September 16, 2024
Eric Hartline/USA Today Sports
The Phillies could be doing a whole lot of celebrating next week.
The Phillies took two of three from the Mets this weekend and are extremely close to clinching an NL East title — their first in over a decade. In fact, they could do it sometime this week.
But the bigger regular season prize is the No. 1 seed in the National League, which brings with it a bye into the divisional round and home-field advantage throughout the playoffs.
What needs to happen for the Phillies to punch the ticket they want into the postseason? An update:
The Phillies' magic number to win the NL East is five, with 13 games remaining. The Braves and Mets are each tied for second place in the division, trailing by eight games apiece. After three games against the Brewers (more on that in a second), the Phillies will travel to Queens to play the Mets four times this coming weekend. There's a strong chance they could wrap things up there — depending on what the Braves do contemporaneously.
It's a matter of when, not if for the division crown.
The top seed in the NL comes with some perks — the biggest of these is home-field advantage in every round of the postseason. Philly has the most home wins in baseball this season, and their home-field advantage in the postseason was abundantly clear in each of the last two Octobers.
Here's a look at all of baseball (including the AL) and where things stand on September 16:
| Team | Record | GB |
| Phillies | 90-59 | — |
| Dodgers | 88-61 | 2 |
| Yankees | 87-63 | 3.5 |
| Brewers | 86-63 | 4 |
| Guardians | 86-64 | 4.5 |
The NL is in good shape to host the World Series this year, and the Phillies hold a tiebreaker over the Dodgers — so in reality they have a three-game edge right now for the top seed in the postseason.`They'll worry about the 1-seed soon, but first...
If the Phillies hold on to that No. 1 seed, they'll get a bye into the NLDS. If they fall behind the Dodgers but still fend off the Brewers for the 2-spot in the NL, they will also be afforded some time to rest in skipping the Wild Card.
It's a little controversial, based on recent history, as to whether the bye is a good thing. It offers between four and five days off to a baseball team that has played 162 games without more than a day off (besides the All-Star break) for six months. The Phillies were actually beneficiaries of not having a bye in each of their last two campaigns. They handled the best two-of-three Wild Card rounds with aplomb. In 2022 they swept St. Louis and then beat the well-rested Braves in four games. In 2023 they swept the Marlins and beat the well-rested Braves in four games again.
In those last two postseasons, teams with a first-round bye went 3-5 in the divisional round.
The Phillies have a monumentally important series in Milwaukee — starting Monday night — as they currently lead the Brewers by four games for that guaranteed bye.
Here's a look at how this series against Rhys Hoskins and company can impact Philly's playoff positioning:
— Corey Seidman (@CSeidmanNBCS) September 16, 2024
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