There is very little mystery left in the lead-up to Game 1 of Sixers vs. Raptors on Saturday evening, this opponent and these teams are rather familiar with one another by now. The Sixers need to prevent Toronto from crashing the glass and running the break. The Raptors need to prove their halfcourt offense is good enough to win a playoff series, and overcome the fact that the Sixers have the series' best player.
One of the only things left to figure out is who ultimately gets the minutes behind Joel Embiid. Based on Doc Rivers' very forceful comments last Sunday, Paul Reed is expected to get the minutes over DeAndre Jordan against a smaller Raptors group. Whether Rivers sticks to his recent proclamation of Reed vs. smaller fives and Jordan vs. bigger fives is another story, and the Game 1 minutes could either strengthen his resolve or cause him to go back on his pre-series commitment, depending on how they go.
Insofar as commentary from the backup bigs matters going into the series, Jordan delivered a team-focused message to reporters on Saturday morning, a sign that perhaps he is ready to watch and observe if that's what it comes down to.
"I'm going to be a team player, whatever they need me to do. Obviously, each game throughout the season, each game throughout the playoffs, every series is different. It may require a bigger lineup, it may require a smaller lineup, it may be situations where I play or don't play, Paul Reed plays or he doesn't play, Paul Millsap plays or he doesn't play," Jordan said. "That's what makes us a team is that, we got every little piece to make the whole thing work, and I think everybody has to be able to sacrifice, whether it be offense, defense, playing times, shots, whatever it is, we want to reach the ultimate goal."
Reed is a man of fewer words, comparatively speaking, but he has won over a lot of fans during his short time in Philadelphia with his self-assessed "dog mentality," an approach to the game that gets him in trouble as often as it helps him collect an offensive rebound. It is no secret that fouling is Reed's biggest weakness at the moment, with the 22-year-old big picking up over nine fouls per 100 possessions in limited reps this season. His propensity for fouling, Jordan said Saturday, is something the rest of the group likes to poke fun at him for, knowing that it was something that they once did when they were younger and less experienced.
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When he has gotten his opportunities to play, though, the Sixers have not made much of an attempt to curb Reed's aggression, as they believe it is what ultimately makes him a useful player that might help them in a tough series against Toronto.
"I don't worry about it, honestly. I told him, I don't care about your fouls. That's where he struggles with bigger guys," Rivers said after a recent win over Indiana. "He's too young to try to tell him to play a different way, so you just let him play the way he plays. It's taken him a while, he's really starting to figure out where to be on the floor, to run sets, how to run a set. He had one where he got the rebound and went into a dribble handoff, a month ago he would have tried a spin move or something like that. Getting guys to understand who they are and their role on a team is very hard...he's doing it, and he's like Tyrese [Maxey] too, he's another worker, guy just works his butt off."
"One thing I definitely got to do is stay out of foul trouble, you seen that last game," Reed said. "The other thing is to rebound the heck out of the ball and play hard. Coach, he's not worried about me fouling out or anything like that. He just wants me to continue to play hard and rebound and continue to give the team that energy I can give."
Whether it's Reed or Jordan in Game 1 through the rest of the series, those minutes without Embiid on the floor will be absolutely massive in this series. In the minutes where Embiid tends to sit, the Raptors run lineups featuring the Fred Van Vleet/Gary Trent Jr. backcourt along with Pascal Siakam and a frontcourt pairing of Precious Achiuwa and Chris Boucher. The foursome of Siakam/VanVleet/Achiuwa/Trent Jr. with Boucher off outscores teams by about 16 points per 100 possessions. Swap Boucher for Achiuwa and they're still winning by about 11 points per 100 possessions. All five guys, admittedly in a small sample, were roughly 20.4 points better than their opponent per 100 possessions.
It would not be the first time a series swung because of the minutes with Embiid on the bench. Hell, it would not be the first time a series swung because of the minutes with Embiid on the bench against the Toronto Raptors.
When the second quarter starts, we'll see how it goes, in other words. If it's Reed who ends up getting a chance to play important minutes, it will be a gigantic test of a hard-working but nonetheless untested player. He hardly seems worried about the possibility.
"I'm looking forward to getting the win and being a big reason, helping the team out," Reed said Saturday morning.
Quotables
The pressure Harden is facing in the playoffs
Embiid: "I tell him to just be himself. He's been doing a great job of being a playmaker, but we need him to be aggressive and really score the ball. Especially against Toronto, with the way they guard me we're going to need everybody. We're going to need Tyrese [Maxey] to be aggressive with all the attention that's going to be on me and James. Tyrese, Tobias [Harris], all the other guys, they got to make plays. But [Harden] just has to be himself, not worry about people talking about pressure or whatever happened in the past. You look back at what he's accomplished and what he's done, he had to play against a freaking dynasty. It would have been hard for anybody to beat those Golden State teams. Bad timing, but I'm sure he's going to be fine."
Harden: "Pressure? Nah. I feel good. I'm ready to hoop. Nothing to it."
(Narrator: there is pressure, even if they don't acknowledge it.)
Preparing for the Raptors
Rivers: "I guess the one good thing, the good thing about playing Toronto, they are who they are. They're long, they're athletic, and they don't change much. They do change a lot of defenses and all that stuff, but at the end of the day it's all about their length, their speed, their aggressiveness, and so you have to combat that."
(So, they don't change much, but they change their defense all of the time, which is essentially the team's identity. Got it.)
Anticipating Game 1 after a week of practice
Jordan: "It's kind of like training camp again. You're tired of like, guarding each other, elbowing each other, screaming at each other, you want to do that against somebody else. But I think it's important to have days like that because it helps us harness our energy, emotions, whatever they may be, to be able to go out there and control it tonight. Game 1 of the playoffs can be a little like the first game after the All Star break, the first game of the season. It can be a little sloppy, it can be some fouling, just because everybody's so excited to be back out there again. But I think that we'll settle into it pretty quickly and compete."
Who's in, who's out?
Toronto: Nobody on the injury report as of Saturday morning.
Philadelphia: Charles Bassey, OUT (right shoulder sprain). Jaden Springer, QUESTIONABLE (right knee contusion).
Due respect to Bassey and Springer, but neither of them were going to get on the floor of this game even if they were 150 percent healthy. The week off after the season finale is a nice benefit for teams who earn the auto-qualifying bids, allowing anyone with bumps and bruises to get a little extra time on the sideline.
(Whether Bassey is a guy who should be a potential option in this series is another story, but it has been so long since he played real NBA minutes that even I can't advocate throwing him out there at this point. A lot riding on Paul Reed in this series, it turns out.)
Who's officiating the game?
Crew chief: Kane Fitzgerald
Referee: Bill Kennedy
Umpire: Jacyn Goble
Alternate: Derrick Collins
Broadly speaking, nobody who makes you raise an eyebrow. There are some trends that will potentially work against them, but nothing crazy. Crew chief Kane Fitzgerald skews slightly in favor of road teams, with a foul differential of roughly two per game that leans toward visiting teams. That said, home teams won about 73 percent of the games he officiated this season, so it clearly didn't have an adverse effect on the hosts. And if you're the betting type, home teams have an excellent record ATS with Fitzgerald in the crew.
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