October 15, 2024
Brett Davis/USA TODAY Sports
Can the Atlanta Braves finally make serious inroads on the Phillies' lead in the National League East after a series victory this week?
It came too soon — a pivotal offseason for the Phillies as they scratch their heads after an embarrassing loss to the Mets in the NLDS.
We'll look at all of the potential roster changes the team could make ahead of 2025, but for a moment, let's think about manager Rob Thomson, who is becoming a bit like the Joel Embiid of MLB managers. He's really good in the regular season — to the turn of a 250-185 record. His .575 winning percentage is the best for any Phillies manager since 1890. He's made three straight playoff appearances and has improved the team's record in each season.
But in the playoffs, it's been out of gas and then choke job and then collapse. He is 20-14 in October, and has lost every elimination game Philadelphia has played under his tenure.
Thomson is a players' manager and that's been clear for the three years he's been in the city. The team plays for him, rallies around him, and respects him.
“I love you guys, and this is the first step of many more.” 🥹
— Gregg Murphy (@GMurphPhils) September 21, 2024
Rob Thomson’s message to the Phillies after clinching a playoff berth: pic.twitter.com/9l3yL6xkoo
The front office extended him after the team's 2022 World Series run and he'll be under contract until the end of 2025. But will the team let him call the shots as a lame-duck manager?
There aren't exactly alternatives screaming to take his job. Skip Schumaker recently became available, but there aren't a ton of big names out there. Aside from some kind of unexpected move to someone like Raúl Ibanez or Chase Utley, it doesn't feel like a change is imminent despite all of the postseason struggles the team has had of late.
Thomson mismanaged the Phillies against the Mets. Whether or not him making the objective correct decisions would have led to a win in the NLDS against the Mets is an unanswerable question. But he did not put the team in its best position to win. Should he pay with his job for his postseason sins?
• He pulled the lever correctly on starting Cristopher Sánchez in Game 2 and Aaron Nola in Game 3, as each starter pitched relatively well in their only playoff appearances. But in Game 4 with the Phillies facing elimination and the bullpen ailing, he didn't call on Sánchez and instead let the bullpen blow the game. We'll get more into that in just a second.
• After he hit a two-run triple in Game 2 to save the Phillies season (at least to that point), Thomson sat Bryson Stott in Game 3 due to a lefty being on the mound. And then started him a day later in Game 4 against a lefty. Why? Why was Stott's momentum after the big hit not enough to get him in the lineup against a left-hander on one day, but the next Thomson just shrugged and went with his best lineup?
• Also, why did he start Weston Wilson in Game 4? Just for the sake of doing something different? Johan Rojas' defense would have been valuable in Citi Field with the Mets seeing the ball so well.
• Carlos Estévez was the big trade deadline acquisition for this team and he pitched well during the regular season. In the playoffs he didn't pitch in a Game 1 loss (when he should have), and then in Game 2 he was lifted after just throwing eight pitches. In Game 3 he was used, with the Phillies down 6-2, which was short-sighted as the team would likely need him rested in Game 4. And he surrendered the gut-punch grand slam to Francisco Lindor in his final appearance.
• It is fully defensible that Thomson trusted Jeff Hoffman and Matt Strahm early in the postseason. But he kept trying to offer them redemption and it never came — and it cost the Phillies their season. Here's how the duo finished their seasons:
| Date | Result |
| Sept 28 | 4 runs allowed vs Nationals |
| Oct 5 | 3 runs allowed and no outs recorded vs Mets |
| Oct 6 | 3 pitches and one out recorded vs Mets |
| Oct 9 | Loaded the bases to set up Mets grand slam |
| Date | Result |
| Oct 5 | 2 runs allowed, one out recorded vs. Mets |
| Oct 6 | 2 runs allowed in blown save in 9th vs. Mets |
| Oct 9 | Scoreless inning trailing by 3 vs Mets |
Anyway, Sánchez was available. Zack Wheeler should have been available. Thomson seemed clueless managing the Phillies in the NLDS.
It seems likely he'll return for at least one more year and many would argue he's earned it. But something needs to change when October arrives or the same thing will happen next year too.
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