November 18, 2024

Sixers-Heat preview: Is a Jimmy Butler trade coming?

Is Jimmy Butler going to depart Miami soon, and how have the Heat responded to losing Kyle Lowry? Learning about that and more ahead of Heat-Sixers on Monday night.

By Adam Aaronson
PhillyVoice Staff

Bill Streicher/Imagn Images

Things have not gone well in Miami since the Heat traded Kyle Lowry away, as Jimmy Butler's long-term future with the organization has become in doubt.

The Sixers got a weekend off in beautiful Florida after their horrific loss to the Orlando Magic on Friday night. Now, they will return to action in Miami as they face the Heat in hopes of... improving to 3-10 on the season.

Here to talk about a Miami team in a bit of distress is John Jablonka, who has tremendous Heat and NBA analysis on his Substack, Simply Ballin as well as All U Can Heat. Let's talk to John:

MORE: Sixers 86, Magic 98

Adam Aaronson: I have to lead with a Jimmy Butler question, because like his availability for this game, Butler's future seems very much up in the air right now. From your perspective, what is the current state of Butler's relationship with the Heat, and how real is the chance he plays for another team in the near future?

John Jablonka: This might be the biggest cop-out answer but everything might be on the table with Butler and I wouldn’t be surprised with whatever happens. Butler gives off a Kawhi Leonard kind of vibe when it comes to what he might be feeling about anything whether it’s the team, the front office or what he’s going to do in the future.

Before he came to Miami, the overall vibe was as good as it can get. There were obviously all the rumors and reports about how he’s been a locker room cancer and countless incidents clashing with not only players but coaches and management. But here in Miami, he was obviously welcomed right away by the fans and everyone in the franchise. I don’t think that has changed at all with him and the relationship with the coaching staff or management.

There was that whole Pat Riley calling him out in the presser incident, but it wouldn’t surprise me if that was an ordinary Wednesday for the Heat. This is the same Butler that had to be restrained from going after Erik Spoelstra in a huddle before they went on to make a deep playoff run, business as usual. Whatever happens with Butler’s situation, I think that would be an independent decision he makes because he thinks it’s best for him in other ways, rather than the relationship being broken.

As for Butler playing for another team, that is a very likely possibility. He and his agent have said he wants to get paid. The Heat were reluctant to give him a contract extension. Depending on his play and how the market can be in the future, anything is on the table. It really is a weird situation, because it depends on so many different factors that can swing the decision either way, so it’s tough to predict.

AA: Once every few years, everybody prepares to write an obituary for this era of Heat basketball -- and the team inevitably makes a resurgence. Do you believe that is in the cards this season, or has the time finally come for the Heat to rebuild?

JJ: The logical part of me says it’s over, but the fan still is holding on to whatever is left. If it isn’t over, it definitely is the last dance because even through the thickest fan goggles, I can’t see another year of this core legitimately competing for a title.

Everything that could potentially lead to a resurgence starts and ends with Butler. In both 2022 and 2023 deep playoff runs, it all involved Butler playing at minimum a top-10 level. In certain stretches, he played like a top-three player. Every contender needs that caliber of a player and if they don’t, nothing else really matters. The depth of young players that they may have likely won’t matter. Terry Rozier wouldn’t be making a difference. Even the improvement from Tyler Herro wouldn’t make the resurgence possible.

I want to believe that Butler can flip the switch come April. He’s been doing everything to show otherwise, though, and his recent injuries to his ankle also make it less convincing. I also want to point out that the whole idea of Butler flipping the switch is overexaggerated in just the general view you may see on social media. The whole Butler is “trolling” the regular season narrative is not what usually happens. He was always involved in the offense. He looked engaged. He was an impactful best player on the Heat in different ways. That hasn’t been the case at all this year.

At the same time, for me, he has earned the biggest benefit of the doubt and I won’t believe he can’t do that until the time comes. If that does happen, they’d still need 11 out of 10 things to go right for them. They’d need the right matchups, injury luck, hot shooting, and random breakouts. With so many things needing to go right, I can’t see them having a similar run to previous years.

MORE: Heat stand pat in offseason

AA: Speaking of Rozier, he is the reason Kyle Lowry is a Sixer. Miami traded Lowry and a first-round pick for Rozier last season (Lowry was then bought out by the Charlotte Hornets, making him a free agent). How has Rozier played since the deal, and how would you review the Lowry-for-Rozier trade in retrospect?

JJ: If I could, I’d be answering this with the “If I speak, I’m in trouble” GIF, because it hasn’t been pretty at all.

Rozier has been as advertised. A very streaky, consistently inconsistent small guard who needs the ball to be effective but isn’t good for that role because of his ball dominance, poor shot diet, limited passing, and much worse defense than I ever expected. This year it has been worse than usual, as he was coming back from a neck injury that was a lot more serious than you’d expect. He’s definitely not this level of bad when it comes to his scoring and efficiency.

But this was a bad, bad deal. Trading an expiring contract that would’ve given the Heat more flexibility below the second apron and also trading a first-round pick from an already limited war chest doesn’t make much sense.

Initially, I assumed this was going to be trading for a guard that can give you a slight shot creation boost and rim pressure that they haven’t had since Goran Dragić. I wasn’t expecting the Rozier-lite version from the Hornets. He should bounce back to at least his career-averages, but even when he does, it still likely won’t be great or be a significant change.