March 25, 2025
The day is Tuesday, which means the time has come for another Sixers mailbag. Per the usual, all questions were submitted by readers and followers on Bluesky. Follow me over there if you have not done so already.
From @justdarkside.bsky.social: What do you think the roster will look like in three years? Will Joel Embiid still be here, or do you think Daryl Morey et al. move on due to declining health and production (availability/playoff result history)?
There are many reasons why, in a vacuum, one could be led to believe Embiid will depart Philadelphia soon. He just turned 31 years old and it feels as if the window in which the team can seriously contend with him at the center of it all is shutting quickly due to availability concerns and a decline in performance as a result of constant knee issues. The Sixers have a younger core elsewhere, as Tyrese Maxey and Quentin Grimes are 24 years old, Jared McCain and Justin Edwards are 21 years old and the team could soon be adding a top-six first-round pick. It is not as if this entire thing is rudderless in the years ahead.
So, you can begin to sell yourself on Embiid eventually being moved. And then you remember the $248 million elephant in the room:
Joel Embiid's contract after this season (2026-2029 salaries estimated based on cap projections):
— Adam Aaronson (@SixersAdam) February 28, 2025
- 2025-26 (age 31/32): $55,224,526
- 2026-27 (age 32/33): $59,539,200
- 2027-28 (age 33/34): $64,302,336
- 2028-29 (age 34/35): $69,065,472 (player option)
4 years, $248,131,534.
By all indications regarding his health, Embiid is no longer suitable to be the centerpiece of an organization. But he will be paid like one for the next four seasons after this one. So if nothing changes in a significant manner regarding his long-term medical outlook, it is difficult to ever fathom another team playing ball on a trade. So, if I had to guess, Embiid will still be here in three years.
Since the 2024-25 season is about to end, let's say that three years means the beginning of the 2027-28 season. Embiid and Maxey are the only two players with guaranteed contracts in that season, though Paul George has a player option worth $56.5 million for what will be his age-37 season -- it is safe to assume for now he will be picking that up. Otherwise, the Sixers have team options for that season for the fourth years of their 2024 draft picks, McCain and Adem Bona.
McCain feels like the absolute safest bet to be on this team in 2027-28 because of his clear upward trajectory and the fact that his rookie contract will not have expired yet. If things go according to plan, McCain will ink an expensive contract extension before the start of the season. Then there is Grimes, who will become a restricted free agent this season in a market that clearly favors the Sixers. It is hard to believe he will sign a short-term contract this summer, which makes him another strong bet to be around in three years from now (barring a trade).
Maxey may be the safest non-McCain bet because of his current contract and overall stability as a player and asset. But there have been very good players traded in their mid-20s before for all sorts of reasons.
MORE: March Madness stars Sixers fans should watch
From @jake-murphy.bsky.social: What grade do you give Morey for the last calendar year?
It is difficult to say, because the Sixers' President of Basketball Operations handed out over $400 million of bad money between the Embiid extension and George contract, which were by far the two most consequential decisions made by the organization in the last 12 months. Many will rush to give him an F, and it is entirely understandable: this combination of albatross deals could set the organization back for years to come. But there are potential lifelines on board, and Morey is responsible for those, too.
While Morey completely whiffed on his two most important swings of the year, he hit for extra bases if not leaving the yard on just about every other call he made. Drafting McCain at No. 16 was brilliant. Trading Caleb Martin in a down season for Grimes and a premium second-round pick is an obvious home run. So was signing Guerschon Yabusele on a veteran's minimum contract. Even finding Justin Edwards as an undrafted free agent, inking him to a two-way and eventually converting him to a standard contract was great business for Morey and the Sixers.
Aside from the Embiid and George contracts, the only thing Morey certifiably botched this season was putting too much faith in aging veterans. Signing all three of Kyle Lowry, Eric Gordon and Reggie Jackson turned out to be disastrous, and Morey basically admitted as much after trading Jackson away at the deadline in an effort to get younger, but they were all also minimum deals that are not exactly going to hamstring the organization.
I landed on C-, an unflattering but passing grade. It is hard to fathom giving such a low grade to an executive with so many strong moves, but it is also hard to fathom giving such a favorable grade to one with the Embiid and George contracts at the top of their list.
MORE: Why was George's season so disappointing; could he be traded?
From @yduker.bsky.social: Assuming McCain is healthy and Grimes returns, how do you see the 96 guard minutes being apportioned?
Maxey will always be in line to lead this team in minutes, not just because of his stellar ability but his phenomenal endurance and the optionality he provides units offensively. Sixers head coach Nick Nurse is one of the most aggressive in the NBA in terms of handing out heavy minutes to his star players, which often lands Maxey in between 35 and 40 minutes on a nightly basis. A more traditional coach would still be inclined to ride Maxey, to be fair, but 35 minutes might be a more realistic number if the Sixers had someone new calling the shots.
Let’s say Maxey is at 36 minutes, which takes up a significant chunk of the available guard minutes. My best guess at this juncture is that Grimes starts alongside Maxey with McCain coming off the bench, which is just the most natural fit from a positional perspective and makes it easier to stagger the minutes of Maxey and McCain as the team’s two primary ball-handlers. If we pencil Grimes in for 32 minutes and McCain for 28, those two and Maxey would be able to occupy all 96 minutes.
If McCain settles into a more traditional bench role where he is closer to 24 minutes and/or Grimes proves to be more effective in the ballpark of 28 minutes, it opens up a small window for either a fourth guard to enter the rotation or for the Sixers to, for a quick spurt in each half, run a lineup featuring a wing-sized player at shooting guard and playing with some additional size and physicality (Nurse has liked to do this with Kelly Oubre Jr., who would be a logical fit in these lineups if he ends up returning).
While the commonly-held concerns about the Sixers’ three most valuable young players all being guards are valid in certain respects — particularly the doubts about Maxey and McCain’s ability to coexist defensively as two smaller guards — it is also valuable for a reason like this. The Sixers could very well have two entire positions covered by just three players, which grants them additional opportunities to bolster depth elsewhere. It is a good problem to have
MORE: Ricky Council IV can decide his Sixers fate with strong finish to season
Follow Adam on Twitter: @SixersAdam
Follow PhillyVoice on Twitter: @thephillyvoice
