March 27, 2025

What happens if the Sixers tie the Brooklyn Nets in the NBA Draft Lottery standings?

The Sixers and Brooklyn Nets have been equally matched in their tanking efforts thus far. A protocol many do not know about would ensue if they finish the season with identical records.

By Adam Aaronson
PhillyVoice Staff

David Banks/Imagn Images

The NBA Draft Lottery on May 12 will be the most important event of the 2024-25 Sixers season.

The most crucial storyline between now and the end of the Sixers' regular season on April 13 has nothing to do with actual basketball. With the team attempting to safeguard its top-six protected first-round pick and prevent it from belonging to the Oklahoma City Thunder, suddenly a lot of folks around these parts are beginning to learn about the NBA's new drawing system for its Draft Lottery.

If you are a frequent reader of our Sixers coverage here at PhillyVoice, you have seen this table, detailing the Sixers' chances of keeping their pick by having it land in the top six based on possible lottery positions, more times than you can count:

Lottery position	Chance of keeping pick
1	100.0%
2	100.0%
3	93.0%
4	81.1%
5	64.0%
6	45.8%
7	31.9%
8	26.3%
9	20.2%
10	13.9%
11	9.4%
12	7.1%
13	4.7%
14	2.4%

While the Toronto Raptors still loom as theoretical threats, the Sixers are mostly focused on outpacing the Brooklyn Nets in losses between now and the end of the season. However, the two Atlantic Division rivals have been deadlocked with the same record for much of the last few weeks.

And that is why the table above does not quite tell the entire story. Those are merely the base odds, which assume there are no ties in the lottery standings. And contrary to popular belief, in the lottery ties are not broken by season series outcome. In fact, the ties are barely broken at all. What exactly is going to happen if the Sixers and Nets finish the season tied for the fifth-worst record in the NBA?

MORE: Predicting Sixers' team and player option decisions

In the NBA's current lottery system, each team is allotted a certain number of ping pong balls, depending on their record (worst teams get the most, best teams get the fewest). The league draws its lottery for the first four picks, and each team's number of ping pong balls determines its chances of landing each pick in the top four. Once the lottery has been drawn for those picks, Nos. 5-14 are awarded from worst record to best record among the remaining teams.

So, if there is a tie in the No. 5 spot, who gets more ping pong balls? What takes place is called a "random drawing," but would essentially be a coin flip. The winner of the random drawing will pick before the loser if neither team jumps into the top four. Meanwhile, all of the ping pong balls given to the teams in the No. 5 and No. 6 slots are split evenly among those two teams, effectively giving them the same chance of nabbing a top-four pick (though any odd remainder is given to the winner of the random drawing, which in this case would provide a minuscule advantage.

Courtesy of our friend Tankathon, these would be the Sixers' odds of landing with each possible draft pick if they tie with Brooklyn for the No. 5 slot and win the random drawing:

Draft pick	Percentage change
1	9.8%
2	9.9%
3	10.0%
4	10.1%
5	2.2%
6	20.1%
7	27.9%
8	9.2%
9	0.7%

And, here is what those numbers look like if the Sixers tie with Brooklyn for the No. 5 slot and lose the random drawing:

Draft pick	Percentage chance
1	9.7%
2	9.8%
3	10.0%
4	10.1%
5	0.0%
6	8.1%
7	28.5%
8	20.0%
9	3.6%
10	0.1%

The key differentiator here is not the superior odds of landing a top-four pick, but the fact that if neither team lands a top-four pick, the winner of the random drawing automatically slots in before the loser. One would think a tie with Brooklyn might mean the Sixers find themselves in a middle ground of sorts between their odds of landing in the top-six from the No. 5 slot and the No. 6 slot. But the random drawing will land them extremely close to one of those percentages.

If the Sixers stay ahead of Toronto in the lottery standings, the worst they can do is finish at No. 6, where keeping their pick is close to a 50/50 proposition. But it could grow to nearly a 2-in-3 bet if they surpass Brooklyn and take control of No. 5. If a random drawing takes place, they will end up just a bit higher than the base odds at No. 6 if they lose or just a bit lower than the base odds at No. 5 if they win. Here is the breakdown you have actually been waiting for: