July 17, 2024
The Phillies were the best team during the first half (and then some) of the season, with a 62-34 record at the All-Star break, the best in baseball. They tied a record with eight All-Stars, and made more than a few headlines in Texas over the last few days.
After having a five-day breather, the Phillies will be back on the field in Pittsburgh with the trade deadline less than two weeks away. The headlines won't be stopping.
So how do we see the final 66 games going for the Phillies? Here are 10 bold predictions:
There will be no Brent Rooker, no Luis Robert Jr. and no Cody Bellinger. While all three could help put the Phillies' offense over the top, the team is relatively content with the options it currently has in the outfield. Brandon Marsh is mashing right-handed pitching and could get a platoon partner — but Nick Castellanos' spot in right is pretty much set in stone and Johan Rojas' defense is proving to be valuable in center. Pitching is where the team makes more impactful additions.
This prediction is not that the candidates for these awards — Bryce Harper and Trea Turner for MVP, Zack Wheeler and Ranger Suárez for Cy Young — will not perform well in the second half. All evidence suggests they will. But the Phillies want to win a World Series. And the postseason is a very long and winding road. The Phillies will likely want to move to a six-man rotation to preserve their starters later in the summer. And they'll surely be giving Harper and Turner and other key bats ample time off. The mass total production from their stars might not be enough for awards when all is said and done.
Currently, All-Stars Wheeler, Suárez and Cris Sánchez have better numbers than Nola does. But the trend is going Nola — the big money veteran's way. Assuming that Wheeler continues to dominate (which is not exactly going out on a limb), who will wind up with the second best stats on a loaded pitching staff?
Here's a look at the trio's last three starts':
| Nola | Suárez | Sánchez |
| 6 IP, 1 ER, 9K | 6 IP, 4 ER, 6K | 6 IP, 2 ER, 5K |
| 6 IP, 3 ER, 8K | 5 IP, 5 ER, 7K | 4 IP, 7 ER, 3K |
| 6.2 IP, 3 ER, 9K | 4.2 IP, 6 ER, 0K | 9 IP, 0 ER, 9K |
Nola has been very consistent lately. Sánchez is already at the most innings he's ever pitched in the majors while Suárez will need to find his form again. Yes, it's just three starts, but the competition is going to be better for the rest of the summer and it seems rational to expect the surprising starts to Sánchez and Suárez to revert a bit toward the mean.
The three Phillies who started the All-Star Game this week — they're going to be NL Silver Sluggers, an award given to the best respective hitter at each position in each league. Here's a look at how their offense currently stacks up. Keep in mind that Turner missed more than a month of action and Harper missed 10 games:
| Harper | Turner | Bohm | |
| BA | .301 (2nd) | .349 (1st) | .295 (1st) |
| OBP | .403 (1st) | .395 (2nd) | .348 (2nd) |
| RBI | 61 (2nd) | 32 (10th) | 70 (1st) |
| HR | 21 (2nd) | 11 (7th) | 11 (8th) |
| 2B | 21 (2nd) | 14 (11th) | 33 (1st) |
| WAR | 3.8 (1st) | 2.6 (7th) | 2.5 (4th) |
Harper leads the Phillies with 21 homers. It's not a huge stretch to say that Schwarber and his 19 will eventually pull ahead. But the lefty DH hitting .250? That would be a dream. He's done it just twice in 10 MLB seasons, once at exactly .250 in 2019 with the Cubs and then once more in 2021 when he played for three different teams. Schwarber is currently sitting at .249.
When J.T. Realmuto returns, likely in a week or so, the Phillies will need to pick which backup catcher they want to stick with for the second half. Stubbs is a great locker room presence and a total fan favorite. Both Stubbs and Rafael Márchan have one minor league option remaining. Who would you stick with?
| Stubbs | Márchan | |
| Age | 31 | 25 |
| AB | 108 | 51 |
| Slash | .185/.261/.231 | .294/.345/.549 |
| HR, RBI | 1, 6 | 3, 6 |
The Phillies have an $18 million problem on their hands. Walker will return from the IL over the next few weeks and will assume the 5th starter's spot, because the Phillies don't really have much of a choice. He's struggled to the tune of an ugly 5.60 ERA in 10 starts.
As soon as Spencer Turnbull also returns — he has an ERA under 2 over seven starts of his own — he'll be the team's choice for the No. 5 spot. The Phils will surely add a pitcher, whether it's a bullpen arm or a 5th starter type, at the deadline, making their depth more prominent and their need for Walker less dire. They won't have room for Turnbull in the pen and he'll become the swing man in the rotation heading to the postseason.
This is just a gut instinct, but the Phillies have had a good bullpen despite the stark division between haves (Jeff Hoffman, Matt Strahm, Orion Kerkering) and have nots (Seranthony Dominguez and others). They have the 13th best ERA in the majors at 3.79 and the best strikeout-to-walk ratio in baseball. After recent ugly bullpen performances, many said that an average bullpen is all the Phillies need to dominate elsewhere. And that's what is happening. If they can keep leaning on their All-Stars in Strahm and Hoffman, and potentially add another arm, this can be a strength for the Phils down the stretch.
This is not a huge gamble, as they currently have four more wins than the Guardians with just 66 games left to play. They admittedly have the eighth toughest remaining strength of schedule (their opponents have a collective .509 win percentage), but this team is the best in baseball and will be recognized as such when the regular season is all said and done. A corollary to this prediction is that Philly will win the NL East for the first time in more than a decade and they'll secure a first round playoff bye.
In 2011 the Phillies, led by their four aces (who didn't pitch as well as the current Phillies top four starters, by the way) won 102 games, the team's all-time mark. That's a .630 win percentage. The 2024 team has a .646 win percentage right now — a 105-win pace. To get to 103 wins, Philadelphia needs to win 41 of its final 66 games, which is a .621 win percentage the rest of the way. It's a very high bar to clear — this team will do it.
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