February 04, 2022
The Sixers start off the weekend tonight in Dallas as a short road favorite, then hit Chicago for an afternoon matinee with the Bulls. We have some slight movement in the futures markets to look at, on top of some good angles to take in tonight’s game. Our deeper dive on how to bet the Sixers continues – including what to do with Ben Simmons and how we can possibly monetize the situation.
Let's dive into some of the latest Sixers odds...
Sixers Moneyline (-102 at FanDuel)
Both teams are coming off bad losses as the Sixers dropped one at home to Washington and the Mavs fell to the Thunder. With Joel Embiid getting a game off this week, the Sixers are relatively healthy – although Seth Curry is questionable – heading into this two-game road trip. The Mavs are not, down Kristaps Porzingis and Tim Hardaway Jr. It’s a lot for Luka Doncic to beat this Sixers team that won five straight before the Wizards loss. Embiid continues his MVP-leading campaign and Tyrese Maxey continues to shine. Doncic will keep his team in it, but ultimately this is a Sixers win.
Tobias Harris OVER 18.5 Points (-110 at DraftKings)
Harris has gone over this number in three of his last five games, and most recently stopped at 18 in the loss to Washington. The Sixers don’t win without a 20-point performance from Harris tonight, which should be easier than normal given the Mavs' injuries. They are weaker on the wing and have one less post presence to limit drives. Harris is in the perfect position to thrive.
Dorian Finney-Smith OVER 10.5 Points (-110 at DraftKings)
“DFS” is going to have an increase in minutes and usage tonight as the Mavs are down two of their top four scorers. Finney-Smith is getting plenty of volume, he just wasn’t making shots. Five attempts from three last game and six the game before, as he’s taking more shots from the field. He played 43 minutes in the OKC loss and 39 minutes at Orlando before that game. Plenty of minutes, volume, and opportunity.
Joel Embiid 2+ Made Threes (+310 at FanDuel)
Embiid is struggling from behind the arc but it’s not for a lack of trying. He comes off an 0-3 night against Washington but took five attempts in each of his prior two games. That’s the number we want to see to be comfortable with him hitting at least two, but his struggles allow us to get a great number on the bet. This should be somewhere around +250-275, but because of his inconsistencies, we see a far better price. No Porzingis and more Maxi Kleber means Embiid could live on the three-line and kill Dallas.
Will Ben Simmons be traded before the deadline?
• Yes +110
• No -150
Ben Simmons Next Team if Traded:
• Kings 3/1
• Blazers 7/2
• Hawks 4/1
• Cavs 9/2
Nothing has publicly changed with these odds because nothing has publicly come out about any trade. The only thing we’ve seen on this front is Simmons blaming the world for his issues through Ramona Shelburne. It’s getting more and more likely that Daryl Morey is going to make a mistake and not trade Simmons this season. I still hold out hope and would still take the plus-money on a “yes” bet.
Like last week, we still like the Blazers as the best logical destination. That’s also assuming the deal gets done. Bradley Beal is the wildcard here, but even that looks closer to an offseason deal rather than pre-deadline. It might be worth looking at the Wizards only if there’s a report to attach on the bet, otherwise I’m sticking with a Blazers team that’s way too guard-heavy.
Take “Yes” at +110 and the Blazers at 7/2 as a trade destination – just like last week.
| 1/28 | Current |
| Joel Embiid (+270) | Joel Embiid (+230) |
| G. Antetokounmpo (+300) | Nikola Jokic (+330) |
| Steph Curry (+400) | G. Antetokounmpo (+360) |
| Steph Curry (+450) |
We see some minor movement but it’s going in the wrong direction for Embiid’s value (unless you already bet on him). He remains the favorite, but a couple of things happened since last week that further help his case. First, both Giannis and Steph took a little hit – which is the market reacting to both players having some off nights. Embiid missed Monday against Memphis and didn’t put up 30+ against Washington, yet still increased his chances. The second big factor is that Jokic is the second favorite, which is great because the writers will likely not give it to him two years in a row, especially with Embiid playing this well.
You lost 40 points of value in one week so I’m not quite sure why you are still waiting. Take Embiid to win the MVP.
| 1/28 | Current |
| Nets (+135) | Nets (+135) |
| Bucks (+300) | Bucks (+300) |
| Heat (+550) | Heat (+550) |
| 76ers (+1000) | 76ers (+900) |
We should note that nothing has changed with the top four options outside of the Sixers losing 100 points of value. This could be a combination of confidence money coming on the Sixers, the belief in a “soft tank” for the Nets, and a trade coming down with Simmons. You didn’t lose enough to not play the Sixers, but this is predicated on a trade more than anything else. Philadelphia won’t win the East without more help.
I still like a half-unit on the Sixers at +900 to win the East only because I believe in a trade.
| 1/28 | Current |
| Nets (-165) | 76ers (-120) |
| 76ers (+145) | Nets (+135) |
The value is gone here for the Sixers to win the division. They are outplaying expectations and the Nets are still without Kevin Durant. Brooklyn doesn’t want to win the division so long as Kyire Irving isn’t vaccinated, so we should continue to see the Sixers lose value as they lock up the Atlantic. This is why we give you futures odds to show you when to jump in and explain how value is gone. Outside of a major losing streak for the Sixers, it seems like we missed the window moving forward.
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