November 18, 2016
Happy Saturday, y’all. I decided to wait an extra day for this week’s Sixers mailbag, and because it just so happened to run long after a couple of questions, the post is capped at two subjects. Let’s just say I had some thoughts.
I like the contrast that Nik Stauskas and Robert Covington provide, a couple of wings having polar opposite starts to their respective seasons. Stauskas came in with low expectations and is lighting it up offensively while still struggling on the other end of the floor. Covington had higher expectations, and he has been brutal offensively while very solid defensively.
Perception is everything, though, and because there wasn’t much expected of Stauskas, people are largely focusing on the positives with him. The opposite is true of Covington.
That, and offense has always been sexier than defense, even if the latter is still half of the game. Let’s get to it:
@rich_hofmann Has Stauskas earned some more minutes and touches? Really impressed by his recent play? What do you think longterm of him?
— Phil (@PhilCostanzo) November 18, 2016
@rich_hofmann is stauskas for real and will Simmons and Embiid being on the floor together turn him into a starting caliber 2?
— kevin (@KevinValdez_) November 18, 2016
Before the season, I was pretty pessimistic about Sauce’s prospects moving forward. And that wasn’t an unpopular opinion at all, because through two seasons, the No. 8 overall pick in 2014 was shipped out for cap space by his original team (albeit in a trade that was absurd the moment it was called into the league) and struggled again in the NBA’s land of opportunity for fringe players here in Philly.
The problem was that Stauskas simply didn’t make enough shots. His scoring efficiency was below average, which is pretty much a non-starter for someone with his defensive limitations. After a shaky preseason, I thought there was a chance he might be going by Salsa de Castillo overseas this time next year.
Then at the beginning of the season, the Sixers picked up his fourth-year option (2017-18 season) for $3.8 million. And all of a sudden, Nik rocks.
There is no way to possibly downplay his start, even after the qualifier that it only has been 287 minutes: Stauskas has not just been above average as a shooter/scorer, he’s been excellent.
That screen shot, via Basketball Reference, shows the top true shooting percentages of NBA players who have logged over 150 minutes on the young season. Stauskas, who has played 287 minutes, is 11th overall. Ahead of him are five centers that almost exclusively rely on easy looks their teammates create, two of the league’s best three players that just so happen to be on the same team, and then also three other randos off to red-hot starts.
It’s not like Stauskas has copied the old Michigan playbook, either. The 23-year-old shooting guard is currently sniping 40 percent from three, a major improvement over his first two seasons but also something he was always more than capable of in theory. Stauskas shot 44 percent from deep in college on a million (approx.) attempts.
It’s actually the two-point field goals where Stauskas has improved by leaps and bounds. He shot 41 percent from inside the arc as a rookie, 47 percent last season, and is up all the way 64 percent this season. Let’s take a look at his shot charts from the last two seasons:
Specifically, look at what Sauce has been shooting at the rim. Stauskas always rarely settled for mid-rangers (which is good), but now he’s getting to the rim more often and also finishing at a higher rate. He has always been a pretty good leaper, gifted with what some people would call “sneaky athleticism."
Is that number at the rim sustainable? Probably not, but he’s definitely capable of consistently shooting above 40 percent from deep. Stauskas also still has the worst on-court defensive rating on the team, so he needs to continue work hard to become passable on that end of the floor.
It’s still early, but could Stauskas turn into a rotation player on a good team with solid defenders in need of some floor spacing (and maybe down the road, secondary playmaking), possibly the Sixers? Yep, it’s definitely in play if he can generally keep this up.
So far, Stauskas is proving me and other skeptics wrong.
@rich_hofmann Are the Sixers ever going to win a basketball?
— DutyHead (@IgglesHQ) November 18, 2016
Absolutely. No doubt.
@rich_hofmann What would it take for Brown to bench RoCo?
— Ricky (@ARicky5) November 18, 2016
@rich_hofmann can you reason with people that Covington is still a good shooter?
— Rui Pinto (@ruip29) November 18, 2016
@rich_hofmann What the hell happened to covingtons shot
— ✊🏾 (@embiidsnthetrap) November 18, 2016
That 1-12 performance in Minnesota brought out the RoCo questions, huh? I will admit that it was painful to watch him toss up brick after brick on national television. This was just 24 hours after Covington got pulled in the second half by Brett Brown for arguing with the refs and failing to get back on defense.
Brett was hot!
My opinion on the subject is unchanged: Covington has been absolutely brutal offensively, but Brown has to keep playing him starters’ minutes. The soon-to-be 26-year-old swingman represents the Sixers’ best two-way wing — Again, I didn’t get into Stauskas’ defense above in detail for good reason — and he needs every opportunity to shoot his way out of this slump.
Let’s dig a little bit deeper into that defense:
The top-ranked #sixers player in RPM? Robert Covington at 84th in the league, largely on the back of +1.87 DRPM. 3rd best DRPM among SF's.
— Derek Bodner (@DerekBodnerNBA) November 18, 2016
Like every coach in the history of basketball (OK, maybe not Don Nelson or Mike D’Antoni), Brown talks about wanting his team to start with a defensive identity. That is why he has no choice but to keep playing Covington. Outside of two guys who barely played this season in Jerami Grant and Timothé Luwawu-Cabarrot, the team defends the best with Covington on the floor (104.8 points per 100 possessions, per NBA.com). Yep, he has even eked ahead of Joel Embiid in that category.
By the same token, the team defends the worst when which player leaves the floor? Yep, RoCo again (111.7 per-100). He ranks 11th in the league in steal percentage with those quick hands of his, racking up those numbers without gambling a la (*Insert GOAT emoji here) Allen Iverson.
That is why I don’t believe there is any justification for benching Covington. Can Brown turn to Stauskas or Hollis Thompson if RoCo continues to shoot poorly in a specific game? Sure. Can you stop using the nickname Big Shot Bob? That’s fair.
Trust me, though, you have to keep playing this guy.
Follow Rich on Twitter: @rich_hofmann
