Ranking the value of the Sixers' roster and draft picks

One of my favorite under-the-radar basketball sites is NBA Assets. Run by a few Sixers bloggers, it’s a subjective league-wide and team-specific ranking of players and draft picks. To them, “the value of the asset is determined based off its projected production, contract, projected value, and likelihood of re-signing with given team.”

(And before we go any further, yes, NBA players are human beings, not “assets.” These guys know that. Unique domain names are hard to think up at this stage of the game!)

I pretty much agree with their ranking of the Sixers roster and draft picks, but let’s run through the list and explain why. Then in six months, we can update how things have changed. For this exercise, we’ll only go up to 2019 and pass on the middle schoolers that Sam Hinkie acquired.

Tier 1: The Potential Superstars

1. Joel Embiid
2. Ben Simmons

3. Sixers 2017 1st-Round Pick

Whether we’re judging social media savvy or projected on-court value, the top two are locks.

Embiid has demonstrated the potential of a top-five, “best guy on a title team” type of player… when he is healthy, which hasn’t been often. Type some basic numbers into Basketball Reference’s Play Index tool, and it’s JoJo and bunch of Hall of Famers… who all played three times as many minutes as rookies. Despite this level of dominance, his tenuous hold on the top spot isn’t news to Sixers fans.

Simmons’ foot is less of a concern long-term, but we still haven’t seen the 2016 NBA Draft’s top pick do much since throwing a bunch of dope passes in Las Vegas (besides pissing off the local media!). His jump shot is still a question mark, but if Simmons transitions smoothly to the NBA, a rookie contract that runs three more seasons at $6 to $8 million might help him wrestle the top spot from Embiid.

The Sixers’ first-rounder, which may involve the Sacramento pick swap, could bring in another superstar from the 2017 NBA Draft. It has a 14.7 percent chance of being Markelle Fultz! It also has a 30.1 percent chance of landing at No. 2 or No. 3, which could mean few solid years of BIG BALLER BRAND debates on talk radio that would put Carl Lindros to shame.

So, maybe this pick should be lower?

Tier 2: The Less Certain Draft Picks

4. 2017 Lakers 1st-Round Pick, Top-3 Protected
5. 2019 Kings 1st-Round Pick

Here’s the rationale for going picks over players: The 2017 Lakers pick (top-3 protected this year, unprotected next) and unprotected 2019 Kings pick could very well give the Sixers worse players than Dario Saric and Robert Covington, but they also represent a chance at a superstar or someone who is simply better than The Homie or Rock.

The Lakers pick could be Jayson Tatum, Josh Jackson, or a whole bunch of promising guards and wings this season… or Luka Doncic, Michael Porter, or other top players next year after Magic Johnson *rigs the lottery. The Lakers improving next season and dramatically worsening the pick seems unlikely, but not impossible.

As for the Kings pick, there is more uncertainty even if Sacramento isn’t in a strong position moving forward. But there is a chance we’ll get the chance to make, “For me…” Bagley or Williamson jokes by the time 2019 rolls around.

*The draft lottery isn’t rigged. Well, at least not anymore.

Tier 3: The Definite Rotation Players

6. Dario Saric
7. Robert Covington

Both have proven they belong or will belong in a playoff team’s rotation. The reason that Dario is ranked ahead of RoCo is twofold: He’s more than three years younger and has a contract with three more seasons on the old rookie scale. Covington only has one season left on his deal, and he is due quite the raise from the relative peanuts he’s currently making.

Not too bad for a guy plucked out of the D-League and someone who we were told never was going to come over.

Tier 4: The Wild Cards

8. Sixers 2018 1st-Round Pick
9. Sixers 2019 1st-Round Pick

But not wild cards in the same way as Charlie Kelly cutting the brakes.

It’s hard to forecast where the Sixers are going to finish next year. There’s a non-zero chance they’re back at the top of the lottery, but I wouldn’t bet on it. With the Sixers potentially making any sort of move in free agency, Embiid playing around 60 games, or the young players just generally getting better, the Sixers have a lot of ways to improve on 28 wins. Add in some uncertainty about the 2018 draft class after the top prospects, and this one could really go anywhere.

The same goes for the 2019 first-rounder, which could reasonably be slotted lower.

Tier 5: Young Guys on Good Deals

10.    Richaun Holmes
11.    Timothe Luwawu-Cabarrot
12.    T.J. McConnell

Holmes (a backup center who could start for a few teams) and McConnell (“established himself as a factor,” per Bryan Colangelo) have produced more than TLC, but I’ll take the young Frenchman’s potential and extra year on a rookie deal to edge out the latter.

Speaking of McConnell, I’m pretty tired of everyone raving about Gordon Hayward’s transformation and ignoring what we saw in Philly. “Mr. Clutch” went from the No. 2 clippers all around to this souped-up look.

Tier 6: Everyone Else

13.    Justin Anderson
14.    Furkan Korkmaz
15.    Jahlil Okafor
16.    Nik Stauskas
17.    Gerald Henderson
18.    Jerryd Bayless

At this point, we’re sort of just guessing. Younger players go before vets obviously, but the order could be moved around within this tier. You might argue that some second-round picks (like the Brooklyn pick, which could by No. 31 in next year’s draft) should be ahead of the vets, but I don’t particularly feel like nerding out quite that much.

Tier 7: Second-Rounders

19.    Brooklyn 2018 2nd-Rounder
20.    New York 2017 2nd-Rounder
21.    Dallas 2017 2nd-Rounder
22.    Miami 2017 2nd-Rounder
23.    2019 Better of Milwaukee or Sacramento 2nd-Rounder
24.    2018 Better of Clippers or New York 2nd-Rounder
25.    2019 New York 2nd-Rounder
26.    2018 Sixers 2nd-Rounder
27.    2017 Atlanta 2nd-Rounder
28.    2019 Sixers 2nd-Rounder

Boy, that’s quite a few picks. Did you know the Sixers own the Knicks' second-rounder through 2021? Well, now you do.

Follow Rich on Twitter: @rich_hofmann

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