October 25, 2022
"What sort of beat writer goes on a honeymoon the week the season starts?" some of you have decided to ask me over the last week-plus, and to that I say, well, points were made. I pulled the equivalent of a Sixers player getting elective surgery during training camp, which I would roast the team and player for accordingly, so I can hardly protest that anyone would mock me for skipping out on the opening week.
The good news about taking a trip that required a day-plus of travel in each direction is that my route home gave me plenty of time to catch up on all of the games and all the static from the first four games, in addition to an assortment of movies available in-flight. Some quick film takes: it really is a shame that Will Smith's King Richard performance will now forever be associated with his brief moment of madness at the Oscars, and Death on the Nile was a good movie whose mystery I unfortunately solved (or, at least guessed) with far too much time left in the movie. So it goes.
In any case, I had nothing with me to watch and log thoughts on these games except for a notepad and a cell phone, quite a bit different from the multi-monitor setup at home or the in-person experience. These are an assortment of my thoughts on the start of the season, and I look forward to no one caring about them until the Phillies are either eliminated or kings of the baseball world. My only regret from an October honeymoon was missing out on a Broad Street celebration after the NLCS clincher.
• Nothing about this loss changed my prior beliefs about who the Sixers are and what they can be this season. There was a lot made of Boston’s offensive output and Philadelphia’s interior defense — which I would agree wasn’t good or anywhere close to good enough for when it counts — but all told, I thought this game came down to poor decision-making/turnovers and a run of elite shotmaking from Jayson Tatum in the third quarter. Yes, there were definitely easy buckets given up that they simply can’t allow to beat the best of the best, and I am still concerned about their ability to defend teams with multiple athletic wing scorers. But this was essentially an even game outside of a single quarter, and there’s no reason to hit the panic button because the defending East champs played a more complete 48 minutes. Monitor the matchup throughout the season, and we’ll see where this goes.
• The story at the center of this game, and perhaps at the center of Philly’s season, is how much better they looked when they ran purposeful offense and when Embiid made quick reads rather than trying to sledgehammer through the Celtics. I think Al Horford did legitimately give him problems early in this career, but Embiid has become his own worst enemy in this matchup. Horford’s foul trouble bounced him on and off of the floor and didn’t allow him to leave a huge imprint on the game, and many of Embiid’s worst moments were a result of him dribbling into traffic without a plan.
Most of Philadelphia's worst stretches of the game came while trying to force-feed Embiid inside the arc, and with Embiid not looking all that hard for his teammates when doubles came. His half-court decision-making was considerably better in the last quarter and a half or so, with multiple reads out of double teams creating wide-open looks for teammates. If he is focused on winning above all else, he has to play less hero ball and trust his running mates are good enough to deliver when opportunities come their way. The days of trying to constantly dribble through traffic should be dwindling, if not over.
• Philadelphia’s start to the fourth quarter on offense was a great example of what can happen when Embiid commits to being a team-first guy on offense rather than “the guy” all things must run through. He partnered spectacularly with Tyrese Maxey as those two led a bench group, weaving in and out of handoffs and pick and rolls as Maxey took the play-making and scoring lead. Maxey has earned his spot as the team’s fairly clear
• As some/hopefully all of you read in my season predictions, I was dubious of James Harden: bonafide scorer returning this season. On night one, he made my beliefs look silly. Sure, there was some ridiculous shotmaking that papered over bad or slow possessions, but there were also a few occasions where I thought he looked capital-G great against guys who are no joke defending on switches, as when he absolutely dusted Grant Williams for an easy layup at the rim in the second half. Harden catching fire on jumpers doesn’t do much for me because his average shot difficulty is high and will inherently have peaks and valleys. Harden showing legit burst and creating rim pressure is a lot more meaningful, and I thought there were good signs here.
• The Embiid thing that stood out most in this game was not his lack of touch, or lethargic effort on defense, or sloppy turnovers in tight games, though all of those things loomed large. The biggest concern was out in front by quite a bit — he was unable to generate basically any leverage while trying to score the ball. Brook Lopez deserves plenty of credit for making him work and for turning into quite a good defender over time, but many of Embiid’s worst moments came when he allowed Lopez to be the aggressor in the physical battle.
Too many misses, even on misses close to the rim, came with Embiid falling away from the basket and not necessarily by choice. The rest of his issues early in the year are things I think either average out over time or get fixed as he gets in better shape. Allowing the opponent to set the physical terms of a matchup, though, shouldn’t ever happen for him, regardless of whether he’s operating at less than 100 percent. I would rather see him embrace a nightly approach that is slightly riskier with foul trouble and contact than watch him get repeatedly moved off of his spots, leaving him ultimately reliant on tough shot-making.
• Coming out of this game, I have some decent-sized concerns about this team’s ability to succeed in a switch-heavy environment. Becoming less of a strict drop team was a big priority coming into the season, and they look every bit like a team trying to figure that out. In the lineups where they have a group full of guys comfortable in that setting, guys like Danuel House Jr. and De’Anthony Melton and PJ Tucker, they’ve already put together some terrific moments, shooting across gaps and closing space wonderfully.
Not everyone, though, looks as ready to make this change. Tobias Harris’ overhelp on a critical possession ultimately gave Milwaukee the final lead they coveted, and it wasn’t the only time against the Bucks that he cost his teammates by playing too jumpy. It’s also clear that this is an adjustment period for Embiid, who spent periods of this game simply wandering off-ball. On several occasions, one defensive player evidently thought it was time to “x out” switch, only for his peer to stay locked on their pre-existing assignment. A lot to clean up.
• Harden’s midrange game was a massive part of this game. When combined with preseason reps we got a look at, it increasingly looks like a weapon he wants to use rather than something that he’s using as a fallback plan, and I think that will benefit this offense massively if it keeps up. It was obviously a huge part of their comeback in this one, as was the switch to a small-ball group in the fourth quarter that disrupted Milwaukee’s flow. We can even give Harden credit for defensive plays made during the game-changing run in the fourth, with the vet guard fighting hard and forcing a Bucks turnover by himself at one point.
Offensive diversity has been the big early key for Harden if you’re asking me. Yes, he still has the patented step back (which is dropping early), and his success in/around the paint is going to be a huge driver of the team’s offensive success. But as teams try to adjust their coverage of the Harden/Embiid pick-and-roll, hurting teams from in-between areas will give the Sixers more outs when Plan A breaks down.
• There were at least 1-2 absolutely horrendous Embiid turnovers in this game, mirroring an issue from the Celtics game. They have to cut these out ASAP, as these resemble the sort of giveaways the whole team used to make during his early years. He is too good for this kind of nonsense.
• When Embiid is at max conditioning and locked in, he can be a tremendous switch defender against players of all ages and sizes. Right now, though, he’s part of the reason they haven’t looked good while embracing a more switch friendly approach on the defensive end. The issue in this game specifically is Embiid playing with what I thought was heavy, sloppy footwork on close outs — there were a bunch of plays where Embiid either left his feet prematurely or lost his sense of place on the floor, allowing guys to get past him with minimal effort. It didn’t always lead directly to that guy scoring, but it put the Sixers in rotation far too often, and he looked every bit like a guy that doesn’t have his legs under him yet.
• Once again, Philadelphia’s attention to detail on defense was bad, particularly off-ball. You can see a lot of instances where communication is happening, but it’s happening far too late for it to make a positive impact. Guys are yelling and pointing in the direction someone needs to go, but by the time that player gets moving, a shot is already going up or the ballhandler is going past the late-arriving closeout. This group lacks the sharpness of a team that can consistently win games with its defense, which means they need to get themselves together on offense.
• Tyrese Maxey got straight-up picked on late in this game. That’s a separate problem from the other issues, but it’s a problem all the same.
• We’re going on several years of horrible transition defense now, and it doesn’t appear the end is in sight. What’s even more disheartening than poor play on the average transition possession is that this group has sucked (relative to the field) immediately after made shots, which should be the time your defense looks best. The Spurs don’t have an overwhelming amount of talent, to put it nicely, but they frequently took the ball out of the basket and took off running, beating Philly down the floor and scoring easy points to wipe out Philadelphia’s offensive success. Going from an Embiid dunk to an almost immediate Doug McDermott three — a three from someone who they should have been tracking closer in general — had to drive the coaching staff mad.
• Related to the last point, and this is probably better to lump in with the Bucks game — the Sixers have given up too many trail threes in situations where they’ve played four-on-five defensively. Embiid is slower to pick himself off of the floor than many, but he isn’t the only one who has hurt them here, with Harris once again standing out in a negative way defensively.
• I would not recommend watching Sixers games on a phone in a Qatari airport during a 10-hour, overnight layover on little-to-no sleep. A very specific scenario I'm sure few of you will ever go through, but trying to help whoever I can.
• Joel Embiid was not the star of this game or even that close to it, but I thought this was a great example of how they need him to set the tone for the team in terms of unselfishness. Early on against Indiana, Embiid made it clear that he was going to look for cutters and shooters if the Pacers sent extra help, and the Sixers were finding open shots with ease as a result of that policy. When he got into MVP form last season, his scoring was the centerpiece, but it was Embiid’s ability to lift up others that helped set his game apart from seasons prior. As was the case then, Embiid moving the ball away from pressure does not mean giving up his special gifts as a scorer. The opposite is true — when teams can’t play him as a black hole when sending a double becomes prohibitive because he hits an open shooter, the world opens up for him. Low assist count, but I saw meaningful changes from him in this one.
• I’m about ready to take the L on my Harden view entering this season, and we’re just four games into it. Maybe he doesn’t have the burst he had at his absolute apex, but Harden’s functional strength looks worlds better than it did last season. And that has been the key to Harden’s offensive success (alongside supreme skill) throughout his terrific career — he has been a master of scoring through contact, shielding the ball, and dislodging opponents by hitting first, all of which looked much harder for him a season ago.
• Major positive: PJ Tucker only needing to play 20 minutes in this one after being overextended in the first three games. Have to keep an eye on the bigger picture.
That had a lot to do with the performance of the backups vs. Indiana. Mercifully, Philadelphia’s bench finally showed up and showed out for a game, admittedly against a team they should be beating up on. But beggars can’t be choosers, and after watching them struggle to make an impact in the opening trio of games, it was nice to see one guy play well enough to stick with the closing group after starting the game on the bench.
Georges Niang was the first guy to play an impact game off of the bench after we watched him find instant chemistry with James Harden last season. Anytime somebody doubles Harden off of Niang, the former drops a behind-the-back pass right into his shooting pocket on the wing, and more often than not, the ensuing shot is going down. That made up most of Niang’s damage against Indiana, naturally, but this was also one of the better defensive performances I can remember him having in a Sixers uniform. He’s still not an athletic phenom at the four, but he’s moving considerably better than he did toward the end of last season, and he’ll continue to get minutes in a crowded rotation as long as the shot keeps dropping.
• Tobias Harris getting up 10 threes in this game is as important, if not more important, than the fact that he would eventually make four of those shots. We have seen plenty of games where Harris has passed up a gaggle of open looks and stalled the offense out, and the Sixers simply can’t afford to squander quality shots when they get them. He’s shooting over 42 percent from three in their first four games, and getting up 6.5 attempts from deep per game. If both numbers even stay close there, he’ll be providing all they need him to on the offensive end.
• Paul Reed’s enthusiasm is always great, but can’t remember seeing Niang angrier than when Reed fought him for a rebound and gave up a second-chance bucket as a result.
• Tyrese Maxey winning a jump ball against Isaiah Jackson was his most impressive feat of the game during a tough night. Not sure how he managed that.
• Another Sixers-watching experience I wouldn't recommend: while jet-lagged on return from overseas after a 15-hour flight. Not even the powers of a lifelong night owl could save me for this one. Thank goodness they weren't playing out west, I would have simply passed away.
• I made the mistake of checking Twitter while up at weird hours overseas, because they don't teach you how to adjust to a nine-hour time difference that you'll be coming back from in short order. In any case, I get that there's not a lot of love for Doc Rivers around these parts, and I understand that firing a manager had excellent results for the team in the World Series, but every game does not have to be a referendum on the head coach. It is an exhausting way to consume sports. Your skepticism is understood, Rivers' role deserves to be scrutinized, but let's all take a deep breath.
• Despite how little they've scored as a bench group, I am not especially concerned about the play of their backups, or at least the lack of scoring from their backups in the early days of the season. This is a team with some touch-dominating, high-volume stars at the top of the roster, and the bench units are running through Harden, Embiid, and Maxey at basically all times. That doesn't mean they shouldn't be getting production from the rest of the guys, but I don't find it all that revealing to simply put Philadelphia's bench points alongside the opponent's, and I don't think you can use that as a declaration of how good they were or were not.
• Better conditioning for Embiid is going to solve some of their defensive problems, but not all of them. #analysis
• I still believe in the ultimate ceiling of this group, but I'm not feeling as great about my regular season predictions given how they've started. They might get where they need to go, but there's a lot of stuff to work on in the meantime. Not as seamless as I thought it might be.
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