September 29, 2024
Bill Streicher/Imagn Images
How will former NBA MVP Joel Embiid respond to the enormous amount of pressure he is under as the centerpiece of a new-look Sixers team?
Welcome to our Sixers player preview series! Between now and Sixers Media Day on Sep. 30, we will preview each one of the 14 players on the team's standard roster, posing two critical questions that will help determine their fate in 2024-25 before making a prediction about the player's season to come.
Last but certainly not least, we have Joel Embiid, the former NBA MVP and current centerpiece of the Sixers who recently inked a massive three-year contract extension that ties him to the organization for the next half-decade. Embiid is 30 years old (he will turn 31 in March), and time is running out for him to escape his reputation as someone who fails to get the job done when the lights are brightest. What should we watch for as one of the most polarizing players in the NBA enters a make-or-break season?
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This is the be-all and end-all for Embiid: how can the Sixers manage to win enough regular season games on his shoulders while also delivering their franchise cornerstone to the playoffs in good condition? Year after year, Embiid has been hobbled when the lights are brightest, which has been a major factor in the Sixers' continued failures to make deep runs.
Embiid has won an MVP trophy and established that when healthy, he is one of the two or three most dominant basketball players in the world. No amount of individual awards or accolades will change the way people perceive Embiid; the only thing he can do to change the minds of his many detractors is power the Sixers to significant team success. And the only path to achieving that goal is to enter the playoffs at full health — and with enough gas left in the tank to not just remain available for two more months, but be dominant on the floor during that time.
NBA players must log at least 65 regular season appearances to qualify for season-long awards. Injuries limited Embiid to 39 games in 2023-24, but he played 66 and 68 games in the two prior seasons. After last year's catastrophe, it is hard to imagine the Sixers aiming to have Embiid play 65 or more games. After much deliberation, I landed on somewhere between 55 and 60 being an appropriate number, including Embiid routinely sitting out for halves of the team's back-to-backs.
MORE: Everything you need to know about the 2024-25 Sixers schedule
Embiid has — perhaps infamously — always strived to play in as many games as he can, likely in part to shed the injury-prone stigma that has long plagued him. It is crucial that Embiid either eases up this time around — after yet another heavy workload led to a significant injury and an injury-riddled playoff run — or that the team attempts to put its foot down. Embiid playing 70 games and entering the playoffs healthy and ready to go is a dream scenario, not a realistic one.
It would also go a long way if, when Embiid is on the floor, his minutes are less taxing from a physical perspective. The Sixers already take drastic measures to limit his responsibilities on the defensive end of the floor as far as moving around the floor. The Sixers rarely ask Embiid to switch onto the perimeter and often invert defensive assignments when facing a stretch five so Embiid can stay closer to the rim. Embiid is perfectly capable of moving his feet on the perimeter — he does it much better than the vast majority of like-sized players — but stopping short of asking him to utilize that tool helps keep his legs fresh.
The next step could be to lessen Embiid's offensive workload. Not only does he take an enormous amount of shots, and not only does he have an exorbitant usage rate every single year, but much of Embiid's scoring dominance is predicated upon drawing fouls — and that means absorbing and playing through as much contact and physicality as any player in the NBA.
For the first time in Embiid's career, he is playing alongside two no-doubt-about-it All-Star-caliber scorers who can put the ball in the basket from anywhere on the floor. Tyrese Maxey is ascending after his first career All-Star nod last season; last year's Most Improved Player in the NBA averaged a career-high 25.9 points per game in his fourth NBA season. Meanwhile, newcomer Paul George has nine All-Star appearances to his name — and has not played a full season without averaging over 21 points per game in over a decade.
In 2021-22, Embiid averaged 30.6 points per game, becoming the first center in more than 20 years to win the scoring title. He won his MVP by blossoming into a 33.1-point-per-game scorer in 2022-23, and finished a shortened season last year at 34.7 points per game. During this three-year period, he averaged 32.5 points per game across 173 contests, also averaging 20.3 shot attempts and 11.7 free throw attempts per game.
With Embiid likely putting an emphasis on pacing himself in 2024-25, having Maxey and George around to assume some of his gargantuan offensive responsibility will be a major help.
Embiid will not suffer any major injuries during the season as the Sixers are diligent about protecting his health. He will remain an elite scorer, but his points per game average will be lower than it was in each of the last two seasons.
As I put together this series, for most players I focused on predictions pertaining to their performances in the regular season. But the fact of the matter is that so little of Embiid does between the months of October and mid-April will actually matter. In fact, the most likely scenario in which it does matter is if a heavy workload derails his health and sabotages his chances of making it through a playoff run healthy... again.
But we should not lose sight of just how dominant of a regular season player Embiid is. He is the most effective scorer in the NBA during that time, and has learned to leverage that into becoming a high-caliber playmaker for others. He is a monstrous defensive presence at the rim, one of the greatest floor-raisers in recent league history.
It has been said time and time again, though: no amount of additional regular season mastery will change the way Embiid is viewed in the basketball world. He has to will the Sixers to get it done in the playoffs — and there is no time like the present.
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