August 05, 2024
People like getting mad at quarterback rankings, and yet, we all read them anyway. The following is a roundup of where some national folks have Jalen Hurts rated headed into the 2024 season. Also, what the hell, I'll rank the NFL's starting quarterbacks, too. Let's do that first.
1) Patrick Mahomes, Chiefs: Duh.
2) Josh Allen, Bills: Allen is the most physically impressive quarterback in the NFL. He just hasn't gotten much cooperation from his defense at times in games that matter.
3) Joe Burrow, Bengals: Burrow is an accurate gamer with underrated mobility. A lot of people have him No. 2 behind Mahomes, but I think those folks are ignoring that Allen has proven to be much more durable.
4) Lamar Jackson, Ravens: When you win two MVP awards, you're obviously an elite talent, but the lack of postseason success is a significant blemish.
5) C.J. Stroud, Texans: Stroud had one of the best rookie seasons for a quarterback ever. He is already a top five quarterback, in my opinion, with further upside.
6) Justin Herbert, Chargers: Ugh, I hate myself for having Herbert this high, as his obvious talent has not translated to actual team success on the field.
7) Dak Prescott, Cowboys: Prescott led the NFL in INTs in 2022, then finished second in MVP voting in 2023. He's up and down from season to season, but the Cowboys would be screwed without him.
8) Jalen Hurts, Eagles: Hurts was arguably the best player on the field in the Super Bowl following the 2022 season, but he was part of the problem during the Eagles' epic 2023 collapse. He must perform in 2024, especially while playing in an offense with an elite offensive line and one of the best wide receiver duos in the NFL.
9) Matthew Stafford, Rams: Including the playoffs the last three seasons, the Rams are 28-18 with a Super Bowl when Stafford plays. They're 2-7 (excluding a meaningless Week 18 "resting starters" game in 2023) without him.
10) Tua Tagovailoa, Dolphins: Tagovailoa started all 17 games in 2023, which is something to build on, but I still question his durability. When healthy, he's as accurate as any passer in the NFL.
11) Jordan Love, Packers: Love's hype is a little overdone for me. There were moments in 2023 when he looked like prime Aaron Rodgers, which understandably has people excited, but he must become more consistent.
12) Jared Goff, Lions: Goff has had the benefit of running innovative offenses under Sean McVay and Ben Johnson. He is a good game manager, but he does not have the pure physical ability that many of the quarterbacks above possess.
13) Trevor Lawrence, Jaguars: Lawrence has all the tools, but his career reminds me of the line from Moneyball where Billy Beane says, "If he’s such a good hitter, why doesn’t he hit good?"
14) Brock Purdy, 49ers: If Purdy were special the Niners would have rings.
15) Kirk Cousins, Falcons: The consummate purgatory quarterback joins the consummate purgatory team. They then immediately drafted his replacement.
16) Aaron Rodgers, Jets: Once-elite quarterback turned attention-desperate conspiracy theorist weirdo with too much influence over front office decisions.
17) Jayden Daniels, Commanders: I don't know if he'll be good Week 1, but I do think that by the end of the season Commanders fans are rightfully going to be very excited for their team's future with this kid.
18) Anthony Richardson, Colts: His physical skills were obvious as a rookie, but he has to learn how to better protect himself from big hits.
19) Caleb Williams, Bears: The Bears have surrounded Williams with very good receivers and an improved offensive line.
20) Baker Mayfield, Buccaneers: Former No. 1 overall pick who has rebuilt himself as a gritty gamer. Entertaining but probably not ideal.
21) Geno Smith, Seahawks: Geno is hipster favorite among some evaluator wannabes and he's a cromulent enough veteran quarterback, but he's hardly a guy anyone should aspire to build around.
22) Kyler Murray, Cardinals: Murray is talented, but there are some pretty obvious leadership concerns.
23) Will Levis, Titans: Levis has Josh Allen-like physical attributes, but will need time to develop.
24) Bryce Young, Panthers: It's hard to imagine many quarterbacks performing well with the junk the Panthers have surrounded him with, but also it's hard to get past just how tiny he looks out there.
25) Bo Nix, Broncos: Nix played in 61 games in college, so he comes into the NFL with plenty of experience. Concerning if he can't beat out speedbump Jarrett Stidham for a starting job.
26) Russell Wilson, Steelers: I wouldn't completely rule out a bounce-back season, but it's probably more likely that he's washed, and he still has to win the QB1 job in Pittsburgh.
27) Derek Carr, Saints: Average talent, and his teammates didn't seem to care much for him last season.
28) Aidan O'Connell, Raiders: I'm not sure I've seen O'Connell play a single NFL snap or not (I probably have, but it was simply not memorable?), but I'll take him blindly over the guys below him on this list.
29) Daniel Jones, Giants: He was never a good passing quarterback, and now his ACL recovery will hamper his running ability.
30) Sam Darnold, Vikings: Bridge quarterback to J.J. McCarthy.
31) Jacoby Brissett, Patriots: Bridge quarterback to Drake Maye.
32) Deshaun Watson, Browns: Unremorseful serial sexual predator.
The methodology:
Voters gave us their best 10 players at a position, then we compiled the results and ranked candidates based on number of top-10 votes, composite average and dozens of interviews, with research and film study help from ESPN NFL analyst Matt Bowen. In total, nearly 80 voters submitted a ballot on at least one position, and in many cases all positions. Additional voting and follow-up calls with those surveyed helped us break any ties.
Hurts did not make the top 10. He was listed third in the "honorable mention" section, which maybe means that he scored 13th in this exercise?
After a Year 3 star turn that garnered a Super Bowl appearance and a $255 million contract, Hurts' play dipped in 2023. His QBR ranking fell from fourth (68.3) to 12th (60.1). His 15 interceptions were so uncharacteristic that the total nearly matched that of his first three years combined (18). A knee injury that he tried his best to manage clearly affected him, according to several evaluators.
"He was playing hurt," an NFC executive said. "The Eagles tried to downplay that, but he didn't look right. He wasn't the same runner he was in the past, and passing the ball was tough for him." Added an AFC scout: "He'll always be in that 7-12 range, depending on how productive he is each year."
Also of note: The Eagles' offense "became stale" as a whole, according to a high-ranking NFL team official, and the predictable offensive attack affected Hurts' stock.
#JimmySays: Hurts injured his knee against the Dolphins Week 7. That's not a great excuse for his shaky play during the Eagles' late season collapse, in my opinion, as Hurts and the offense in general had no answers for the blitz. But a healthy Hurts with a clean slate will have a chance to put the 2023 season behind him.
It was a roller coaster of a year for Hurts, who set career highs in passing yards, touchdowns and big-time throws, but also career highs in interceptions and lost fumbles. It was his third consecutive season of at least 10 rushing touchdowns, while he also led the position in rushing first downs.
It also just didn’t look like Hurts was fully healthy for a lot of the 2023 campaign. He wasn’t the same rushing threat overall, with lower missed tackles forced, yards per attempt and explosive run (20 yards or more) figures. It wasn’t as efficient or explosive a season as his 2022, but Hurts remains a constant threat from the position.
#JimmySays: "Career high in big-time throws," lol.
In a tumultuous 2023 Eagles season, not even the notoriously even-keeled Hurts was immune to mercurial spurts. But his setup remains elite, as does his penchant for clutch toughness, and a fresh play-caller in Kellen Moore could rekindle aspirations of another title bid.
#JimmySays: The Moore-Hurts partnership seems to be going well so far in training camp, as Hurts has played at a high level through the first seven practices.
Jalen Hurts was rarely at his best in 2023, but he earned a lot of points during a breakout 2022 season in which he led the Philadelphia Eagles to the Super Bowl.
If the NFL handed out conference MVP awards, Hurts surely would have earned that honor in the NFC that year. He ranked in the top five in most key passing categories while also rushing for 760 yards and 13 touchdowns.
Hurts has now rushed for 38 scores in his three seasons as a full-time NFL starter. Only three quarterbacks in the modern era have scored more rushing touchdown in their entire careers. That has to count for something.
Hurts is a scoring machine with unmistakable game-changing ability, even if a knee injury and a crumbling team morale conspired against him in 2023.
Don't be surprised if he puts it all back together in 2024.
#JimmySays: I do think that some of the Hurts detractors suffer from recency bias. Again, the 2024 season is an opportunity for Hurts to show he is closer to the 2022 version than the 2023 version.
The annual Top 40 QB Countdown is over. Always stressful but always revealing to rewatch and rethink about all these guys. Overall, the NFL QB position is in great shape. pic.twitter.com/4ZDyJy95Ol
— Chris Simms (@CSimmsQB) June 11, 2024
#JimmySays: If there's analysis of Hurts from Simms heading into 2024, I couldn't immediately find it. Simms infamously did not include Hurts in his top 40 quarterbacks before the 2021 season, while guys like Case Keenum, Kellen Mond, Taysom Hill, and Sam Darnold made his list. Heading into 2022 Simms had Hurts 25th. He's a little more in line with the consensus on Hurts these days.
2023 was a weird season for Jalen Hurts, who was in the MVP conversation for most of the season before cooling off and posting a passer rating of 77.6 in the final six games. As a result, he drops from four to eight in our rankings this season.
#JimmySays: Hurts' average of the six rankings here? 8.5.
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