Phillies playoff scenario watch: The hunt for the NL East, a first-round bye continues

The Phillies are about 99.6% locks to make the MLB postseason. That's not a concern this season.

But there are a ton of things for the Phillies to play for. With a seven-game lead in the NL East, a division crown for the first time since 2011 is within view. So too, is the chance to take a few days off to start October — something that seems extremely appealing for a team as banged up as the Phillies are.

There are also some very intriguing and apropos Wildcard races going on in the National League that could have a big impact on the Phillies' World Series chances.

Here's a look at where things stand, and what the Phillies need to do to lock up preferable playoff positioning:

The NL East

There are 23 games and seven series remaining in the regular season. The Phillies lead the Braves by seven games in the division, but they do not face them again. They do, however, face the Mets — who are 7.5 games back and a half game behind Atlanta for the final Wildcard spot — seven times.

That means, oddly, Braves fans will become Phillies fans during those contests, three next weekend in Philly and four the following week in Queens. 

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The magic number for Philly to lock up the division is 17, and the magic number for them to eliminate the Mets is 16. That means some combination of wins and losses from the Braves and Mets to equal that number will clinch things for the Phils. 

The 2007 Mets had a seven-game lead over the Phillies in the NL East and proceeded to lose 12 of their last 17 games, with the Jimmy Rollins Phillies winning the damn thing on the last day of the season. There's still a lot of baseball left.

The No. 1 seed

The top seed in the NL comes with some perks — the biggest of these is home-field advantage in every round of the postseason. Philly has the most home wins in baseball this season, and their home advantage in the postseason was abundantly clear in each of the last two Octobers. 

Here's a look at all of baseball (including the AL) and where things stand on September 5:

The NL is in good shape to host the World Series this year, and the Phillies are just a game in the win column away from being in pole position (they own the tie-breaker against the Dodgers).

A first-round bye

Just as — if not more important — is an automatic berth into the Divisional Round, which is offered to the two best teams in each league. The Phillies are a relatively comfortable 2.5 games ahead of the Brewers for that second bye. 

It's a little controversial, based on recent history, as to whether the bye is a good thing. It offers between four and five days off to a baseball team that has played 162 games without more than a day off (besides the All-Star break) for six months. The Phillies were actually beneficiaries of not having a bye in each of their last two campaigns. They handled the best two-of-three Wildcard rounds with aplomb. In 2022 they swept St. Louis and then beat the well-rested Braves in four games. In 2023 they swept the Marlins and beat the well-rested Braves in four games again.

In those last two postseasons, teams with a first-round bye went 3-5 in the Divisional round.

Still, the Phillies should be in the column of wanting the time off. Bryce Harper is banged up. So is Alec Bohm. The pitching staff could definitely use some rest, not to mention there's always a chance of being upset in the Wildcard round in the short best-of-three format.

The schedule could do the Phillies a big favor in all three of these aforementioned races. A look at the remaining strength of schedule for the NL playoff hopefuls:

The Mets have a rough slate. The Dodgers have an easy slate. But the Phillies have an easier road ahead than the Brewers — whom they face in just under two weeks — and the Diamondbacks. It's very possible the three-game set they have in Milwaukee from September 16-to-18 will give them a chance to all but lock up that No. 2 seed. Just like their winning three of four against the Braves last week set them up to win the NL East.

There is still nearly a month of action left, but the Phillies will be fighting tooth and nail to set up a third straight deep postseason run.

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