More than 39 million people could die worldwide from antibiotic resistance by 2050, according to a new analysis.
Antibiotic resistance occurs when bacteria and other pathogens metamorphosize in ways that evade current antimicrobial medicines, limiting treatment for such infections and leading to superbugs that resist treatment. The rise of superbugs and antibiotic resistance is a global health concern. The study, published in the Lancet, found that antibiotic resistance led to more than 1 million deaths each year between 1990 and 2021.
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"Antimicrobial medicines are one of the cornerstones of modern healthcare, and increasing resistance to them is a major cause for concern," study author Dr. Mohsen Naghavi, of the University of Washington, said in a statement. "Understanding how trends in AMR deaths have changed over time, and how they are likely to shift in future, is vital to make informed decisions to help save lives."
Deaths from antibiotic resistance decreased for children under 5 by 50% between 1990 and 2021, but they increased by 80% for people 70 and older during the same time period, according to the findings. The researchers forecast that deaths due to antibiotic resistance will rise by nearly 70% by 2050 compared to 2022, greatly impacting older people in particular.
"The fall in deaths from sepsis and AMR among young children over the past three decades is an incredible achievement," study author Dr. Kevin Ikuta, of the University of California Los Angeles, said in a statement. "However, these findings show that while infections have become less common in young children, they have become harder to treat when they occur. Further, the threat to older people from AMR will only increase as populations age."
Improved access to health care and the development of new antibiotics could save 92 million lives over the next 25 years, according to the study.
Researchers tracked infections and deaths in 204 countries tied to 22 germs and 11 infectious syndromes, including meningitis and bloodstream infections. The hospital data, death records and antibiotic data use of 520 million people were used in the study.