August 05, 2024
Brett Davis/USA TODAY Sports
Who will Phillies manager Rob Thomson be able to trust when October arrives?
One win can really change the tenor of a city, can't it?
For weeks, the sky was falling for the Phillies. But one miraculous Brandon Marsh catch and Bryce Harper resurgent game later, the team was able to fly to Los Angeles for a pivotal three-game set against the Dodgers with some positive spirits.
With the trade deadline in the rearview mirror and the team staring down a potential NLCS preview, now is as good of a time as any to project what the team's 26-man roster could look like in October:
J.T. Realmuto, Bryce Harper, Bryson Stott, Alec Bohm, Trea Turner, Austin Hays, Nick Castellanos, Kyle Schwarber
Phillies manager Rob Thomson appears to be rolling with eight everyday pieces in his lineup with one platoon. There are a few questions here, the main one being if Hays can perform well enough against right-handed pitching to be in left field on a daily basis in October. The veteran outfielder has crushed left-handed pitching all year, but between his time with the Phillies and Baltimore Orioles is slashing a putrid .207/.260/.328 in 2024. How long of a leash will Hays have against right-handed pitchers, and how dire would the situation have to get for Thomson to slide Marsh back to left field and insert Johan Rojas in center field as an everyday player?
On May 18, Stott sported an .855 OPS and seemed on track to shatter his career-best numbers in every respect. But then a slump that lasted more than two months began, and at times it has been uncomfortable to watch the 26-year-old second baseman at the plate. As a result, he has lost some opportunities to play against left-handed pitching, but Stott may be finding his footing once again. In his last nine games (seven starts), Stott has 10 hits in 31 at-bats. He has been noticeably more aggressive, only drawing one walk during that span.
What a year it 2024 has been for Bohm, who was named a starter in the first All-Star Game appearance of his career and just continues to collect hits. The third baseman who turned 28 years old on Saturday enters the crucial series in Los Angeles with hits in seven straight games and a 22-game on-base streak. Bohm leads all of baseball with 39 doubles on the year, five more than second-place Jarren Duran of the Boston Red Sox and eight more than the three players tied for third.
Brandon Marsh, Johan Rojas
Marsh and Rojas are effectively platooning in center field for the remainder of the season unless Hays disappoints to the extent that the Phillies feel the need to stomach Rojas' weak bat in the lineup on an everyday basis once again (with the benefit of adding his elite defense in center field and putting Marsh in left field where he is particularly excellent).
Since returning to the majors on June 28, Rojas is batting .246 but only has two extra-base hits and an OPS of 593.
Marsh was in the midst of a brutal 0-24 slump entering July 27, and his OPS was the lowest it had been since April 1. But Marsh might have found his groove again: in eight games (33 plate appearances) since breaking out of that slump, he is slashing .300/.364/.567.
Don't look now, but Marsh has also collected four hits in his last four at-bats against left-handed pitching. It is difficult to imagine him receiving enough opportunities against southpaws to establish himself as someone who can face them consistently this October, but the Phillies surely hope he will be an everyday outfielder in the long-term.
Garrett Stubbs, Edmundo Sosa, Weston Wilson OR Kody Clemens OR David Dahl
A very real argument could be made that the team should activate Rafael Marchán for its postseason roster and not use Stubbs, but it is difficult to imagine the Phillies risking ruffling any feathers to upgrade a roster spot that will not be used unless Realmuto suffers an injury. For what it's worth, Stubbs has been on the team's postseason roster for every series it has played during his two years in Philadelphia. He has caught one inning and had zero plate appearances.
The Phillies alternated between the left-handed-hitting Nick Maton and the right-handed-hitting Dalton Guthrie as the last member of their postseason roster from series to series based on the strengths of the opposing team's bullpen, and will likely take a similar approach this time around. If the bullpen they are facing has plenty of left-handed arms, Wilson will be the guy. If they lack impressive lefty relievers, it would likely be Clemens, with Dahl having an outside shot at a nod.
Dahl is the clear underdog here, not just because he is not currently on the team's 40-man roster, but because he does not offer any defensive optionality. He can man left field, while Wilson and Clemens are capable of playing in a corner outfield spot or in the infield (Wilson is a much better defensive player than Clemens across the board, but the two players have similar spectrums of positional versatility).
Aaron Nola, Cristopher Sánchez, Ranger Suárez, Zack Wheeler
Last season, the NLDS had an extra off day that allowed teams to only use a three-man starting rotation, as Suárez, Wheeler and Nola got the job done against the Atlanta Braves. But they will need to have four starting pitchers this time around should the series not result in a sweep, and Sánchez can fit right in as the fourth man.
If the Phillies get reach the NLCS for the third straight season and enter a seven-game series, Thomson could get creative with how he uses his starting pitchers. Thomson has often relied on starters to throw an inning or two of relief in postseason action -- doing so on days where the starter would typically be throwing a bullpen session, as to not interrupt their schedule.
One possible path: having Wheeler start Game 1 of a series with Suárez available out of the bullpen against a lefty pocket of the order (Shohei Ohtani and Freddie Freeman, for example, if they do face the Dodgers), then having Suárez start Game 3, while Nola starts Game 2 with Sánchez available in relief in a similar situation before he starts Game 4.
José Alvarado, Carlos Estévez, Jeff Hoffman, Orion Kerkering, Matt Strahm
If Thomson has all five of these bullpen weapons fresh and throwing strikes when October arrives, the Phillies will have a tremendous formula for winning games. Having this many high-leverage relievers is a massive luxury, particularly because two of them are southpaws who dominate left-handed hitters.
We all know by now that in the postseason, Thomson is extremely aggressive in using his bullpen and optimizing matchups -- likely even more than the average manager is in today's game. And to the skipper's credit, it has often worked.
Estévez has been excellent since arriving in Philadelphia, and it appears as if Thomson will treat him as the team's closer. This gives him somewhat of a safety net in terms of using his other four trusted bullpen arms earlier in games if the matchups line up.
Hoffman had his worst outing of the season in Seattle on Saturday, but he has been too dominant since arriving in Philadelphia -- particularly in 2024 -- for me to feel too concerned about the veteran right-hander.
Strahm has unusual reverse splits so far this season, having much more success against right-handed hitters than left-handed hitters in 2024. My gut tells me that Thomson will not focus too much on that and try to use Strahm against lefty-heavy pockets of opposing orders, but Alvarado might be his preferred option against most lefties.
Alvarado and Kerkering are both making some progress after stretches of bad outings caused by the high-powered arms simply not landing enough strikes.
Tanner Banks
Banks has had a very strong start to his Phillies tenure as the replacement for Gregory Soto as the team's third left-hander out of the bullpen. Across three innings pitched since being acquired from the Chicago White Sox, Banks has faced nine hitters. Only one reached base, and after drawing a walk, that batter was picked off at first base.
Against left-handed hitters, Banks has been one of the most effective pitchers in baseball this season; lefty bats are batting .177 with a .474 OPS against him on the year. But he remains a work in progress when it comes to getting right-handers out. His role in October will likely be finishing off an inning if there are two outs and a tough lefty or two are due up. If that situation does not present itself, though, he has the ability to be used in a multi-inning role as a long reliever of sorts.
It is hard to argue that Phillies President of Baseball Operations Dave Dombrowski and co. did not do enough to strengthen what was already an impressive bullpen, as they got the best right-handed arm on the market in Estévez and paid a pretty penny to do so. But another right-handed arm who could have slotted in here would have given the unit some depth on that side behind Estévez, Hoffman and Kerkering would have made Thomson's job a bit easier come October.
Tyler Phillips, Spencer Turnbull, Taijuan Walker
Walker is closer to returning from the Injured List than Turnbull, but both are expected back well in advance of the postseason. Turnbull has been far more effective, though.
Whenever Turnbull does return, it seems unlikely that the team would stretch him back out into a starter. When he was moved to the bullpen earlier in the year before being reinserted into the starting rotation and promptly suffering his injury, the thought was that he would be used in a multi-inning role. But now that the team is lacking a fourth trusted right-handed reliever and Walker figures to be available as a mop-up man during October, perhaps when Turnbull returns the team will look to ramp him up in a traditional reliever mold. He certainly has the ability to be useful in that kind of role, though it is uncharted territory for someone who had little to no experience out of the bullpen before 2024.
Phillips was never going to be as good as he looked during his complete game shutout last week, but he is also much better than his disastrous outing in Seattle on Friday night -- 1.2 innings pitched, three home runs allowed and eight earned runs -- would indicate. When Suárez and Walker are both healthy, it will be interesting to see if the team sends him down to Triple-A to keep him stretched out as a starting pitcher in case of another injury, or if they shift his focus to a relief role in hopes of putting him on the postseason roster.
Yunior Marte, José Ruiz
The Phillies will likely give Marte every chance to establish himself as that fourth right-hander, particularly before Turnbull returns if they do choose to make Turnbull a one-inning option for the remainder of the year. Marte definitely has the ability to become a solid reliever in the majors, but the consistency as a strike-thrower just has not been there. He has been pummeled by left-handed hitters this season after a strong start to the season before being placed on the Injured List.
Ruiz has done a commendable job eating up regular season innings for the Phillies, with the occasional high-leverage situation mixed in if other options are unavailable, but is likely just a placeholder for the time being.
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