relief pitchers than any other team this season, a far cry from the disastrous 2020 bullpen which broke records in futility.

Dombrowski's front office clearly has a type: identify powerful arms with top-flight velocity and stuff, and then try to help those pitchers learn to stay in and around the strike zone. Their crown jewel of sorts is lefty flamethrower Jose Alvarado, who after a stint in Triple-A in 2022 gained confidence and became arguably the game's most effective southpaw. Another major win for the team was last year's signing of Jeff Hoffman to a minor league deal -- Hoffman went on to become the team's most reliable right-handed arm, often responsible for getting out of tough jams, thanks to increased velocity and tremendous strikeout numbers.

Gregory Soto was an All-Star closer for the Detroit Tigers before being traded to the Phillies, but his first season in red pinstripes was a bit disappointing. Soto was fine in a vacuum -- and peripheral stats suggest he was the victim of bad luck -- but he was far too prone to blowing up to be a reliable high-leverage arm in the postseason. But Soto throws nearly as hard as Alvarado, trimmed his walk rate significantly last year. Soto allowed just 3.2 walks per nine innings in 2023, after allowing more than five bases on balls per nine innings in every season of his career until that point. Soto seems primed for a resurgent season.

The Phillies know what they are getting in fellow lefty Matt Strahm -- a reliable arm who can serve in any role that is asked of him. Strahm succeeded last season as a starting pitcher, a one-inning reliever, a multi-inning reliever and as a guy who could escape jams.

Then there are two right-handed wild cards.

First is rookie Orion Kerkering, who had a meteoric rise through the minor leagues in 2023 and became an important part of the team's bullpen in October before a combination of fatigue and one-dimensional pitch sequencing led to his downfall in the National League Championship Series. Kerkering has a brilliant slider with ridiculous horizontal movement and a fastball that can touch triple digits. There is some refining to do there, but the Phillies have faith that he can be a major part of their bullpen in 2024, and it is hard to argue. Kerkering will open the season on the 10-day Injured List after a battle with the flu interrupted his spring, but he is not expected to miss much time.

Seranthony Dominguez, meanwhile, has shown flashes of absolute dominance in important situations on several occasions, but he has also had trouble remaining consistent. He figures to be a viable middle reliever and occasional set-up man at the very least, but if he got back to the version of himself that tormented opposing hitters in the 2022 Postseason, this bullpen will be even more dangerous.

With this strong assortment of options at the disposal of manager Rob Thomson -- whose bullpen management since taking over in June of 2022 has been impressive -- the Phillies really might go from one of the worst bullpens in baseball history to the best unit in baseball in a four-year span.

Alec Bohm does not break out

After a stunningly impactful rookie season in the 60-game regular season in 2020 in which he hit .338 and led the majors in hits over the last month of the season, Bohm came crashing down to Earth. He has logged three full seasons since then, and the exploits of his star teammates and some timely hits from the third baseman have overshadowed the fact that he has simply never been a good major leaguer since 2020.

That may sound a tad severe, but it is the harsh reality: Bohm is still considerably below average at third base despite making admirable improvements, and no matter how many times people speculate about whether or not his untapped potential as a power hitter will come into play, he remains a slap hitter. In 456 career games, Bohm has hit just 44 home runs.

Can Bohm theoretically develop increased power? Sure. But he turns 28 this summer, and at some point he needs to be evaluated for what he is, not for what he could be in some imagined hypothetical scenario. Bohm can be relied on to hit for a decent batting average, but he rarely draws walks, his average exit velocity numbers have dipped in each of the last three years and no matter what he does, he is going to be limited as a third baseman.

To that end, FanGraphs projects the Phillies to be 25th in the majors in WAR from third basemen. With Harper firmly planted at first base and Kyle Schwarber serving as the team's every day designated hitter, there is no other place for Bohm in the lineup. Bohm has given the Phillies many memorable moments since being called up, but he is running out of opportunities to make the kind of leap the team has long been hoping to see. I am skeptical that he will suddenly develop the kind of power stroke he was expected to have when the Phillies drafted him third overall in 2018. If he fails to do so, the Phillies will be looking for a new third baseman sooner than one might expect.