May 09, 2024
Bill Streicher/USA Today Sports
Bryce Harper needs to stay hot as divisional games approach for the Phillies.
A few years ago, divisional games held a lot more importance in Major League Baseball. There were 76 of them.
Now after the schedules have been made more equal — with each MLB team playing every other team in two series per season — there are 54 of them.
The Phillies are 3-3 so far against the NL East, dropping two of three to start the year against the Braves and winning two of three against the Nationals. They're about to play 10 in a row.
One of the biggest reasons the Phillies were unable to really put up a fight in the NL East last season is that they struggled against their division rivals. Last year they finished below .500 against the division and as a result, had to make the postseason as a Wildcard team.
| Season | NL East | The rest |
| 2023 | 25-27 | 65-45 |
| 2024 | 3-3 | 23-9 |
The Braves won the division by 14 games in 2023. It was their sixth crown in a row.
Currently the Phillies lead is two games. It's the longest they've held a lead in the NL East in years.
The major difference at this point of the season for the current squad is their level of play. Last year on May 9, the Phillies were 17-19. As they head into a three-game series in Miami Friday, they are 26-12.
Interestingly, according a baseball reference projection, the Braves are still more likely to win the division. This, despite the fact that the Phillies have more wins right now, and the 12th toughest schedule to left play (they have had the second easiest so far) while the Braves have the seventh toughest schedule remaining (after playing the 19th toughest thus far).
The NL East as a whole is also potentially a weaker division right now. Last season the other four teams combined for a .515 percentage, with three of the six NL playoff teams coming from the division. This season, they are winning at just a .466 clip.
The Phillies have feasted on lesser competition so far in teams like the lowly Rockies, Padres and Giants. They should be able to win the division if they can have a solidly winning record against the Marlins, Nationals and Mets — and win the season series against the Braves. Simple, right?
In the coming weeks, the Phillies will have 19 of their next 22 games against bad teams (the lone exception being a home matchup against the defending World Series champion Rangers on May 21). After that stretch, they'll play 12 of 20 games versus teams with winning records, and if you include the Diamondbacks as a formidable team (they're currently below .500) that will be 15 of 20 teams from June 3 through June 26 that are intimidating baseball teams. Their June slate includes a series against the first place Brewers and the first place Orioles — as well as a pair of games across the pond in London against the Mets.
A different kind of test will come for the Phillies in June. But padding the ledger with wins against the Marlins, Mets and Nationals is the key way to withstand the uptick in competition.
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