December 07, 2018
Each Friday for PhillyVoice, Steve Maltepes, known as “The Philly Godfather,” will impart his gambling wisdom on the Eagles and where the smart money is going on various pro and college football games this weekend. Maltepes is one of the nation’s hottest sports betting experts who appears weekly on national radio and has his own website, www.thephillygodfather.com.
Philadelphia Eagles at Dallas Cowboys, 4:20 p.m. Sunday
(Games 129 & 130 on the sports betting screen)
The Line: Cowboys minus-3.5/Total: 44
What is the line telling you: Four weeks ago, Dallas came to Philly as large 7-point underdogs, and this week, oddsmakers and offshore made the 7-5 Cowboys, who have won four straight, as 4-point home favorites. The combined total opened at 43.5, and since then, we’ve been a half-point uptick across the board. As of right now, it’s painted at 44 everywhere. We saw an influx of sharp money bang the Eagles on Tuesday, which forced bookmakers to adjust the price down to 3.5. Good for all Philly fans is that the public is all over the Cowboys here, with 68-percent of all tickets placed in Vegas and offshore. But the much bigger bets, the sharper action is all over the Eagles, with 55-percent of the overall money on Philly. We’ve seen a huge 11-point over adjustment to the line here in a two-game sample size, which is insane. The oddsmakers have pumped this number a little bit, especially after the Cowboys are coming off their huge emotional win last Thursday over the New Orleans Saints. The Eagles are starting to get healthy on defense, Lane Johnson is back and Golden Tate has gotten acclimated to the offense.
Bottom line: The smart money likes the Eagles and the over.
Baltimore Ravens at Kansas City Chiefs, 1:00 p.m. Sunday
(Games 105 & 106 on the sports betting screen)
The Line: Chiefs minus-6.5/Total: 51
What is the line telling you: Oddsmakers opened this line with the money-making 10-2 Kansas City Chiefs, who have covered the spread 72.7-percent of the time this year, as 7-point favorites and total started at 49. We’ve seen wave, after wave, after wave of sharp money by the hook and all of the plus-7s they could find on the Ravens. That forced sports books to drop that key number of 7 and the total has moved to where it is currently priced at 51. Early market reports are showing that 77-percent of all sports bettors back the Chiefs in Vegas and in the islands. The public loves dynamic offensive football teams. They love betting in this Chiefs team, and you can’t blame them, they’ve made them a lot of money. The sharp money took a huge bite on the Ravens here. Kansas City losing Kareem Hunt will definitely hurt them. The Chiefs defense ranks dead last in run-stopping efficiency.
Bottom line: The smart money likes the Ravens.
Los Angeles Rams at Chicago Bears, 8:20 p.m. Sunday
(Games 119 & 120 on the sports betting screen)
The Line: Rams minus-3/Total: 51.5
What is the line telling you: The oddsmakers started the Rams as 3-point road favorites at Soldier Field over the 8-4 Bears, with the overall total set at 54. We immediately saw sharp money hit the screen on the under, which forced the books to lower the line to where it currently sits at 51.5. There was minimal movement on a side. The early reports were showing a whopping 78-percent of all tickets punched on the Vegas strip has been on the Rams. As great as the Rams’ straight-up record looks this year, with only one loss, this team has been actually underperforming in the market. They’ve only covered in 45-percent of their games this year. They look vulnerable at times for a team with 11 wins. This is a tough spot considering the severe weather conditions in Chicago. It has more of an effect on offense. Hands get numb and it’s hard to move with precision. Every hit feels like you’ve been hit with a Mack truck. When Khalil Mack gets going, the Rams are going to feel like they got run over by a tractor trailer. Warm-weather teams can’t stop the run and the Rams fit right into that criteria. The Rams are ranked No. 25 in defensive efficiency against the run. The Chicago Bears are ranked No. 1 against the run and No. 3 in opponent’s average per rushing attempt.
Bottom line: The smart money likes the Bears and the under.
College games
Army minus-7 over Navy (Games 103-104)
(Betting lines are subject to change.)
The Philly Godfather can be followed on twitter @Phillygodfather & his website is www.thephillygodfather.com.
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