March 30, 2025
Kyle Ross/Imagn Images
Jared Butler believes he is a much better three-point shooter than his NBA track record indicates.
As the weekend wraps up — with another Sixers game still to come in the evening against the Toronto Raptors — let's dive into a batch of Sixers-centric numbers in another edition of Sunday stats. I promise, we will discuss both basketball and ping pong balls.
The number of three-point shots made by Jared Butler over his last three games.
Perhaps the biggest point of emphasis for Butler since joining the Sixers at the trade deadline — with plenty of encouragement from Sixers head coach Nick Nurse — is to become a more aggressive three-point shooter.
"These teams are going under on these ball screens," Nurse said earlier this month. "If they go under, you’ve got to pull, you’ve got to keep them honest. So I would expect his volume to continue to go up. He is a good shooter, though. He's got great mechanics, shoots a really high percentage during the day and training, before and after [team activities], like, really high-percentage shooter. Got to translate that to the games."
Butler has taken plenty of shots he might not have been used to taking at the NBA level prior to joining his fourth organization in as many years. There have been ebbs and flows, but the overall results have largely been encouraging, even despite a 2-for-15 slump during the Sixers' road trip.
Butler shot 4-for-4 from beyond the arc during Saturday's loss to Miami, finishing the game with 19 points — his second-highest total as a Sixer:
Jared Butler knocked down all four of his three-point attempts against Miami on Sunday.
— Adam Aaronson's clips (@SixersAdamClips) March 30, 2025
Butler is now 11-18 from beyond the arc in his last three games. In the month of March, he has shot 37.1 percent from three-point range on 4.7 attempts per game. pic.twitter.com/Lt4xL8RawD
While Butler has acknowledged the results have often been absent for him as a three-point shooter in the NBA, he has never felt like a bad shooter.
"As a shooter, it's so funny, playing basketball for however many years, like, I've always been able to shoot the ball," Butler said after Saturday's game. "A lot of times [one must] give it time, give it patience, and I'm glad it's falling, knocking down, and just keep going with it."
Butler is right: his form looks excellent, he has always been very good from the free throw line and can easily knock down mid-range jumpers. It has never made a ton of sense that he is not believed to be a threat from three-point range. The follow-up question, then, was obvious: is it difficult not to get in your own head about flukey struggles?
Before the question has even been said in completion, Butler smiles, nods and begins to elaborate.
"Yeah, I'm in my room, in the shower, like, stressed out," Butler said.
How does he get past it?
"Well, the thing I say is, 'It's not going to get better unless I shoot more.' So I can't not shoot anymore, or else my shooting percentage is going to be what it is. That's the mindset that's helped overcome it."
The number of alley-oop connections between Butler and Adem Bona on Saturday night.
Butler did not just shoot and score the ball effectively against Miami, he also collected a season-high 10 assists to notch his first double-double as a Sixer. His first and penultimate assists both came on alley-oops to Bona, the rookie center whose athleticism is only outpaced by his motor.
Before being traded to the Sixers, many of Butler's assists as a member of the Washington Wizards came as an alley-oop passer, but for the first many weeks of his Sixers tenure he rarely shared the floor with lob threats. Bona has always been a proficient alley-oop finisher, but for much of the season has not gotten tons of looks when he rolls to the rim.
Butler and Bona creating some useful two-man chemistry out of the pick-and-roll felt inevitable, and it is finally coming to fruition:
Jared Butler connected with Adem Bona on two alley-oops in Saturday night's game vs. Miami: https://t.co/35HqRgkkBe pic.twitter.com/4D85X4clpv
— Adam Aaronson's clips (@SixersAdamClips) March 30, 2025
"I think it's long overdue," Butler said. "I feel like we haven't had too much opportunity to play together, but I think that's something that could be really special."
Butler and Bona were each asked if they feel playing with the other and creating the alley-oop potential unlocks additional dimensions of their games. They each gave positive and emphatic responses, and Butler's turned into an explanation of how all five players on the court are aided when someone like Bona aggressively rolls to the rim.
"Sometimes bigs don't understand how important and how valuable rolling is," Butler said. "It helps everybody on the team and a simple roll hard to the rim gets guys open, gets guys shots. They might not know, or they might not get the shot, but it adds value to the team."
MORE: Will Joel Embiid be on the Sixers in three years from now?
The Sixers' chances of finishing the season in the No. 5 slot of the NBA Draft Lottery, according to basketball-reference.
A massive development for the Sixers' tanking efforts on Saturday night: as their loss to the Heat was nearing becoming official, the Brooklyn Nets beat the Washington Wizards on a game-winning, goaltending-included basket from former college basketball star Drew Timme in his second NBA game. This officially put the Sixers on their own in the No. 5 slot in the lottery, with the Nets having one more win. If the Sixers lose out, they would be guaranteed to have at least a 64 percent chance of keeping their top-six protected first-round pick.
Every day, basketball-reference runs 10,000 simulations of the remainder of the season and playoffs, then updates its odds. And now, the Sixers are in strong position to maximize their odds of keeping that pick in the top six and preventing it from conveying to the Oklahoma City Thunder. For the Sixers to control their own destiny to finish alone in the No. 5 slot — which would eliminate the possibility of a "random drawing," which would take place in the event of a tie between the Sixers and Nets — is extremely significant.
| Lottery position | Chance of keeping pick |
| 5 | 64.0% |
| T5, win random drawing | 62.2% |
| T5, lose random drawing | 47.7% |
| 6 | 45.8% |
| 7 | 31.9% |
Speaking of that...
The Sixers' chances of keeping their top-six protected first-round pick, according to basketball-reference.
For each one of basketball-reference's simulations, there is an accompanying lottery simulation. And just over 56 percent of the time, the Sixers held onto their pick. Here was the complete distribution:
| Draft Spot | Odds |
| 1 | 9.9% |
| 2 | 9.9% |
| 3 | 10.1% |
| 4 | 10.1% |
| 5 | 1.3% |
| 6 | 14.8% |
| 7 | 27.8% |
| 8 | 13.9% |
| 9 | 2.0% |
| 10 | 0.1% |
This year's lottery will take place in six weeks from Monday. It will be held in Chicago during the early days of the NBA Draft Combine. It is almost difficult to comprehend just how meaningful these ping pong balls will be for the long-term health of the Sixers organization on May 12.
MORE: Predicting Sixers' option decisions, including Butler, Kelly Oubre Jr., Justin Edwards
Follow Adam on Twitter: @SixersAdam
Follow PhillyVoice on Twitter: @thephillyvoice
