September 07, 2024
Sam Navarro/Imagn Images
Does Phillies ace Zack Wheeler have a chance at chasing down Atlanta Braves left-hander Chris Sale and winning the National League Cy Young Award?
Phillies ace Zack Wheeler dazzled on Friday night in Miami, only allowing one run and two hits across six strong innings. Wheeler could have continued into the seventh inning -- and perhaps beyond -- but his offense erupted, so the decision to pull him back was an obvious one.
Wheeler's consistency in 2024 has been nothing short of phenomenal. He is in the final season of a five-year, $118 million contract that has become one of the most successful free agent deals in franchise history -- not to mention one of the best-valued free agent deals signed by a starting pitcher in recent baseball history. During Spring Training, he agreed to a massive three-year extension worth $126 million that will keep him in Philadelphia through the 2027 season.
According to nearly any metric available, Wheeler has been the best or second-best starting pitcher in all of baseball since joining the Phillies ahead of the 2020 season. His performances in October have been absolutely outstanding, too, and after never making a postseason appearance before 2022, he is now perhaps known as the most reliable big-game pitcher there is.
As far as personal achievements go, there is only one accomplishment Wheeler has not been able to attain -- and it is one he has become open about striving for. Wheeler has never won a Cy Young Award, and at various points earlier this season the 34-year-old right-hander was considered the favorite to win the prestigious honor in the National League.
In 2021, many believed that Wheeler was given a raw deal when the NL Cy Young went to Corbin Burnes, then of the Milwaukee Brewers, despite Wheeler racking up 46.1 more innings pitched than Burnes. Suddenly, this season became Wheeler's best chance to avenge that, but an unlikely competitor emerged: a revitalized Chris Sale, who in the prior four years as a member of the Boston Red Sox made just 31 starts. Sale was traded to the Atlanta Braves and is having one of the best seasons of his marvelous career, staging a stunning turnaround.
Sale and Wheeler may be the two most decorated active pitchers to not have a Cy Young trophy to date, but one of them will have their first at the end of this season. Despite Wheeler's continued dominance, Sale is considered by most to be the clear frontrunner with just three weeks and change remaining in the regular season.
So, what do the numbers tell us about this fierce competition? Take a look:
| Stat | Zack Wheeler (28 GS) | Chris Sale (26 GS) |
| ERA | 2.59 | 2.46 |
| WHIP | 0.96 | 1.01 |
| IP | 173.2 | 160.2 |
| FIP | 3.19 | 2.02 |
| K/BB | 4.13 | 6.06 |
| AVG | .193 | .218 |
| OBP | .255 | .267 |
| SLG | .325 | .318 |
| fWAR | 4.7 | 6.1 |
Ultimately, Sale has the advantages in most statistical categories that voters care about most in today's day and age. There is no doubt that Wheeler has had another Cy Young-caliber season, but it may be the second time he does so and simply runs into someone believed to be posting stronger numbers.
On top of it all, the Phillies are on pace to wrap up the National League East race with plenty of time to spare, while the Braves could be battling for a Wild Card slot until Game 162. That is, of course, fantastic news for the Phillies, but it could spell trouble for Wheeler's Cy Young candidacy. If the Braves feel the need to ride Sale until season's end, while the Phillies rightfully scale back Wheeler's workload in preparation for October, Wheeler's advantage in terms of volume could shrink notably.
Wheeler has two more starts than Sale; barring an injury or early division clinch, the argument for Wheeler deserving the award will be built on his superior volume (as well as his superior ability to prevent traffic on the bases) But Wheeler and Sale are averaging nearly the exact same length of starts (Sale is retiring 18.53 batters per start, while Wheeler is setting down 18.60 hitters per outing), and the fact is that Sale has outperformed Wheeler in both rate-based stats like ERA, FIP and K/BB ratio and cumulative stats like Wins Above Replacement.
Wheeler has been the game's most consistent pitcher since arriving in Philadelphia and has topped that off by being one of the single best postseason starting pitchers of all time -- in 11 starts, Wheeler's 0.726 WHIP is the lowest of any major-league starter with at least 30.0 innings pitched in major-league history. A pitcher with that resume never winning a Cy Young Award would be a travesty.
But only so much is within Wheeler's control, and the fact that he is likely headed for another runner-up finish should not diminish what he has been able to do over the last half-decade. If he winds up being the ace of a staff that wins a World Series, Wheeler will not have any trouble sleeping at night without a Cy Young trophy.
MORE: Phillies playoff scenario watch
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