Phillies playoff opponent rankings: Who should the NL East champs want to face?

If the playoffs started today (they do not), the Phillies would face the winner of the 3-vs.-6 seed three-game Wild Card series. They have already clinched the NL East and a bye into the NLDS. The Dodgers will have the other bye, and are a likely opponent if the Phillies make it to the NLCS.

Right now, that would be either the Diamondbacks or Brewers. But there is a lot of potential movement in seedings that could happen before the playoffs begin. The Phillies are a stone's throw away from getting the 1-seed, which would pit them against the winner of a 4-vs.-5 matchup (and by our estimation, an easier opponent). The Wild Card teams themselves are still duking it out — and it could stretch all the way to a Monday double-header between the Braves and Mets for the final spot in the playoffs.

Here's how things stand as the Phillies rest Thursday:

The Brewers and Mets will play three games this weekend before the hurricane makeup games against the Braves — who play the Royals over the weekend. The Diamondbacks and Padres will finish the regular season duking it out, but San Diego has already clinched, leaving Arizona with a lot to play for. 

The Phillies could still face any of these five teams in a Round 2 bout — to be hosted in South Philly starting on Saturday, October 5. Here's the order of preference for Phillies fans doing some weekend scoreboard watching, including the Phils' record against each team this season:

5. Diamondbacks (3-4 this season)

Potential rotation: Zac Gallen, Merrill Kelly, Eduardo Rodríguez

The least desirable opponent is the team that ended the Phillies' season last year. And with the Braves still alive and kicking, there's a chance the D-backs fall out of the bracket if they don't stay ahead of Atlanta.

Back in October of 2023, the Phillies took a commanding 2-0 lead in the NLCS with them to the desert and left a different team. They fought as hard as they could before missing the World Series by one game.

This past June, when everything was going right for the Phils, they took two of three at home, outscoring the Diamondbacks 20-7, but when they went to Phoenix in August, it was a different story. The D-backs scored 23 combined runs in the last two games of the set, a series they won three out of four in. The Phils' 5.10 ERA against Arizona is their worst against any opponent on this list and while the storyline of revenge for last fall might be a draw, this is a team to avoid. 

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4. The Brewers (4-2 this season)

Potential rotation: Freddy Peralta, Colin Rea, Tobias Myers

The Phillies ran into some trouble last week in Milwaukee, as the offense fell flat twice — scoring just once in the series opener and just twice in a walk-off loss in the finale. But they did sweep the Brew Crew at home earlier in the year, and it's a roster that is lacking in household name star power (aside from former friend Rhys Hoskins).

One of the most well-rounded teams in the league, the Brewers are in the top 10 of all MLB teams in slash line on offense, and ERA on the mound. They will be the 3-seed for a reason and are a threat to the Phillies' NLCS hopes.

3. The Mets (7-6 this season)

Potential rotation: Luis Severino, Sean Manaea, José Quintana

The Mets sort of have the "it" factor. They screamed out of nowhere to reach playoff contention and they are giving the Braves all they can handle as the two could go down to the wire for the final playoff spot rewarded in the NL. They had the Phillies' number in Queens last weekend, taking three of four games from them. If they're able to inch and crawl into the postseason bracket, they could have the same kind of momentum that has driven recent Wild Card successes like the Phillies, Diamondbacks, Rangers and other teams.

The Phillies know this team well, and they have the better squad on paper. But momentum could be an issue if this New York team is able to win a Wild Card series on the road. They also could be running on fumes, potentially playing games in Milwaukee, then two in Atlanta, then potentially Arizona or San Diego on consecutive days.

2. The Padres (5-1 this season)

Potential rotation: Dylan Cease, Yu Darvish, Joe Musgrove

The Phillies have some amazing memories from traveling to San Diego in recent years, including their NLCS win in 2022 and a three-game sweep there way back in April. In June they took two of three against the Padres in Philly, and have a plus-17 run differential against the NL West club this season.

The Phils' 2.67 ERA and .267 batting average against San Diego are solid stats, and they have handled recently returned Padres ace Yu Darvish before in the postseason. The Padres are solidly in the four-slot in the bracket and they should remain there.

1. The Braves (6-7 this season)

Potential rotation: Max Fried, Charlie Morton, Chris Sale

On paper, this is not a matchup the Phillies should want. They have lost seven times to the Braves this season and have a -23 run differential against them across 13 contests. They have hit just .208 against them with an inflated 4.70 ERA. 

After six consecutive NL East crowns for the Braves, the Phillies finally unseated them. But as a Wild Card team the last two Octobers, the Phillies owned the Braves in the postseason. In 2022, they beat them in four games in the NLDS. In 2023, they did the same. A few weeks ago, they took three of four from them and flexed the clutch muscles that have made Philly the league's biggest playoff draw in recent seasons.

The Braves are on the outside looking in, and will need to handle the Royals before potentially sweeping the Mets in a double-header Monday. But if they do get there, they're going to be tired, they are already extremely injured, and the Phillies are in their heads.

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