January 13, 2016
Jimmy Kempski/PhillyVoice
Chip's artificially inflated offensive numbers were an illusion in 2014, and they got worse in 2015.
Way back in July, we ran our yearly "NFC East dumpster fire series," in which we listed 10 reasons each of the four NFC East teams could be, you know, a dumpster fire in 2015. Today, we'll take a look back at what we said then, and what actually came to pass. In hindsight, the Eagles' dumpster fire of a season should have been predictable.
To be clear, this is not me spiking the football, saying "I told you so." After all, I was among the dopes who got swept up in the Eagles' tremendous performances in meaningless exhibition games, and thought they were a legitimate contender. I had them losing to the Seahawks in the NFC championship game! Oops.
Here were the 10 reasons the Eagles could fail that we cited in July:
What we said then:
Over the weekend I did some research on Sam Bradford, and it turns out that he tore his ACL. Twice!
After doing some more digging, I learned via several credible sources close to the team that Chip Kelly knew about Bradford's injury history when he traded his existing starting QB, a second round pick and other stuff for Bradford, while taking on his $13 million salary.
Wait... What? Chip knew about this?!?
After my sarcasm, I got to the point.
The concern isn't so much that he'll tear his ACL again. It's more about how effective a player he'll be after having torn his ACL twice.
What happened:
Bradford was downright bad the first half of the season. However, as the season wore on, he began to improve, before getting hurt. Again. When he returned from injury, he played reasonably well (certainly far better than he did early on), but it was not enough to secure a playoff berth in a terrible division, although he didn't get much help from his teammates.
What we said then:
Since Kelly took over in Philly, the Eagles have had very low time of possession numbers because they probably run the fastest-paced offense in NFL history. Kelly couldn't possibly care any less about time of possession, and I don't fault him for that.
However, his fast paced offense leads to incredibly skewed stats on both sides of the ball. For example, the Eagles' basic offensive stats:
| Category | Stat | Rank |
| Yards per game | 396.8 | 5 |
| Points per game | 29.6 | 3 |
| Rush yards per game | 124.5 | 9 |
| Pass yards per game | 272.2 | 6 |
Pretty freaking good, right?
However, the reality is that the offense was not as good in 2014 as it appears on paper. The offense's numbers were helped incredibly by two very important factors:
1) Again, as noted, the fast pace with which they run allow them to run more plays than any team in the league.
2) The special teams units and defense scored 11 touchdowns, which on paper benefits the offense, but distorts the reality of how they actually scored 29.6 points per game.
A much better measure of how efficient the Eagles' offense and defense has played, which factors out their fast-paced offense are "points per drive," and other drive stats.
Offensively, according to Football Outsiders, the Eagles scored 1.98 points per drive, which was good for 13th in the NFL. That is certainly nowhere near as impressive as the basic numbers above would suggest. Other drive stats:
| Offense | Stat | Rank |
| Yards per drive | 31.43 | 14 |
| Points per drive | 1.98 | 13 |
| Turnovers per drive | 0.174 | 32 |
| INT per drive | 0.104 | 28 |
| Fumbles per drive | 0.070 | 29 |
| Plays per drive | 5.79 | 22 |
| T.O.P per drive | 2:07 | 32 |
In short, the Eagles scored a lot of points and racked up a lot of yards in 2014 because they ran a ton of plays, not because they were actually, you know, efficient. In that respect, Chip Kelly is a better illusionist than Jon Dorenbos.
What happened:
The Eagles regressed even further in "per drive stats," finishing 22nd in yards per drive, 23rd in points per drive, and 29th in turnovers per drive. Kelly's offense put his defense in an impossible situation, and the season blew up.
What we said then:
Speaking of those 11 touchdowns the Eagles scored on defense and special teams a year ago... Yeah, that's not happening again.
What happened:
They Eagles tied for the league lead in return touchdowns, with seven. Impressive. Three of them came against the Patriots, which was the only way they were winning that game.
What we said then:
The Eagles gave up the third most 20+ yard pass plays in NFL history in 2014. The immediate and obvious rebuttal to that is to say, "Well yeah, but that was because of Bradley 'Under the Rainbow' Fletcher," who of course is no longer with the team.
What happened:
The Eagles cut down their 20+ yard pass plays allowed down from 72 to 55, which was a positive. However, they gave up 36 passing TDs, which was second most in the NFL.
What we said then:
The Eagles cut the oldest (Evan Mathis) and sixth-oldest (Todd Herremans) projected starting offensive linemen in the NFL, and they still have the third oldest projected starting offensive line in the entire league. That's what will happen when you only draft one offensive lineman in three years. Mathis and Herremans were released, even though the Eagles didn't have much in the way of awesome replacements ready to go after their departures...
It takes a long time for an offensive line to get good at blocking blitz pickups, stunts, twists, etc. The Eagles' offensive linemen will have logged no significant amount of time playing with the guys next to them. That's a problem.
What happened:
The OL largely stunk, mostly in the run game.
What we said then:
As noted above, the Eagles really only have four definitive starters along their OL, with the fifth spot to be determined by hoping someone will step up (as opposed to several decent options battling it out for the job). They are particularly screwed at the tackle positions if they lose Jason Peters or Lane Johnson, seeing as they don't employ a quality reserve "swing tackle."
What happened:
The Eagles did indeed suffer some injuries along their OL, and their backups were exposed.
What we said then:
The Eagles led the NFL in total turnovers, INTs, and fumbles lost in 2014. That's "Triple Crown of Turnover Awfulness."
Some view turnovers as luck-driven. In the case of the 2014 Eagles, that was hardly the case. They got poor QB play for the better part of the season, and their skill position players were careless when they ran with the football. Now, many of those players are now gone or may have different roles in 2015, but the #culture of sloppy football on offense has to change.
What happened:
The Eagles had the third-most giveaways in the NFL, behind only the Titans and Cowboys, who are drafting first and fourth in 2016. The Eagles' turnover #culture did not get better.
What we said then:
If you project Jordan Matthews, Nelson Agholor and Josh Huff to be the Eagles' 1-2-3 trio of wide receiver in 2015 (as I do), the Eagles will have the youngest receiver corps in the NFL. In the long term, that's a great thing. However, in the short term, even with Matthews and Agholor being mature beyond their years, there could be some growing pains with this group.
What happened:
The Eagles had a few drops this season.
What we said then:
Speaking of wide receivers, somehow Riley Cooper is still on the team.
What happened:
Riley sucked again, as expected by literally everybody but the Eagles' coaching staff.
What we said then:
As the great Heath Evans of NFL Network pointed out, the Eagles will always be a bunch of ringless namby pambies until they sign a fullback.
What happened:
Heath nailed it! If the Eagles don't draft a fullback with the 13th overall pick, they should be kicked out of the league.
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