Even after back-to-back losses to the Marlins to cap off a 4-2 road trip (and to end a six-game win streak), the Phillies are all but shoe-ins for a playoff spot and are in pole position for a first-round bye into the divisional series.
Their "magic number" to clinch the NL East over the Mets and/or Braves is 13, meaning some combo of wins and losses by the Phils and either team locks them into playing in October. There are 19 games left.
The Phils trails the Dodgers — as of Monday morning — by one game for the best record in baseball and stand three games up on the Brewers for the No. 2 seed in the National League. They'll have a three-game set in Milwaukee next week to try and lock up that spot.
With the most likely scenario seeing the Phillies clinch a bye, they'd be playing one of five teams in the NLDS: the Brewers, Padres, Diamondbacks, Braves or Mets.
Here's a very early ranking of how Phillies fans should be rooting as they scoreboard watch for the rest of September...
5. Diamondbacks (3-4 this season)
Potential rotation: Zac Gallen, Merrill Kelly, Eduardo Rodríguez
The least desirable opponent is the team that ended the Phillies' season last year. The Phillies took a commanding 2-0 lead in the NLCS with them to the desert and left a different team. They fought as hard as they could before missing the World Series by one game.
This past June, when everything was going right for the Phils, they took two of three at home, outscoring the Diamondbacks 20-7, but when they went to Phoenix in August, it was a different story. The D-backs scored 23 combined runs in the last two games of the set, a series they won three out of four in.
The Phils' 5.10 ERA against Arizona is their worst against any opponent on this list and while the storyline of revenge for last fall might be a draw, this is a team to avoid. The Diamondbacks are comfortably in the second Wild Card slot right now and would likely play the Padres in a best-of-three series to start the postseason. If the Phillies end up with the top seed, they'd face the winner of that set.
MORE: Phillies split set with Marlins after Seth Johnson's disastrous debut
4. The Brewers (3-0 this season, 3 to play)
Potential rotation: Freddy Peralta, Colin Rea, Tobias Myers
We'll learn a lot from the three games these two teams play coming up, but the Phillies dominated the Brewers back in June, holding Milwaukee to two runs in a three-game sweep. The Brewers are running away with the NL Central, but if they finish third in the overall NL standings, they will be forced to play the final Wild Card team — likely either the Braves or the Mets.
Having Rhys Hoksins back in Citizens Bank Park again for a playoff series would be interesting. The Brewers currently lead the entire NL in run differential but they have struggled a bit in September. Also, their rotation is not as intimidating as some of the other teams on this list.
3. The Mets (4-2 this season, 7 to play)
Potential rotation: Luis Severino, Sean Manaea, José Quintana
New York is the other team the Phillies still have on the docket this season, and two of the games were played in London which skews the stats a little. But this is a team the Phillies should feel like they can handle in a playoff series. Philly has hit .261 against them in six games and holds a 2.68 ERA over them as well. With two of the Mets' best starters being southpaws, the Phillies are one of MLB's better-hitting teams against lefties.
It will be interesting to see how the Phillies and Mets match up with a whopping seven more contests to play in September. The Mets will be fighting for their playoff lives, stuck in a brutal battle for the final playoff spot against division rivals in the Braves. Interestingly if the Phillies dominate them in their upcoming matchups, it could help the Braves lock up that postseason spot and eliminate the boys from Queens. The Phillies would face the winner of a Brewers-Braves/Mets matchup in the Divisional Series if they can land the No. 1 overall seed.
2. The Padres (5-1 this season)
Potential rotation: Dylan Cease, Yu Darvish, Joe Musgrove
The Phillies have some amazing memories from traveling to San Diego in recent years, including their NLCS win in 2022 and a three-game sweep there way back in April. In June they took two of three in Philly, and have a plus-17 run differential against the NL West club this season.
The Phils' 2.67 ERA and .267 batting average against San Diego are solid stats, and they have handled recently returned Padres ace Yu Darvish before in the postseason.
1. The Braves (6-7 this season)
Potential rotation: Max Fried, Charlie Morton, Chris Sale
On paper, this is not a matchup the Phillies should want. They have lost seven times to the Braves this season and have a -23 run differential against them across 13 contests. They have hit just .208 against them with an inflated 4.70 ERA.
After six consecutive NL East crowns for the Braves, the Phillies are finally going to unseat them. But as a Wild Card team the last two Octobers, the Phillies owned the Braves in the postseason. In 2022 they beat them in four games in the NLDS. In 2023, they did the same. A week and a half ago, they took three of four from them and flexed the clutch muscles in prime time that have made Philly the league's biggest playoff draw in recent seasons.
If the Braves can hang on and make it to the playoffs and the Phillies can leapfrog the Dodgers for the 1-seed, another Phillies-Braves NLDS rematch is very much in play.
How can you not root for that one?
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