The Phillies' high-water mark for wins this season was back on July 13th, when they were an insane 29 games above the .500 mark through 95 played, had a .652 win percentage and boasted by far the best record in baseball.
The trajectory was there for the team to seriously challenge the 102-win 2011 squad. They were dominant.
With the best pitching in baseball, some of the best hitting too, and a record eight NL All-Stars, the Phils were big World Series favorites one month ago, and it seemed as though they would be juggernauts with the trade deadline sure to help them improve even more.
In each of the last two postseasons, the Phillies peaked at the right time, after regular seasons that saw them do just enough to make the playoffs. There seems to be very little risk of the Phils missing out on playoff baseball this fall. They're still 99.9% to play October baseball according to baseball-reference. But what kind of baseball they'll be playing is the concern.
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Currently holding the second best odds to win the World Series according to ESPN (behind the Dodgers, who they won 5-1 games agains), and tied with the Yankees (who they lost a series to last month), oddsmakers seem confident the team will bounce back.
Should they be? Here's a look at some troubling stats:
| Stat | Before ASB | After ASB |
| Record | 62-34 (1st) | 7-15 (29th) |
| Runs | 477 (3rd) | 95 (23rd) |
| BA | .259 (3rd) | .241 (22nd) |
| ERA | 3.41 (6th) | 5.07 (24th) |
| WHIP | 1.15 (2nd) | 1.41 (24th) |
It's worth noting that the Braves have absolutely fallen on their faces too, with a 5.16 ERA since the All-Star break, one of the few teams struggling worse than the Phillies. They have a one-game lead on the Mets for a Wildcard spot right now and are 9-14, just 1.5 games better than Philly since the break.
Still, only one team in baseball, the putrid White Sox, has a record worse than the Phillies over the last 30 games. Philadelphia's insanely proficient start still has them in a commanding NL East lead, but the season feels anything but commanding.
After dropping three straight in Arizona, the Phillies will finally have a lapse in their brutal summer schedule with the Marlins and Nationals coming to town. If the team can't bounce back in front of home fans and inferior competition, the panic will become real.
“Not our best,” Bryce Harper said after a 12-5 loss to the Diamondbacks. “We're not playing the way we need to be playing right now. Just got to get home and flush this.”
After six games against teams outside the playoff picture, the Phillies will face the Braves twice, the Astros, and the Royals — four straight series against teams above .500 and looking at playoff runs.
Ranger Suarez could be back soon, but there are no real reinforcements left to help. The team needs to find itself, and soon. Otherwise, they might be looking at a reverse 2022 — dominating too early and faltering with an October whimper.
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