October 04, 2024
James A. Pittman/Imagn Images
Bryce Harper and the Phillies are still chasing after the World Series.
The matchup is set. The Phillies will host the division rival New York Mets to kick off the NLDS on Saturday – a 4 p.m. ET first pitch on FOX.
Will the momentum that propelled the Mets from one of the worst records in baseball to a spot in the sport's elite eight be too much for the 95-win Phillies to handle?
Pundits across the baseball writing world have picked the Phillies to go all the way. But what about our own pundits here at PhillyVoice?
We give our predictions ahead of the Phillies' official start to Red October:
Evan Macy (Sports editor): The Phillies are better on paper. They won the season series 7-6. And they will have their rotation in order. I also feel like at some point, the Mets will be running on fumes. They had that double-header against the Braves that led immediately into the Wild Card series in Milwaukee. They will eventually sputter out, and I think they'll do it against Philly. The Phillies will win the series in four.
Shamus Clancy (Deputy sports editor): Phillies in four in the most torturous five-day stretch Philly sports fans have experienced in the 21st century.
Nick Tricome (Staff writer, Flyers and Phillies): Look, the Mets are coming in hot, which is a prospect that I know scares a lot of fans given the Phillies' own history over the past couple of years. But there isn't a single team in this postseason field that the Phillies can't beat. They're going to be fine here. The big thing for me, and throughout the playoffs, for the Phils is to win the Zack Wheeler starts. Do not let those go to waste.
Adam Aaronson (Staff writer, Sixers and Phillies): The Mets have a 2022 Phillies sort of feel right now -- a team that doesn't know any better but to play well over their heads and ride the wave of optimism. That is not to say they do not have talent -- Francisco Lindor leads the charge as a full-blown superstar shortstop, with plenty of quality hitters making up their lineup -- but they do not have nearly as much talent as the Phillies. Maybe it's the pessimist in me, but I can't get over the undeniable vibes that continue to power New York to new heights -- perhaps exemplified best by Pete Alonso breaking out of a massive slump to save and extend the Mets' season with a game-winning, three-run homer on Thursday night in Milwaukee.
Evan: I have no confidence in Ranger Suárez. He's fallen off a cliff since the All-Star break and has not recovered. My guess is that Rob Thomson and company will slot Cris Sánchez as the No. 3, and will utilize Suárez only when a fourth starter is needed, which would theoretically only be twice in the postseason. If they have series leads when he takes the hill they'll be fine. But if they have anyone besides Zack Wheeler or Aaron Nola on the hill for a must win, my confidence isn't high.
Shamus: The uncertainty behind Zack Wheeler's dominance in the rotation as a whole.
Nick: Aaron Nola. He can be aces for 2-3 starts, but you know that blowup game is always hanging over. You just have to pray that if it does happen, it'll happen in a spot that won't hurt too much. Granted, there are very few of those in the postseason.
Adam: I have little to no faith in the bottom of the Phillies' lineup right now. Bryson Stott had a down year, slashing .245/.315/.356 in 2024. In 29 career postseason games between 2022 and 2023, Stott has gone .189/.275/.278 with a 25.4 strikeout percentage. The team’s outfield remains a question as well. Brandon Marsh is a good hitter against right-handed pitching, but does not appear to be considered an option against lefties. The reverse is true for Austin Hays. Johan Rojas’ glove is magnificent, but his ineptitude at the plate makes him liable to be pinch-hit for. The closest the Phillies have to a sure thing in their outfield is Nick Castellanos, who has endured brutal slumps in each of his October runs with the team. If the Phillies can't get quality at-bats from their non-stars, it will put an enormous amount of pressure on players like Bryce Harper, Kyle Schwarber and Trea Turner.
Evan: I can't say for sure if he's 100% healthy (and really, who is come October), but if Bryce Harper can take advantage of having these five days off and his power stroke is fully there, he could steal the show for yet another October.
Shamus: Zack Wheeler, NLCS MVP and World Series MVP.
Nick: I have a feeling this is going to be the Daycare's run. Each series will somehow have a pivotal moment from either Alec Bohm, Bryson Stott, or Brandon Marsh. The star power is what catches people about the Phillies – Bryce Harper, Kyle Schwarber, J.T. Realmuto, and Trea Turner – but I've believed this for a while now, the Daycare (two of which are homegrown talents in Stott and Bohm) are just as big of a deal to this team as its front-facing stars.
Adam: The Phillies have many noticeable holes in their roster, but one area that remains strong is the back of their bullpen. More specifically, Jeff Hoffman and Matt Strahm have proven that they are capable of handling any high-leverage situations. If the Phillies do make a deep October run, those two will be critical. The addition of closer Carlos Estévez should also enable Thomson to seek out the most crucial spots for Hoffman and Strahm, his two most reliable bullpen weapons.
Evan: The Phillies have been pretty dominant against the NL contenders. They took five of six games during the regular season from both the Dodgers and the Padres and while it's totally different in the playoffs, I don't really fear either team. I think they'll win in six games to advance to the Fall Classic.
Shamus: Yeah, sure, why not? I pick the Eagles to lose almost every week. Let's hit the other end of things.
Nick: Yes. The NLCS is going to be a Phils-Padres rematch. The Padres, just like the Mets, would be riding a hot streak, especially should they beat the Dodgers, but again, there's no club in this field that the Phillies can't beat. They'll do it in six here.
Adam: The Phillies have as good of a roster as any National League team -- and, in turn, as good of a chance of reaching the Fall Classic as anyone. They are without a doubt capable of beating any club in either league. But I cannot shake a few core issues: the weaknesses in the last third of the Phillies' batting order, their shaky bullpen depth behind Hoffman, Strahm, Estèvez and Orion Kerkering, and the many questions surrounding Suárez. Not only do the Mets scare me, but so do the San Diego Padres -- who appear to have reached peak form at the perfect time with the perfect mixture of established stars and exciting young players after sweeping the Atlanta Braves. The Los Angeles Dodgers' starting pitching is very much in flux, but no team with Shohei Ohtani, Mookie Betts, Freddie Freeman and co. can be ruled out. I do not believe the Phillies will reach the World Series for the second time in three years, even though they have enough talent to do so.
Evan: I actually think they will. I don't have any particular conviction for this prediction based on any match up or gut instinct — I just feel like this is the best version of one of the best teams in franchise history. And I believe that the Bryce Harper-Kyle Schwarber-Zack Wheeler-Trea Turner etc etc Phillies will get at least one trophy. With the extra rest, and a league overflowing with parity this year, I think this will be their best chance to make it happen. Phillies in six.
Shamus: Phillies in seven over the New York Yankees.
Nick: They'll beat the Royals in six games. How's that for poetic?
Adam: If I am to say the Phillies will fail to reach the World Series, I certainly cannot say they will win the World Series. But much, much crazier things have happened, right?
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