January 12, 2024
Joe Camporeale/USA Today Sports
Bryce Harper celebrates smacking a home run in the 2023 NLCS.
The Phillies have hit a quiet spot in the winter. It's unlikely that any major free agents are on the way. The Phillies are mostly locked into a roster that's had major success the last two years. Players will report to Clearwater next month. As Phils fans await another season with postseason hopes, it's an apt time to take stock of what the national media is saying about the Fightins.
To begin... what are Bryce Harper's chances at making history?
An MLB hitter has not won the Triple Crown since 2012 when MVP Miguel Cabrera hit .330 with 44 home runs and 139 RBI. Before that, you'd have to go all the way back to Carl Yastrzemski's 1967 campaign. It's rare. That's undeniable.
MLB.com's Brian Murphy discussed which star batters could potentially be the next Triple Crown winner. While sluggers Juan Soto, Aaron Judge, Shohei Ohtani and Yordan Alvarez made up the "Favorites" tier, Phillies MVP Bryce Harper was mentioned in the "Contenders" section.
Of Harper, Murphy writes:
Harper had one of those magical seasons in 2015, when he bashed an NL-best 42 homers and finished with a .330 average, three percentage points shy of a batting title. Six years after winning his first MVP Award, Harper garnered a second with 35 dingers and a .309 average in 2021. Although he has exceeded 100 RBIs only once in his 12-year career, his RBI outlook is helped by the Phillies' strong lineup. Plus, Citizens Bank Park should aid Harper's homer tally. The key for him will be his strike zone judgment; Harper's chase rate was near the 70th percentile in 2015 and '21. It was below the 25th percentile in each of the past two seasons, and he batted .290 during that span. [MLB.com]
The homer and batting average portions are attainable, but it's hard to envision the RBI numbers being there. Harper's high in RBI came in his first season with the Phillies in 2019 with 114. That was "only" good enough for eighth in the National League. In his MVP 2021 season, Harper knocked in just 84 runs, far from the senior circuit's top 10.
The lone Phillie to win the Triple Crown as a hitter was Chuck Klein in 1933, as he batted .368 with 28 home runs and 120 RBI. Two Philadelphia A's players accomplished it: Nap Lajoie in 1901 and Jimmie Foxx, also in 1933.
Speaking of Harper, the departure of Rhys Hoskins leaves Harper as the Phillies' clear-cut first baseman. That's a major step up from the quad-A players who filled in at times at first throughout the 2023 season. MLB.com's Andrew Simons writes that the Phillies upgraded at first base with Harper's new full-time spot more than any other team in the sport:
Alec Bohm, Kody Clemens, Jake Cave and Darick Hall combined for roughly 500 first base plate appearances for the 2023 Phillies, and while Bohm hit well there, the overall results were not spectacular. But then along came Bryce Harper, who had begun the season rehabbing from Tommy John surgery and returned to the lineup as a DH on May 2 before starting 36 games at first after the All-Star break. Once he shook off some rust, Harper recaptured his two-time MVP form down the stretch, slashing .299/.431/.665 with 16 homers over his final 49 games. Now he’s the Phillies’ full-time first baseman, with the club opting to move on from free agent Rhys Hoskins, who missed all of 2023 due to injury. [MLB.com]
The shutting of the revolving door at a position that requires offensive firepower is a welcomed development for the Fightins.
In predicting the next 10 World Series winners, Major League Baseball's site has a Phillies championship on the way... but not until 2030. The crystal ball has them prevailing over the Detroit Tigers:
After signing his seven-year, $172 million deal this offseason, Aaron Nola bonded himself not just to the Phillies for the rest of this decade, but also Bryce Harper (signed through 2031) and Trea Turner (2033). You would certainly imagine the Phillies are winning at least one World Series by then, so hey: Why not the last season the triumvirate is likely to be together? As for the Tigers, hey, they’re building something interesting, all told, and I’m just going to assume, for the sake of Tigers fans, that they’ve extended both Riley Greene and Spencer Torkelson by then so they’re both on the team for this season. [MLB.com]
The Phillies went 11 years in between playoff appearances until that magical 2022 run. A six-year wait for eternal glory isn't that bad in comparison.
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