Postseason scenario watch: Phillies have four tickets left to punch

The Phillies couldn't find a way to win with their fifth starter on the mound (yet again) Thursday night, so with nine games left to play there is a bunch left to play for.

In theory, with some help, the Phils can lock their playoff fate this weekend if they can handle the Mets in New York. Here's how:

An official berth

The Phillies are one win away from technically locking up a postseason berth. With Cristopher Sánchez, Ranger Suárez and Zack Wheeler slated to start in Queens the rest of the weekend, it's likely they'll be able to find at least one win.

The NL East

The Phillies' magic number to win the NL East is four. The Mets are currently behind them by six games, with nine remaining to be played. With three games to go between the two in their current four-game set, the Phils can clinch their first division title since 2011 this weekend by taking two of three from the Mets  

The Braves are technically still breathing, behind by eight games. An Atlanta loss paired with a Phillies win, or the aforementioned two wins by Philadelphia (or two losses by the Braves) would technically knock the Braves out too. 

A first-round bye

In a razor thin battle for the top seed in the NL (we'll get to in a second), the Phillies currently have the best record in baseball at 91-62. They are tied with the Dodgers and lead the Brewers by three in the NL standings. The next most important thing to play for is a direct admission into the second round of the playoffs, the NLDS. 

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It's a little controversial, based on recent history, as to whether the bye is a good thing. It offers between four and five days off to a baseball team that has played 162 games without more than a day off (besides the All-Star break) for six months. The Phillies were actually beneficiaries of not having a bye in each of their last two campaigns. They handled the best two-of-three Wild Card rounds with aplomb. In 2022 they swept St. Louis and then beat the well-rested Braves in four games. In 2023 they swept the Marlins and beat the well-rested Braves in four games again.

In those last two postseasons, teams with a first-round bye went 3-5 in the divisional round.

The Phillies should be in the column of wanting the time off. Getting the rotation set and resting their clearly less than 100% players will certainly be a boost for the Phils, who very much need a breather.

A combination of six wins from the Phils and losses from the Brewers would lock up that No. 2 seed. The Phillies will face the Cubs and Nationals to finish the year (after the Mets). The Brewers face the playoff-contending Diamondbacks, the Pirates and then the Mets to finish their slate.

The No. 1 seed

The top seed in the NL comes with some perks — the biggest of these is home-field advantage in every round of the postseason. Philly has the most home wins in baseball this season, and their home-field advantage in the postseason was abundantly clear in each of the last two Octobers. 

Here's a look at all of baseball (including the AL) and where things stand on September 20:

The NL is in decent shape to have home-field advantage in the World Series this year, and the Phillies hold a tiebreaker over the Dodgers* — so in reality they have a slim one-game edge right now for the top seed in the postseason. This one will come down to the wire. L.A. has a big schedule advantage, playing the lowly Rockies twice with the playoff-bound Padres in the middle.

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